Marist vs UMass Lowell prediction: Marist brings back its defensive identity, not its scorers, to Lowell

A defense with new faces

Marist won 19 games last season almost entirely on one end. The Red Foxes allowed 95.7 points per 100 possessions, fourth in Division I, and opponents made just 28.3% of their threes, second nationally. The offense rarely had to be good, and it wasn't.

The catch is who is left. Players on this season's roster accounted for only 26.9% of last season's minutes. Justin Menard, the team's top scorer at 12.9 points a game, is gone, along with fellow guards Rhyjon Blackwell and Elijah Lewis and starting forward Jaden Daughtry. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. Coach John Dunne, entering his ninth season after no reported coaching change, has to rebuild the defense in a new group of bodies by early November.

Who carries Marist now

Graduate guard Jadin Collins-Roberts is the anchor, a full-time starter who played 30.3 minutes a game last season. He set up teammates more than he scored, and his jumper is a question: he made 23.8% of his threes.

The more intriguing returner is forward Myles Parker, who came off the bench and hit 38.5% from deep with an offensive rating of 120.6, the most efficient line among the players back. The new scoring load likely falls to Jack Graham, a transfer from New Hampshire who averaged 11.2 points last season. A roster heavy on freshmen fills in behind them.

Lowell's edge on the glass

UMass Lowell's best weapon last season was second chances. The River Hawks rebounded 34.8% of their own misses, 61st nationally, while Marist's defensive rebounding ranked 83rd. If the rebuilt Red Foxes frontcourt is slow to box out, that is where Lowell finds points.

The ball-security matchup cuts the other way. Marist forced turnovers on 19.3% of possessions, 64th, and Lowell coughed it up at a rate that ranked 250th. Free throws will not swing much: Marist got to the line less often than all but four teams, and Lowell shot 66.7% at the stripe, 347th.

Lowell's reset

Pat Duquette starts his 14th season in Lowell after a 15-18 finish that ended with a 91-69 loss to UMBC in the America East semifinals. League coaches picked the River Hawks seventh this fall. The defense was the problem: last season's final adjusted rating, which accounts for opponents, allowed 118.2 points per 100 possessions, 326th.

The current roster lists four freshmen, and several 2025-26 contributors, including Austin Green, Angel Montas Jr. and Xavier Spencer, don't appear on the visible portion of it. Lowell hasn't publicly settled who replaces them, so treat its returning core as unconfirmed until it plays.

Shape of the game

Neither team pushed the pace last season. Marist ranked 250th in tempo and Lowell 119th, which points to a modest possession count in a Sunday early-afternoon tip at Costello Athletic Center. No spread or total has been posted. The two programs' published schedules have not fully agreed on this date, so confirm the matchup and tip time before placing anything. These teams have not met since Lowell won 76-73 on this floor in 2017.