Lafayette vs Saint Joseph's prediction: Saint Joseph's defense, nearly intact, hosts Lafayette in an opener rematch

A defense that came back

Saint Joseph's won 24 games last season behind a strong defense, and most of last season's minutes return. Players on this season's roster account for 77.1% of last season's minutes, so the Hawks' 2025-26 numbers are a sturdier guide than usual for this time of year.

Those numbers were strong. Saint Joseph's finished 72nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Opponents posted a 47.2% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 29th in the country.

Lafayette sits on the other end of that scale. The Leopards' adjusted offense ranked 311th of 365 last season during an 11-21 finish. We don't know how much of that roster returns, so treat their numbers with caution. Even so, there is a wide gap to close against a defense this experienced.

Nothing easy at the rim

The clearest pressure point is inside. Saint Joseph's blocked 12.5% of opponents' two-point attempts, 38th nationally. Lafayette made 49.9% of its twos, 285th.

Center Justice Ajogbor returns after averaging 2.1 blocks last season. The Hawks added 6-foot-10 graduate forward Sean Logan from Davidson, who made the A-10 preseason all-defensive team. Logan's offense is modest; he averaged 3.7 points at Davidson last season. His value is length next to Ajogbor.

Lafayette also can't count on second chances. The Leopards grabbed 26.1% of their own misses, 333rd nationally, so a miss usually ends the possession.

The Hawks' shooting problem

Saint Joseph's does have a flaw, and Lafayette's defense could let it slide. The Hawks took threes on 44.7% of their shots last season, 74th-most in the country, yet made only 30.8% of them, 332nd.

Lafayette allowed opponents to hit 35.6% from deep, 305th. A volume team that shoots this poorly against a defense that gives up looks makes the Hawks' three-point percentage the swing factor in the margin.

Jaiden Glover-Toscano, a preseason first-team All-A-10 pick, carries the outside volume. He made 90 of 260 threes last season. Point guard Derek Simpson started all 36 games and posted a 116.3 offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions used), the steadiest creator on the roster.

Slow game, few freebies

Tempo points toward a lower-possession afternoon. Lafayette played at 64.6 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 319th, while Saint Joseph's sat near the middle at 68.

Free throws won't bail out the Leopards either. The Hawks' defense ranked 20th in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), and Lafayette made just 69.0% of its foul shots. On the other end, Simpson made 92.5% of his free throws, which matters if the Hawks need to close.

Rematch and the stakes

This is a rematch of last season's opener, which Saint Joseph's won 85-76 at home. The Hawks also beat Lafayette 81-60 in 2023, so the Leopards have lost both recent meetings at Saint Joseph's.

Saint Joseph's built momentum late last season, winning 13 of its final 16 regular-season games before reaching the A-10 tournament semifinals, where VCU eliminated it. Steve Donahue begins his second season with a team picked sixth in the league. The Hawks did lose Dasear Haskins, who averaged 11.1 points, to Ole Miss.

Lafayette's 2025-26 ended with a 77-82 loss to Holy Cross in the Patriot League tournament's first round. Mike McGarvey coached that team; his status for this season hasn't been confirmed.