Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins prediction: Noah Otshudi's drives test Youngstown State's last-ranked rim protection
Youngstown State finally gets a home game, but its interior defense blocks almost nothing and fouls constantly, and Marshall's guards create their own shots.
Youngstown St Penguins covered the closing spread (Marshall Thundering Herd -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 157.5.
| Spread | Pick'em |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158.5 |
- A fast, high-scoring game decided inside the arc, where Marshall's guards attack a Youngstown State defense that blocks almost nothing.
- Otshudi against YSU's interior: he scores 21.7 a game, and opponents make 57.3% of their twos against the Penguins.
- The line moved from YSU +0.5 to a pick'em. Youngstown State's adjusted net rank (83rd) is far kinder than its raw rank (295th).
Nothing stands at the rim
Youngstown State has played three road games and finally opens Beeghly Center on Saturday afternoon. The tip moved to 1 p.m. ET after a national flight ground stop scrambled the weekend. Both teams are 1-2, the market can't separate them, and the clearest mismatch sits near the basket.
The Penguins block 1.6% of opponent two-point attempts, 364th of 364 in Division I. Opponents have noticed. They take only 27.1% of their shots from three, 362nd, because the paint is open: they make 57.3% of their twos. YSU also sends teams to the line constantly. Its opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 52.4%, 348th.
That sets up well for Marshall's backcourt. Noah Otshudi carries a 31.1% usage rate and scores 21.7 points a game on 55.3% shooting. He has reached double figures in 28 of 34 games since the start of last season. Bryce Slay adds 19.0 a game. One catch: Marshall rarely draws fouls, with a free throw rate that ranks 334th. If the Herd turn those drives into trips to the line, the game tilts their way.
Which Penguins are real
Youngstown State returns just 5.2% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say little about this group. This season's numbers argue with each other. Adjusted for opponents, YSU's net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed) ranks 83rd. Unadjusted, it ranks 295th.
The schedule explains the gap. YSU won at St. Bonaventure, which ranks 48th in adjusted net, and then lost by 13 at Central Michigan, ranked 68th. Haynes and Jeff Nwankwo both posted career scoring highs in that loss. Marshall's lone win came against Buffalo, ranked 262nd, and its adjusted net sits 195th.
Ohio State is the one common opponent. Marshall lost there 74-84, and YSU lost 65-89. Both covered as big underdogs. Horizon League coaches picked YSU ninth in the preseason.
Threes and free throws
Youngstown State lives behind the arc: 47.2% of its shots are threes, 67th nationally. Linus Holmstrom, a VMI transfer, has made 11 of 26. Marshall's defense has held opponents to 22.4% from three, 8th. Three games of opponent shooting can swing quickly, and YSU's volume will test that number early.
The free throw line could decide a close game. Marshall fouls nearly as often as YSU does, with an opponent free throw rate of 48.7%, 333rd. The Penguins will get chances, but they make 61.8% of their free throws, 330th.
Pace, glass and the number
Marshall plays fast, at 75.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 43rd nationally. YSU has allowed 83.7 points a game. The total sits at 159.5, down from the 160 our feed first saw.
Second chances favor the Herd on the defensive end. Marshall grabs 78.3% of opponents' misses, 21st nationally, and YSU's offensive rebound rate ranks 273rd. Neither team crashes its own offensive glass, so most possessions should end after one shot.
The spread opened in our feed with YSU getting 0.5 and has moved to a pick'em, with the Penguins at -113 on the moneyline. Both teams are 2-1 against the spread. Marshall had five days of rest to YSU's four, but YSU finally plays in front of its own crowd.
Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins line movement and odds
| Book | Herd ML | Penguins ML | Herd spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -112 | -112 | +0.5 (-112) | o158.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (-108) | o157.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 | -1 (-110) | o158 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -125 | +104 | -1.5 (-110) | o156.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+105) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 | -2 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Marshall Thundering Herd: 68% of bets, 78% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins: 32% of bets, 22% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Marshall Thundering Herd -1.5: 31% of bets, 45% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins +1.5: 69% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 83% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 157.5: 17% of bets, 0% of the money.
Key players
- Noah Otshudi (Marshall): He averages 21.7 points on a 31.1% usage rate and makes 90% of his free throws.
- Bryce Slay (Marshall): After 2.1 points a game last season, he is scoring 19.0 with a 68.9% effective field goal percentage.
- Fazl Oshodi (Marshall): He has made 26.1% of his 23 threes despite a 33.1% usage rate.
- Linus Holmstrom (Youngstown State): He has hit 42.3% of his threes, and he scored 26 at St. Bonaventure.
- Dom Aekins (Youngstown State): He averages 6.3 assists, but he has made only 33.3% of his free throws.
- Jaiden Haynes (Youngstown State): His 68.4% effective field goal percentage leads the regulars, and he scored 15 at Central Michigan.
Numbers that matter
| YSU block rate | 1.6% | Last of 364 Division I teams, which leaves the rim open for Marshall's drivers. |
|---|---|---|
| YSU opponent free throw rate | 52.4% | Ranked 348th; Marshall's guards need to turn contact into free throws. |
| Marshall opponent 3-point % | 22.4% | Ranked 8th, and it faces a YSU team that takes 47.2% of its shots from three. |
| YSU adjusted net rank | 83rd | Far better than its raw 295th, because its early schedule was tough. |
| Current spread | 0.0 | The line moved from YSU +0.5 to a pick'em. |
Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins: quick answers
What was the final score of Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins?
Marshall Thundering Herd 71, Youngstown St Penguins 74 (final). Youngstown St Penguins covered the closing spread (Marshall Thundering Herd -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 157.5.
Who is favored in Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins?
Neither team: the game is a pick'em at the sportsbooks.
What is the over/under for Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins?
The total is 158.5 points.
When is Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins?
No: Marshall Thundering Herd has stayed at -1.5, and the total moved from 159.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown St Penguins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Marshall Thundering Herd: 68% of bets, 78% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins: 32% of bets, 22% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Marshall Thundering Herd -1.5: 31% of bets, 45% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins +1.5: 69% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 83% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 157.5: 17% of bets, 0% of the money.