Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons prediction: Air Force wants a track meet; Loyola Chicago wants a grind
Joe Crispin's Falcons are running near the top of Division I, while Drew Valentine's rebuilt Ramblers play among the slowest teams in the country, and the glass may settle who gets their way.
Air Force Falcons covered the closing spread (Loyola (Chi) Ramblers -10.5). The game went over the closing total of 161.5.
| Spread | Loyola Chicago -10.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 160 |
- Loyola should control the boards and the scoreboard if it drags this into a half-court game; Air Force needs steals and transition to stay close.
- Loyola's offensive rebounding, 13th nationally, against an Air Force defensive glass ranked 333rd.
- Loyola has moved from -8.5 to -10.5 and the total from 155.5 to 159.5, while both Loyola games this season went under.
Whose tempo wins out
Air Force under first-year coach Joe Crispin looks nothing like the team that went 3-29 last season. The Falcons are averaging 79.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 15th of 364. Crispin arrived from Division III Rowan with a 116-55 career record, and he has his roster running.
Loyola Chicago lives at the other end of that scale. The Ramblers play at 64 possessions per 40 minutes, 337th nationally, and both of their wins stayed under totals of 143.5 and 145.25. Both Air Force games with a line went over, against totals of 163.5 and 161.
This afternoon's tip at Clune Arena carries a total of 159.5, up from 155.5 when our feed first saw it. The market is betting the Falcons drag the pace upward. Whether Loyola lets them is the first question of the game.
Twelve new Ramblers
Valentine, in his sixth season, brought in 12 new players after a 9-24 finish. Players on this roster logged just 14.6% of last season's Loyola minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. Air Force is the opposite: it brings back all five starters and 98.3% of last season's minutes.
The new pieces have clicked early against weak competition. Cleveland State transfer Dayan Nessah is scoring 17.0 points per game on 65% shooting. Guillaume Grotzinger, a point guard from France's Elite 2, is handing out 8.5 assists a game, but he is shooting 35% from the field. Kansas transfer Jayden Dawson was granted temporary eligibility and was practicing as of Nov. 4; his permanent ruling is still pending. Loyola listed no injuries on a Nov. 7 report.
Best's hands, Loyola's ball
The freshman who changes Air Force's ceiling is Grant Best. He is scoring 19.7 points per game with 4.3 steals, tied the school record with seven steals against Calumet, and went 16-for-16 from the line against Idaho State. The Falcons rank 18th in steal rate, the share of opponent possessions ending in a steal.
Loyola's ball security is middling so far, with a turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) of 16.4%, 128th. That is where Air Force can manufacture the transition chances its tempo depends on.
The Ramblers can pressure back. They force turnovers at a 28.1% rate, 15th nationally, against an Air Force offense that has protected the ball far better than last season's group, which ranked 358th.
Second chances decide it
The cleanest edge in the packet sits on the glass. Loyola grabs 46.0% of its own misses, 13th in the country. Air Force secures only 61.8% of opponent misses, 333rd.
That matters more because the Falcons struggle to score in the half court. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, is 43.5%, 332nd, and they are hitting 25.6% from deep. Wright State exposed it in a 102-71 rout.
Loyola's defense has held opponents to a 36.9% effective field goal mark, 12th, though The Citadel and West Georgia were rated 349th and 304th. Air Force is a step up in tempo, if not in shooting.
What the number says
Loyola is favored by 10.5 across nine books, up from 8.5. The Ramblers covered both games as double-digit favorites. Air Force covered as a 5.75-point favorite against Idaho State and missed badly as a 12.25-point underdog at Wright State.
Loyola comes in on six days of rest, and this opens a road swing that continues at Colorado State on Nov. 14. It is the first meeting since 1981, and Air Force trails the series 2-5.
- Does Loyola rebound its misses or leak out against the Falcons' pace?
- Best's steal count against Grotzinger's handle.
- Whether Air Force can make enough threes to punish a defense allowing plenty of them.
Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons line movement and odds
| Book | Ramblers ML | Falcons ML | Ramblers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -625 | +450 | -10.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -590 | +410 | -10.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | -550 | +410 | -10.5 (-112) | o161.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -650 | +425 | -10.5 (-115) | o162.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -575 | +420 | -10.5 (-115) | o162 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -630 | +450 | -10.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-108) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -600 | +400 | -10.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons
On the Kalshi moneyline: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers: 52% of bets, 68% of the money; Air Force Falcons: 48% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers -11.5: 54% of bets, 53% of the money; Air Force Falcons +11.5: 46% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 33% of bets, 36% of the money; Under 161.5: 67% of bets, 64% of the money.
Key players
- Dayan Nessah (Loyola Chicago): Leads Loyola at 17.0 points per game with a 142.2 offensive rating.
- Guillaume Grotzinger (Loyola Chicago): Averages 8.5 assists on a 29.5% usage rate but shoots 35% from the field.
- Chris Jeffrey (Loyola Chicago): Scores 10.0 points per game off the bench with 4.0 assists.
- Jayden Dawson (Loyola Chicago): Has made 4 of 11 threes while playing on temporary eligibility.
- Grant Best (Air Force): Averages 19.7 points and 4.3 steals per game.
- Kam Sanders (Air Force): Carries a team-high 28% usage rate at 18.7 points per game.
- Caleb Walker (Air Force): Pulled down 11 rebounds against Idaho State, the Falcons' best hope on the glass.
- Lucas Hobin (Air Force): Bounced back with 16 points against Idaho State after a scoreless shooting night at Wright State.
Numbers that matter
| Air Force pace | 79.8 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 15th in Division I under first-year coach Joe Crispin. |
|---|---|---|
| Loyola pace | 64 | Ranks 337th, setting up a clear clash over the number of possessions. |
| Loyola offensive rebound % | 46.0% | Ranks 13th nationally and targets Air Force's weakest area. |
| Air Force defensive rebound % | 61.8% | Ranks 333rd, leaving room for Loyola second chances. |
| Spread | -10.5 | Loyola's line, up from -8.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons: quick answers
What was the final score of Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons?
Loyola (Chi) Ramblers 93, Air Force Falcons 107 (final). Air Force Falcons covered the closing spread (Loyola (Chi) Ramblers -10.5). The game went over the closing total of 161.5.
Who is favored in Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons?
Loyola Chicago is favored by 10.5 points (Loyola Chicago -10.5).
What is the over/under for Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons?
The total is 160 points.
When is Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons?
Yes: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers opened -9 and is now -10.5, and the total moved from 156 to 161.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Air Force Falcons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers: 52% of bets, 68% of the money; Air Force Falcons: 48% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers -11.5: 54% of bets, 53% of the money; Air Force Falcons +11.5: 46% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 33% of bets, 36% of the money; Under 161.5: 67% of bets, 64% of the money.