Hampton vs George Washington prediction: George Washington must replace Rafael Castro against a Hampton team that couldn't shoot

Life after Rafael Castro

George Washington's offense ran through the middle last season, and the middle is gone. Rafael Castro averaged 15.3 points and 9.1 rebounds while shooting 62.7% from the floor. He isn't on this roster. Neither is forward Luke Hunger, who left for Boston College.

Everything else largely stayed. GW returns 78.6% of last season's minutes, so this is a continuity roster with one large hole. Last season's group finished 68th in adjusted offensive efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents. The holdovers are mostly guards: Trey Autry, Christian Jones and Jean Aranguren all started regularly. Tyrone Marshall Jr. is the forward most likely to absorb Castro's minutes. A spring note also said Jalen Rougier-Roane, who missed his freshman season with an undisclosed injury, would return. His status this fall hasn't been reported.

Hampton's jumper problem

Hampton went 13-19 last season with an offense that rarely found a clean look. The Pirates made 29.4% of their threes, 357th of 365, and their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) ranked 348th.

Last season's numbers are only a rough guide here. In May, Ivan Thomas's program announced it was bringing back four players and adding four freshmen, so the shooters from that team may not be the shooters in this game.

The defense was Hampton's real identity. Opponents hit 31.6% from three and attempted relatively few, which runs straight into GW's style. The Revolutionaries took threes on 46.9% of their shots, 35th nationally, and Autry made 38.5% of his. Without Castro's interior presence, GW may lean even harder on the arc.

Where the extra possessions come from

GW's weak spot last season was ball security. Its turnover rate of 18.9 per 100 possessions ranked 309th, a real problem for a team built on clean perimeter looks. The Revolutionaries made up for it on the glass, ranking 38th in offensive rebound rate at 35.9%.

That rebounding edge came partly from Castro, so it is worth watching early. Hampton's minutes-weighted height was slightly greater than GW's last season.

The Pirates' clearest flaw was fouling. Their opponent free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranked 350th. If GW's guards attack closeouts instead of settling, Hampton's foul trouble could decide the game early.

Home floor and an empty board

The last meeting was not close: GW won 82-54 at the Smith Center in November 2024. This season's group has already played in that building, losing 76-68 to Georgetown in its final exhibition on Oct. 16 in front of a student section that Chris Caputo, now in his fourth season, publicly thanked. Georgetown's coach said afterward that GW "is going to have a really, really good year."

No spread or total has been posted yet. Last season's adjusted net ratings point to a wide gap: GW finished at 11.1 (79th), Hampton at -9.9 (272nd). How the line settles will show how much the market thinks losing Castro hurts GW.