Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams prediction: Colorado State's veteran shooters target Loyola's open perimeter
Loyola's rebuilt defense walls off the paint but hands opponents threes, and Colorado State brings back the shooters to make that trade hurt.
Loyola (Chi) Ramblers covered the closing spread (Loyola (Chi) Ramblers +7.5). The game went under the closing total of 151.5.
| Spread | Colorado State -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151 |
- Colorado State should win the perimeter and the foul line; Loyola's path to keeping it close runs through second-chance points.
- Pascarelli, Booth and Jorgensen against a Loyola defense allowing 35.7% from three, 284th nationally.
- Colorado State is favored by 7.5, down from 9.5 when our feed first saw the game, and the total has slipped from 152.0 to 151.0. Loyola just allowed 107 points at Air Force.
The perimeter is the open door
Loyola Chicago's new defense has a clear shape. Opponents are making just 37.9% of their twos, 18th in Division I, so the Ramblers have shut down the paint. The trade-off is everything outside it. Opponents launch 49.1% of their shots from three against Loyola, the 38th-highest share in the country, and they are hitting 35.7% of them, 284th.
That is a dangerous trade against this Colorado State roster. The Rams shot 38.5% from deep last season, 11th nationally, and the core of that shooting is back. Josh Pascarelli made 41.5% of 147 attempts last season, and Carey Booth is at 40% this year. Pascarelli also put any health worries to rest by scoring 21 against Portland State on Nov. 11.
The Rams are a two-way scoring threat on their own floor. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts a three as 1.5 makes, sits at 59.4%, 40th nationally. If Loyola keeps chasing shooters off the line, Colorado State can still punish it inside, where it hits 62.6% of its twos.
Loyola's lifeline is the glass
The Ramblers' best weapon is the miss. They grab 40.4% of their own misses, 48th nationally, and forward Jason Schofield averages 8.7 rebounds. Colorado State's defensive rebounding is solid, ranking 97th, so those second chances won't come free.
At the other end, the Rams barely crash. Their offensive rebound rate of 18.1% ranks 360th of 364, which spares Loyola from its weak defensive glass. This game is likely to come down to one shot per Colorado State trip, and Loyola needs to win extra possessions to make up for its own shooting. The Ramblers are making 29.4% of their threes, 274th.
Free throws tilt toward the Rams
Loyola rarely gets to the line, ranking 337th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), and it hits only 66.0% when it does. Its defense also sends opponents to the line at a rate that ranks 295th.
Colorado State is built to profit from that. The Rams make 80.3% of their free throws, 24th nationally. Late in a close game, that gap matters, and against a 7.5-point spread it matters even more.
A rebuild with a warning label
Drew Valentine, in his sixth season, rebuilt Loyola almost from scratch after a 9-24 finish. Players back from last season account for just 14.6% of last season's minutes, and only Xavier Amos and Nic Anderson return as letterwinners. Center Miles Rubin left for Tennessee. Last season's numbers tell you little about this team.
This season's numbers don't tell you much more yet. Loyola beat The Citadel (271st in adjusted net efficiency) and West Georgia (306th), by more than 20 each. Then it went to Air Force, trailed 50-35 at halftime and lost 107-93 as a 10.5-point favorite. Air Force ranks 251st. The adjusted ratings still put Loyola 96th, ahead of Colorado State at 185th, but three games make for a thin sample.
Colorado State, in its first Pac-12 season under second-year coach Ali Farokhmanesh, kept far more of its roster together: 57.9% of last season's minutes return. The Rams won last season's meeting 80-67 in Chicago.
Where the market sits
Colorado State is favored by 7.5; the line has moved from 9.5 since our feed first saw the game, and the total has slipped from 152.0 to 151.0. The Rams are 1-2 against the spread despite going 3-0, failing to cover as a double-digit favorite against both Montana State and Idaho. Loyola is 2-1 against the spread.
Both teams play at an identical pace of 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes. Colorado State's last three totals went over twice.
Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams line movement and odds
| Book | Ramblers ML | Rams ML | Ramblers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +275 | -375 | +7.5 (-105) | o151.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | +290 | -385 | +8.5 (-121) | o151.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +245 | -305 | +7.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +290 | -380 | +7.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +290 | -375 | +8 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +280 | -360 | +7.5 (-102) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +300 | -375 | +7.5 (+100) | o151.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams
On the Kalshi moneyline: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers: 33% of bets, 13% of the money; Colorado St Rams: 67% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado St Rams -8.5: 59% of bets, 33% of the money; Loyola (Chi) Ramblers +8.5: 41% of bets, 67% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 57% of bets, 19% of the money; Under 151.5: 43% of bets, 82% of the money.
Key players
- Dayan Nessah (Loyola Chicago): The Cleveland State transfer averages 14.7 points on 56.3% shooting with an offensive rating of 124.6.
- Guillaume Grotzinger (Loyola Chicago): He averages 8.0 assists but is shooting 39.3% from the field.
- Jason Schofield (Loyola Chicago): The Marist transfer averages 8.7 rebounds and is shooting 71.4% from the field.
- Donald Hand Jr. (Loyola Chicago): He scored a season-high 25 at Air Force after shooting 22.6% from three at Boston College last season.
- Jase Butler (Colorado State): He averages 13.3 points and 6.3 assists with an offensive rating of 133.
- Josh Pascarelli (Colorado State): He scored 21 against Portland State and made 41.5% of his threes last season.
- Carey Booth (Colorado State): A Pac-12 impact player pick, he averages 12.0 points and is shooting 40% from three.
- Kyle Jorgensen (Colorado State): He scored 19 against Idaho and made 40.2% of his threes last season.
Numbers that matter
| Loyola opponent 3-point % | 35.7% | Ranks 284th, and it comes with one of the country's highest opponent three-point attempt rates. |
|---|---|---|
| Loyola offensive rebound % | 40.4% | 48th nationally and Loyola's best path to extra possessions. |
| Colorado State free throw % | 80.3% | 24th nationally, against a Loyola defense that ranks 295th in opponent free throw rate. |
| Loyola returning minutes | 14.6% | Almost nothing from last season's 9-24 team carries over. |
| Spread | -9.5 | Colorado State's number has held since our feed first recorded it. |
Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams: quick answers
What was the final score of Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams?
Loyola (Chi) Ramblers 73, Colorado St Rams 58 (final). Loyola (Chi) Ramblers covered the closing spread (Loyola (Chi) Ramblers +7.5). The game went under the closing total of 151.5.
Who is favored in Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams?
Colorado State is favored by 7.5 points (Colorado State -7.5).
What is the over/under for Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams?
The total is 151 points.
When is Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams?
Yes: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers opened +8.5 and is now +7.5, and the total moved from 152.5 to 151.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers: 33% of bets, 13% of the money; Colorado St Rams: 67% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado St Rams -8.5: 59% of bets, 33% of the money; Loyola (Chi) Ramblers +8.5: 41% of bets, 67% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 57% of bets, 19% of the money; Under 151.5: 43% of bets, 82% of the money.