Long Island University vs La Salle prediction: LIU's champions crash La Salle homecoming against a shooting slump

A champion walks into homecoming

Last March, LIU was dancing and La Salle was finishing 9-23. On Saturday, Nov. 7, the Sharks bring that gap to John Glaser Arena for La Salle's homecoming, and the question is how much of it survived the offseason.

LIU went 24-11 last season, won the NEC regular-season and tournament titles at 15-3 in league play, and earned the program's first NCAA Tournament berth since 2018 before losing to Arizona in the first round. Rod Strickland enters his fourth season. The Sharks also won last season's meeting, 70-60 at home on Dec. 13.

The opponent-adjusted numbers are closer than the records. Adjusted net efficiency measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, corrected for schedule strength. LIU finished last season at -3, 207th nationally. La Salle finished at -6.3, 237th. That works out to a modest edge for LIU, not a chasm, and an A-10 schedule explains part of the Explorers' record.

La Salle's jump shot problem

The Explorers' offense was the worst part of last season. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 made shots, was 45.7%, 359th of 365. They made just 29.8% of their threes, 352nd.

The inside route was no easier, and LIU's defense makes it harder. The Sharks blocked 13.8% of opponent two-point tries last season, 16th in the country. They also kept opponents off the arc: only 32.9% of opponent shots came from three, one of the lowest shares in Division I. A team that can't shoot from outside, facing a defense that funnels shots inside to its shot-blockers, is the matchup that decides this game unless La Salle's new pieces change the profile.

Giveaways, glass and the foul line

LIU's weak spot last season was ball security. The Sharks turned it over on 19.0% of possessions, 315th nationally, and that sloppiness is La Salle's clearest route to extra shots.

The second route is the offensive glass. La Salle grabbed 33.8% of its own misses last season, 90th, and LIU's defensive rebounding was a liability at 67.0%, 310th. For a team that misses as often as La Salle did, second chances matter more than usual.

If this stays close late, watch LIU at the line. The Sharks made 66.7% of their free throws last season, 347th, a number that can let a trailing team hang around.

What's new and what isn't known

Darris Nichols is in his second season at La Salle after arriving from Radford. His signing class includes guard Mason Blazer from Florida Southwestern State and Francois Nkoy-Eale, a 6-11 junior college forward who could give the Explorers some size of their own. No report yet names which newcomers will start.

LIU's roster page lists returners including Vasean Allette, Jahki Howard, Josh Pickett and Matt Bewley, and the Sharks beat UMBC 86-77 in an October exhibition. How much of last season's rotation is back hasn't been published, so last season's team numbers are a rough guide for both sides.

No injury or eligibility news has surfaced for either team, which means nothing published yet rather than a clean bill of health. La Salle opens at Houston on Nov. 2, so the Explorers will have one game behind them. Tip time is unsettled: LIU's schedule lists 3:30 PM, while La Salle's still shows TBA.