Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies prediction: Incarnate Word's turnover habit walks into UC Davis's ball-hawking defense
A Cardinals roster rebuilt almost from scratch is still giving the ball away, and the Aggies are one of the better teams in the country at taking it.
UC Davis Aggies covered the closing spread (Incarnate Word Cardinals +11.5). The game went over the closing total of 143.5.
| Spread | UC Davis -11.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 145.5 |
- UC Davis should win the possession battle with steals and free throws, while a rebuilt Incarnate Word struggles to get clean shots early.
- Incarnate Word's guards against Brayden Fagbemi and the UC Davis pressure: the Cardinals' 25.7% turnover rate ranks 352nd.
- UC Davis is favored by 11.5 with a 145.5 total, unchanged all day. Incarnate Word has gone under in all three of its games.
A roster that starts over
Incarnate Word is 0-3, and the losses have not been close. The Cardinals tip at 2:11 p.m. ET on Veterans Day as a program still learning its own names. Players on this season's roster logged just 0.5% of last season's minutes, so last season's 12-19 team says almost nothing about this one. Two of last season's biggest contributors, Davion Bailey and Tahj Staveskie (now at Akron), are gone, and transfers have taken their minutes.}
The new group has not found its footing. Its turnover rate, giveaways per 100 possessions, is 25.7%, 352nd of 364 Division I teams. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, sits 347th. The low point came at home against Chicago State, rated 337th in adjusted net efficiency, in a 66-54 loss as a favorite.
The Aggies take it away
That ball security problem runs straight into UC Davis's best trait. The Aggies force turnovers at a 23.6% rate, 59th nationally, and this is not a two-game fluke: they ranked 22nd in forced turnovers last season too. Brayden Fagbemi sets the tone at the point, averaging 3.0 steals.
UC Davis is not clean with the ball itself, and its shooting has been ugly. Connor Sevilla, a 40.2% three-point shooter last season, has opened 2 of 12 from deep. Jim Les has leaned instead on Veniamin "Ben" Abosi, a transfer from San Francisco who comes off the bench and posted 18 points and 10 rebounds against non-Division I Menlo for his first collegiate double-double.
A trip to the line
The Aggies score at the free throw line. Their free throw rate, attempts per field goal attempt, is 53.5%, 23rd nationally. They also send opponents there often, ranking 324th in opponent free throw rate. That should help an Incarnate Word team that draws contact, except the Cardinals make only 64.2% of their free throws.
The Cardinals' best interior weapon is Godswill Erheriene, a center shooting 58.6% from the floor who had 18 points and 10 rebounds against Chicago State. UC Davis blocks just 3.5% of opponents' two-point tries, 352nd, so he should find room. The catch is the line: Erheriene has made 33.3% of his free throws.
Where the number sits
UC Davis is favored by 11.5 with a total of 145.5, and neither has moved since the line first appeared this morning. The Aggies have not earned blind trust as a big home favorite. They failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites in a 79-75 loss to North Alabama.
Incarnate Word is 0-3 against the spread and has gone under in every game. Its first-half scoring is the starkest sign of trouble, ranked 355th in the country. If the Cardinals keep handing the ball over early, UC Davis's steals turn into the easy baskets its half-court offense has not produced.
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies line movement and odds
| Book | Cardinals ML | Aggies ML | Cardinals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +525 | -835 | +11.5 (-107) | o143.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +400 | -620 | +11.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-120) |
| ESPN BET | +550 | -900 | +11.5 (-105) | o143.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +530 | -780 | +11.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +525 | -850 | +11.5 (-105) | o143.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +500 | -700 | +11.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies
On the Kalshi moneyline: Incarnate Word Cardinals: 30% of bets, 4% of the money; UC Davis Aggies: 70% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UC Davis Aggies -11.5: 79% of bets, 86% of the money; Incarnate Word Cardinals +11.5: 22% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 39% of bets, 25% of the money; Under 144.5: 61% of bets, 75% of the money.
Key players
- Godswill Erheriene (Incarnate Word): Averaging 12.3 points and 2.0 blocks, the Cardinals' most efficient scorer at 58.6% from the floor.
- Mekhi Conner (Incarnate Word): Carries a team-high 26.4% usage but went 0 for 12 from the floor against Chicago State.
- Ismail Habib (Incarnate Word): Scored 14.7 points per game at Southern Indiana last season but is 18.8% from three so far.
- Veniamin Abosi (UC Davis): Leads UC Davis at 14.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game with a 29.5% usage rate.
- Brayden Fagbemi (UC Davis): Averaging 6.0 assists and 3.0 steals, the engine of the Aggies' pressure.
- Connor Sevilla (UC Davis): Shot 40.2% from three last season but is 16.7% through two games.
- Jalen Stokes (UC Davis): Leads the starters at 13.0 points per game with a 25.8% usage rate.
Numbers that matter
| UIW turnover rate | 25.7% | Ranks 352nd of 364, the core problem against an opportunistic defense. |
|---|---|---|
| UC Davis forced turnover rate | 23.6% | Ranks 59th, following a 22nd-place finish in the same stat last season. |
| UIW returning minutes | 0.5% | Almost nothing carries over, so last season's numbers are a weak guide. |
| UC Davis free throw rate | 53.5% | Ranks 23rd, giving the Aggies a way to score when jumpers miss. |
| Spread | -11.5 | UC Davis is favored by 11.5, unchanged since the line first appeared. |
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies: quick answers
What was the final score of Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies?
Incarnate Word Cardinals 69, UC Davis Aggies 81 (final). UC Davis Aggies covered the closing spread (Incarnate Word Cardinals +11.5). The game went over the closing total of 143.5.
Who is favored in Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies?
UC Davis is favored by 11.5 points (UC Davis -11.5).
What is the over/under for Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies?
The total is 145.5 points.
When is Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 2:11 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies?
Yes: Incarnate Word Cardinals opened +10 and is now +11.5, and the total moved from 146 to 143.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Incarnate Word Cardinals: 30% of bets, 4% of the money; UC Davis Aggies: 70% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UC Davis Aggies -11.5: 79% of bets, 86% of the money; Incarnate Word Cardinals +11.5: 22% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 39% of bets, 25% of the money; Under 144.5: 61% of bets, 75% of the money.