Merrimack vs UAlbany prediction: Merrimack's ball-hawking defense starts over in UAlbany's Broadview Center

A program running it back without the runners

Merrimack reached the MAAC title game last March before falling 64-54 to Siena, closing a 23-11 season. UAlbany went 11-21. That gap looks wide, but it describes two teams that mostly no longer exist, and the inaugural America East-Metro Challenge gives both their first look at who they are now.

Merrimack returns only 36.3% of last season's minutes and 28.8% of its points, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide at best. Kevair Kennedy (18.4 points a game) is gone, and Ernest Shelton (15.9) left for Boston College. Tye Dorset is the anchor who remains, a 34-game starter who scored 11.7 a night. The scoring help has to come from newcomers like Iona transfer Denver Anglin, who averaged 9.3 points but shot 29.9% from three.

UAlbany's continuity is harder to measure. Dwayne Killings enters his fifth season, and the roster lists a wave of freshmen, including Erwann Bussing, U-Mier Graham, Petar Miovic and Moustapha Ndao. No report has settled who starts.

The turnover battle

The likeliest carryover for Merrimack is its defense, built by Joe Gallo over ten seasons. Last season the Warriors forced turnovers on 20.5% of opponent possessions, 30th nationally, and turned that into a defense that held opponents to an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 46.7, 23rd in the country.

That pressure lands on a UAlbany offense that struggled to hold the ball last season. The Great Danes turned it over on 18.4% of their possessions, 280th of 365. With a roster leaning on freshmen, ball security is the first thing to watch in Albany. Dorset, who averaged 1.8 steals last season, is the returner most likely to make it hurt.

Second chances are UAlbany's opening

Merrimack's defense had one glaring hole last season: it gave up the glass. The Warriors grabbed 60.1% of opponent misses, which ranked 365th, last in Division I. UAlbany went the other way, rebounding 33.8% of its own misses, 87th nationally.

That is the matchup most likely to swing this game. Merrimack's size also took a hit when KC Ugwuakazi, who blocked 2.2 shots a game off the bench, departed. UAlbany shot well inside the arc last season, ranking 81st in 2-point percentage, and putbacks are the easiest twos there are. If the Great Danes can survive the turnovers, the offensive boards give them a path.

Slow pace, short trips to the line

Merrimack dragged games into the mud last season, averaging 63.1 possessions per 40 minutes, 357th nationally. Fewer possessions tend to narrow the gap between two rebuilding teams.

The free-throw line tilts toward Merrimack. UAlbany's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 364th last season, and the Great Danes made just 66.1% of their tries, 354th. Merrimack shot 78.8% at the line, seventh in the country, though many of those makers have left. For context on where UAlbany started from, last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked the Great Danes 317th. The tip time remains unconfirmed.