Monmouth vs Rhode Island prediction: Rhode Island's turnover problem walks into Monmouth's ball-hawking defense

Both defenses want the ball

The Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off opens with two programs that won games the same way last season: by taking the ball away. Rhode Island forced turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions, 14th of 365 in Division I. Monmouth was not far behind at 20.6%, 25th.

The difference is what happened when the roles flipped. Rhode Island gave the ball away on 19.2% of its own trips, 327th nationally, while Monmouth was closer to average at 217th. Archie Miller's guards have to handle pressure that looks a lot like their own. Monmouth also ranked 48th in steal rate last season, so those turnovers tend to be live balls that become transition baskets the other way.

The caveat is roster change. Rhode Island added Dylan Williamson from Towson and Jason Fontenet II from UC Santa Barbara, so last season's ball-security numbers belong partly to players who are gone.

Rhode Island's shot problem

The Rams' offense finished last season 234th in adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and the jump shot was a big reason. Rhode Island took plenty of threes, ranking 101st in attempt rate, but made just 31.1%, which ranked 323rd.

Monmouth's perimeter defense did not take much away, allowing opponents to shoot 34.1% from three, 219th nationally. If Rhode Island's new pieces shoot it better, this is where the Rams can create separation.

Inside, the picture favors the defenses. Monmouth made only 48.9% of its twos last season, 307th, and Rhode Island held opponents to 49.3% inside the arc, 87th. Monmouth also played bigger, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.0 inches to Rhode Island's 76.5.

Whistles could swing it

Rhode Island got to the line often last season, ranking 83rd in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). The Rams also sent opponents there constantly: their opponent free throw rate ranked 340th.

That suits Monmouth, which drew fouls at only a modest rate but made 74.7% of its free throws, 90th nationally. In a slow game where every possession counts, free throws can settle the margin. Neither team finished the defensive glass well last season, with Monmouth 285th and Rhode Island 274th in defensive rebound percentage, so second chances may matter too.

Stakes on a neutral floor

The ratings separate these teams only a little. Rhode Island closed last season 136th in adjusted net efficiency, while Monmouth finished 172nd. Rhode Island's edge came from its defense, which ranked 67th by that measure.

The moods differ. Monmouth finished 19-15 in what was called its best season in the CAA, ending with a 75-69 loss to Hofstra in the conference title game. Rhode Island went 16-16 and was picked 12th of 14 in the Atlantic 10 preseason poll. This is also the last season of Miller's five-year contract, so every early result carries extra weight in Kingston.

This is only the second meeting between the programs. Rhode Island won the first in 2008-09. The event page lists a 4 p.m. ET tip on NESN Nation, with Providence and Nebraska playing the second game.