Lamar vs Abilene Christian prediction: Jordan Fee's rebuilt Lamar walks into Abilene Christian's turnover trap

Lamar starts from zero

Almost nothing about last season's Lamar team tells you who will take the floor in Abilene. Jordan Fee was hired March 14 as the 13th head coach in program history, arriving from Florida Atlantic, where he was associate head coach. He rebuilt the roster fast: seven transfers, including Mike Collins, Dominic Eason, Lamont Hartfield, Caden Hinker, Jeremiah Jones, Matt Reed and M.J. Wardlow. That class mixes two junior college players, two Division I transfers and three Division II standouts.

How much of the old roster stayed is unsettled. Fee has said the Cardinals did not return any players, but Houston native Quinton Sanders is also reported to be staying, so the picture is unsettled. Either way, Lamar's 12-19 record and its 2025-26 team stats describe a different group.

Abilene Christian's hands

The clearest identity in this game belongs to Abilene Christian, entering Brette Tanner's sixth season and its first in the rebranded United Athletic Conference. Last season the Wildcats forced turnovers on 23.6% of opponent possessions, 3rd of 365 Division I teams, and their steal rate ranked 5th.

That pressure is the worst possible welcome for a team whose guards have barely played together. A roster of transfers from junior college and Division II has not seen many defenses that swarm like this one. If Lamar's new backcourt can't handle the ball in the half court, this game gets away early.

The pressure cuts both ways. ACU coughed it up on 20.5% of its own possessions last season, 352nd nationally, so live-ball turnovers should flow in both directions.

The price of gambling

All that reaching comes with a bill. ACU's opponents posted a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 52.0% last season, dead last at 365th. Opponents also made 39.4% of their threes, 364th. The Wildcats either take the ball or give up something easy.

For Lamar, the path is simple to describe: survive the first wave of pressure, attack the rim and live at the line. Last season's Cardinals were among the least likely teams in the country to draw fouls, but that was a different roster and a different coach.

A pace collision

Fee has said he wants to play faster than any team in the country. That would be a sharp turn: last season's Lamar averaged 66.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 250th in pace. ACU played at 69 possessions, 111th, and its pressing style already invites a scramble.

Two teams that want chaos, plus the turnovers and fouls ACU's defense produces, point toward a choppy, high-possession game rather than a grinding one. The only meeting on record between these programs was a 74-62 ACU win at Lamar on Jan. 4, 2020, long before either current staff.

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