Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins prediction: Le Moyne's passing tests a Manhattan team that can't shoot straight
Two rosters rebuilt almost from scratch collide in Syracuse, and Manhattan's cold jumper may matter more than Le Moyne's turnovers.
Le Moyne Dolphins covered the closing spread (Manhattan Jaspers +2.5). The game went under the closing total of 147.5.
| Spread | Le Moyne -2 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 147.5 |
- Expect a choppy, half-court game: Le Moyne moves the ball and fires threes, while Manhattan grinds toward the rim and the foul line.
- Trevor Roe and Le Moyne's shooters against a Manhattan defense that has given up 60.9% inside the arc.
- Le Moyne is now a 2.5-point favorite with a 147.5 total; the line has moved from -4.5 to -2.5 and the total from 148.5, and Manhattan has gone under in all three of its lined games.
Two teams starting over
Almost nobody in this building on Saturday night played meaningful minutes for these programs last winter. Le Moyne brings back 4.0% of last season's minutes, Manhattan just 7.4%. The Dolphins returned two letterwinners, reserves Trevor Roe and Josiah Lee, and surrounded them with 10 Division I transfers. Manhattan coach John Gallagher rebuilt with transfers Ben Tweedy (Colgate) and Josiah Sabino (Niagara) plus Ben Pearce, the reigning Division III National Player of the Year.
That makes last season's team numbers close to useless here, and both 1-2 records come with asterisks. Le Moyne's lone win was a home rout of Elmira that props up its season averages. Manhattan lost at home to UAlbany as a favorite, then rallied at Maine by outscoring the Black Bears 20-8 over the final 8:26.
Manhattan's missing jumper
Manhattan's missing jumper The Jaspers have a clear plan and can't finish it. They shoot just 24.6% from three, 346th of 364, and their free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt) of 45.7% ranks 67th. Getting to the line should be a weapon. Instead Manhattan converts 59.5% there, 343rd nationally.
The exception is Pearce, an 81.3% free throw shooter who sank four in the final 22 seconds at Maine. Tweedy is the other swing piece. He hit 38.5% from deep at Colgate last season but has made 3 of 12 so far. If either of them warms up, Manhattan's offense changes shape.
Le Moyne gives the Jaspers a path to the line. Its opponent free throw rate ranks 216th, and its own rate ranks 355th, so the Dolphins rarely earn the same freebies back.
Le Moyne shares it, and gives it away
Le Moyne's offense runs on passing. Its assist rate of 75.0% of made baskets ranks 3rd in the country, and it takes 48.4% of its shots from three, 53rd. Roe, a little-used reserve last season, now carries the load at 16.3 points per game and has hit 40% of his 30 three-point tries. He made five threes in the opener at Nebraska.
Ty Francis gives the Dolphins an inside counter, shooting 65% from the field after a 19-point night against Elmira. That matters because Manhattan's defense allows 60.9% on two-pointers, 341st nationally.
The catch is ball security. Le Moyne turns it over on 22.0% of possessions, 324th, though Manhattan's defense forces turnovers only at a middling rate (191st). Both teams also rebound poorly on the defensive glass, so second chances could swing a tight game.
Where the number sits
Where the number sits The market has Le Moyne -2.5 with a 147.5 total. The line has moved from Le Moyne -4.5 since our feed first logged the game, with the total shaving a point from 148.5. That price leans on the home floor more than on form. Opponent-adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for schedule) rates Manhattan at -5.5, 284th, and Le Moyne at -9.3, 330th.
The total sets up a tempo tug-of-war. Le Moyne plays fast, 107th in pace, while Manhattan is 266th and scores 64.3 points per game. The Jaspers have stayed under in all three of their lined games, and they average 26.7 first-half points, 350th in the country. A slow start from Manhattan would make the total hard to reach.
Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins line movement and odds
| Book | Jaspers ML | Dolphins ML | Jaspers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -140 | +2.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +104 | -157 | +1.5 (-114) | o147.5 (-120) |
| DraftKings | +154 | -200 | +4.5 (-120) | o149.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 | +2.5 (-115) | o147.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 | +2 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +116 | -148 | +2.5 (-114) | o146.5 (-120) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -145 | +2.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +105 | -135 | +1.5 (-105) | o147.5 (-115) |
Where the money is on Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Manhattan Jaspers: 60% of bets, 75% of the money; Le Moyne Dolphins: 40% of bets, 25% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Le Moyne Dolphins -1.5: 53% of bets, 54% of the money; Manhattan Jaspers +1.5: 47% of bets, 46% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 12% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 147.5: 88% of bets, 100% of the money.
Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins stats (this season)
| Stat | Manhattan Jaspers | Le Moyne Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 101.1 (316th of 364) | 103.0 (289th of 364) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 106.6 (168th of 364) | 112.3 (327th of 364) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -5.5 (284th of 364) | -9.3 (330th of 364) |
| Pace | 68.0 (267th of 364) | 72.8 (107th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 46.0% (318th of 364) | 54.4% (128th of 364) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 52.9% (284th of 364) | 47.2% (154th of 364) |
| Turnover rate | 18.6% (225th of 364) | 22.0% (324th of 364) |
| Offensive rebound % | 28.0% (281st of 364) | 27.7% (285th of 364) |
| 3-point % | 24.6% (346th of 364) | 34.1% (164th of 364) |
| Free throw rate | 45.7% (67th of 364) | 21.4% (355th of 364) |
Key players
- Ben Pearce (Manhattan): The reigning Division III Player of the Year averages 11.3 points and makes 81.3% of his free throws on a team that shoots 59.5%.
- Ben Tweedy (Manhattan): He shot 38.5% from three at Colgate last season but is 3 of 12 so far.
- Josiah Sabino (Manhattan): He broke out for 18 points and 9 rebounds in the comeback win at Maine.
- Ognjen Stankovic (Manhattan): The Akron transfer pulls down 7.3 rebounds per game, critical for a team ranked 302nd in defensive rebounding.
- Trevor Roe (Le Moyne): He leads Le Moyne at 16.3 points per game with a 28.8% usage rate and 40% shooting from three.
- Ty Francis (Le Moyne): The Northeastern transfer is shooting 65% from the field and scores 12.0 points in 17.7 minutes.
- Leandro Gysel (Le Moyne): He averages a team-high 5.0 assists for the nation's 3rd-ranked assist-rate offense.
- Jayden Teat (Le Moyne): The Sacramento State transfer adds 4.7 assists per game but is shooting 29.2% from the field.
Numbers that matter
| Manhattan 3-point % | 24.6% | Ranked 346th of 364, it leaves the Jaspers dependent on the foul line. |
|---|---|---|
| Manhattan free throw % | 59.5% | Ranked 343rd, it blunts a free throw rate that ranks 67th. |
| Le Moyne assist rate | 75.0% | Third in the country, the engine of a three-heavy offense. |
| Le Moyne turnover rate | 22.0% | Ranked 324th, the Dolphins' biggest leak against any defense. |
| Le Moyne spread | -4.5 | Unchanged since first seen, even though adjusted ratings rate Manhattan higher. |
Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins: quick answers
What was the final score of Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins?
Manhattan Jaspers 62, Le Moyne Dolphins 76 (final). Le Moyne Dolphins covered the closing spread (Manhattan Jaspers +2.5). The game went under the closing total of 147.5.
Who is favored in Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins?
Le Moyne is favored by 2 points (Le Moyne -2).
What is the over/under for Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins?
The total is 147.5 points.
When is Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 6:05 PM ET.
Where is Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins played?
Ted Grant Court, Syracuse, NY.
Has the line moved for Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins?
Yes: Manhattan Jaspers opened +2 and is now +2.5, and the total moved from 149 to 147.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Manhattan Jaspers vs Le Moyne Dolphins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Manhattan Jaspers: 60% of bets, 75% of the money; Le Moyne Dolphins: 40% of bets, 25% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Le Moyne Dolphins -1.5: 53% of bets, 54% of the money; Manhattan Jaspers +1.5: 47% of bets, 46% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 12% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 147.5: 88% of bets, 100% of the money.