Long Beach State vs Montana State prediction: Jed Miller and Montana State's sharpshooters open the Bozeman season

The Bobcats' shooters are back

Montana State opens its home schedule at Worthington Arena on Saturday, Nov. 7 carrying a label it has never worn under Matt Logie: preseason Big Sky favorite. The Bobcats topped both the coaches' and media polls, and the reason is continuity. They return 66.9% of last season's minutes.

The headliner is Jed Miller, the preseason all-conference guard who made 40.6% of his threes last season. His offensive rating of 132.4 (points produced per 100 possessions) was elite efficiency for a player logging 34.5 minutes a night. Jeremiah Davis also shot 40% from deep, with a 60.2% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times).

That core powered a team that hit 37.1% from three, 28th in Division I. It also leaned on the shot, ranking 60th in three-point attempt rate. The losses are real. Davian Brown, a 43% shooter from deep, is gone, and Patrick McMahon, a second-team All-Big Sky pick who averaged 13.7 points, isn't among the listed returners.

Where Long Beach State gave ground

The Beach defense was the problem last season. Opponents posted a 53.0% effective field goal percentage, 292nd nationally. Oddly, the damage didn't come only from deep: Long Beach State faced one of the highest opponent three-point attempt rates in the country (327th of 365), and teams still did plenty inside. Teams beat it inside, shooting 53.7% on twos, and at the line.

That foul trouble is the wrinkle. Long Beach State ranked 326th in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), a weakness Montana State may not be built to exploit. The Bobcats ranked 305th in getting to the line themselves. Expect them to keep firing from outside rather than hunting whistles.

Few gifts, few second chances

Long Beach State's best defensive trait was forcing mistakes, with an 18.3% forced turnover rate that ranked 107th. Montana State protected the ball well, turning it over on 14.9% of possessions, 51st nationally. If the Beach can't speed up the Bobcats' guards, they lose their main way to steal possessions.

The glass looks quiet at both ends. Both teams ranked well on the defensive boards last season and poorly on the offensive glass, so this should be a game of one shot per trip, which favors the better shooting team.

A rebuilt Beach roster on the road

Chris Acker enters his third season at Long Beach State after a ninth-place Big West finish. His 15-man roster adds transfers from Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh and elsewhere, plus freshmen Ethan Chung and Max VanLaningham. With so many new faces, last season's team numbers are a rough guide for the Beach.

Style may still carry over. Long Beach State played fast, at 70.6 possessions per 40 minutes (53rd), while Montana State ranked 223rd in pace. The Beach get a road test first, opening at Utah on Nov. 2 after an Oct. 28 exhibition at San Diego State.

The recent series is split. Long Beach State won 75-69 in Bozeman in November 2023, and Montana State returned the favor 78-72 in Long Beach last November.