Howard Bison vs Davidson Wildcats prediction: Davidson's stingy, slow-starting defense waits for Howard to cough it up

The first half belongs to Davidson

Three games into a rebuilt season, Davidson has looked like a defense first, and everything else second. The Wildcats rank 42nd of 364 in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and opponents have managed just a 42.4% effective field goal percentage, a measure that counts threes 1.5 times. They also don't foul: Davidson's opponent free throw rate ranks 4th in Division I.

The damage shows up early. Davidson has allowed 25.0 first-half points per game, 14th nationally. Washington State trailed by 12 at halftime of the opener and never got closer than double digits for long, and Bradley managed 20 points before the break.

That is a bad setup for Howard, which turns the ball over on 20.0% of its possessions, 280th in the country. Davidson doesn't force many turnovers itself, but a defense this disciplined doesn't need to. Every empty Howard trip is a possession the Bison can't get back against a team this slow.

Howard's champions, partly rebuilt

Howard is the reigning MEAC champion and brings back 64.9% of last season's minutes, more continuity than Davidson. What it lost was its best all-around piece: Bryce Harris averaged 17.3 points last season and is gone. The defense that ranked 23rd in efficiency last season has slipped to 142nd in the adjusted ratings this year.

The early results are telling. Howard lost at Yale 72-62 and at Penn 78-65, and the two opponents rank 240th and 221st in adjusted net efficiency. Its wins came against Alcorn State and Stetson.

The offense runs through Cedric Taylor III, who carries a 30.9% usage rate and scored 27 against Alcorn State and 22 against Stetson. Cam Gillus has been the efficient one, hitting 9 of 15 threes, and Drew Harris has given the Bison a lift off the bench.

Janowski and the new Davidson

Davidson returns only 45.0% of last season's minutes after losing four guards to transfer, including Parker Friedrichsen to Washington and Roberts Blums to Penn State. Last season's numbers say little about this group.

The headliner is Nick Janowski, a transfer from St. Thomas-Minnesota who leads the team at 19.3 points per game with a 127.4 offensive rating. Josh Scovens, a returning starter, adds 15.0 points. Ian Platteeuw, a guard, is pulling down 11.7 rebounds a game. That matters against a Howard team that ranks 309th in defensive rebounding percentage, the share of opponents' misses it collects.

Threes, blocks and bricks

Davidson is shooting 38.4% from three, 59th nationally, and Howard has let opponents hit 35.8%, which ranks 288th. That is the cleanest edge in the game for the home side. Sam Brown is the swing shooter: he went 0 for 7 from deep against Bradley after a strong night against Mercer.

Inside, Howard has a counter. Its block rate ranks 35th, and both Taylor and James Brown average 1.8 blocks.

Neither team wants this decided at the line. Howard shoots 59.5% on free throws and Davidson 57.1%, both near the bottom of Division I. Davidson also rarely draws fouls, so a late Howard rally would have to come from the field.

What the market sees

Davidson is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 141.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the line this morning. Davidson has covered all three games, including an outright win at Washington State as an underdog. Howard is 2-2 against the spread, and three of its four games have stayed under the total.

The pace supports a low score. Davidson plays at 66.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 304th in tempo, and Howard sits at 68.8. With both teams also slow to score early, the first half could be quiet.