Mercer vs Davidson prediction: Davidson's crawl against Mercer's sprint sets the terms of the home opener

Two speeds, one floor

Mercer played fast last season. The Bears averaged 70.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 44th in Division I, and scored 82.7 points per game. Davidson went the other way, at 64.6 possessions, 319th of 365, and held opponents to 67.9 points a night.

That gap is the first thing to settle on Nov. 7. Davidson's slow style kept scores low and leaned on a defense that allowed 104.0 points per 100 possessions last season, 77th nationally. Mercer's offense was the sharper unit, scoring 116.6 points per 100 possessions (66th) and turning it over on just 14.7% of trips, 44th in the country. A team that rarely gives the ball away is harder to slow down, because it keeps getting into its offense instead of handing the opponent easy breaks.

The opponent-adjusted ratings tell a cooler story about Mercer. Adjusted efficiency is points per 100 possessions, corrected for the quality of opponents, and by that measure the Bears finished last season 180th in net rating against Davidson's 111th. Mercer's raw numbers were stronger than its opponent-adjusted ones.

Davidson lives behind the arc

Davidson built its offense on threes last season. The Wildcats took 44.7% of their shots from deep, 76th nationally, and made 36.0% of them, 64th. That profile pushed their effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times) to 53.6%.

Mercer's defense did not take that shot away well. Opponents hit 34.0% from three against the Bears, which ranked 209th. If Davidson's shooters find their range early in a home opener, a slow pace works in its favor: fewer possessions means each made three matters more, and Mercer gets fewer chances to answer.

Boards and the foul line

Mercer's weak spot last season was finishing defensive possessions. The Bears grabbed only 67.5% of available defensive rebounds, 298th in the country. Davidson was not built to punish that, though, with an offensive rebound rate of 28.7% that ranked 266th. Neither team should count on second chances.

The free-throw line is where Mercer could gain ground. The Bears drew fouls at a free throw rate of 37.5% last season (free throws attempted per field goal attempt), 104th nationally, while Davidson's defense ranked 246th in opponent free throw rate. Davidson has a bigger problem of its own at the stripe. The Wildcats made just 65.4% of their free throws last season, 359th of 365. In a close, low-possession game, that number can decide the final minute.

New faces and a long road

Last season's numbers are a rough guide here, since both rosters have changed. Davidson announced seven newcomers in June, including freshmen Eetu Heinonen, Malik Davis and Tom Stoiber and redshirt freshman Quadri Bashiru. Matt McKillop enters his fourth season in charge. A single Davidson injury snapshot from Oct. 19 listed no injuries, and nothing newer has surfaced. No availability news has turned up for Mercer.

Mercer arrives under third-year coach Ryan Ridder, coming off 19 wins, the program's most in a single season since 2013-14. SoCon coaches still picked the Bears seventh in the preseason poll. The schedule does them no favors: Mercer plays at Virginia Tech on Nov. 5, and the Davidson game is part of a stretch of five straight road games. Davidson gets its home opener at Belk Arena.