Morehead State vs Louisville prediction: Flory Bidunga and a rebuilt Louisville test Morehead State's offensive glass

A roster built from scratch

Louisville spent the offseason replacing nearly an entire rotation. By Nov. 7 the No. 11 Cardinals will have one game behind them to show how the pieces fit. Morehead State arrives at the KFC Yum! Center with a blunt way to test a new group: chase every missed shot.

Players on Louisville's current roster accounted for just 11.4% of last season's minutes. That makes the 2025-26 profile a weak guide to this team. Last season's group went 24-11 and lost to Michigan State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Ryan Conwell, Isaac McKneely and J'Vonne Hadley graduated, Sananda Fru transferred to Marquette and Mikel Brown Jr. declared for the NBA Draft.

Pat Kelsey restocked with six transfers and a three-man freshman class. Jackson Shelstad averaged 15.6 points at Oregon. Seth Trimble and LJ Wells add two more high-usage scorers, though their status runs through a courtroom. An appeals court ruled both ineligible on Oct. 2. A Jefferson Circuit Court judge then granted a temporary injunction on Oct. 16 restoring their eligibility for the season, and that ruling remains subject to further court developments.

Adrian Wooley is the main returner, and his offensive rating of 120.1 last season suggests he can carry a bigger role. Freshman center Obinna Ekezie Jr. had offseason surgery, and Kelsey said in September he was ahead of schedule. Arkansas transfer Karter Knox was cleared for full basketball activities in early October.

Morehead's one real weapon

Morehead State's best skill last season was offensive rebounding. The Eagles grabbed 36.4% of their own misses, 30th in Division I. The other end of the glass hurt them: they collected only 65.7% of opponents' misses, which ranked 338th.

Bidunga is the problem for that plan. He averaged 9.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game at Kansas. He also shot 64% from the floor, so he punishes a defense that sends bodies to the offensive glass and leaves the paint thin behind it.

If Bidunga and Wells hold the defensive boards, Morehead loses the extra possessions it needs to stay close. If Louisville's own misses keep falling back to the Cardinals, the Eagles' weak defensive rebounding turns into a stream of second shots.

Where the threes come from

Last season Louisville took 52.9% of its shots from three, fourth-most in the country. Much of that volume left with Conwell, who made 112 threes, and McKneely, a 39.5% shooter. The newcomers lean differently. Trimble shot 28.6% from deep at North Carolina, and Bidunga attempted two threes all season. Expect a more inside-out attack.

Morehead sat at the far end of the spectrum, taking 30.6% of its shots from three, 346th in Division I. Its defense let opponents make 34.6% of their threes, which ranked 247th. That leaves room for Louisville's remaining shooters, Wooley chief among them, to get comfortable early.

The gap and the setting

Last season's final adjusted ratings measure points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. They put Louisville 17th in net efficiency at 27.4 and Morehead State 282nd at -10.9. Morehead still went 20-13 under Jonathan Mattox, now in his third season, and brings a 14-man roster that includes several freshmen.

The last meeting, in November 2024, ended Louisville 93, Morehead State 45. Louisville opens its season against Chattanooga on Nov. 2, so this will be its second game. Tip is noon ET Saturday on the Cardinals' home floor.