Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders prediction: Tom House's hot hand tests a Holy Cross defense missing its center
Furman's three-point barrage arrives in Worcester as Holy Cross opens its home schedule thin up front and unable to force mistakes.
Holy Cross Crusaders covered the closing spread (Furman Paladins -13.5). The game went under the closing total of 150.5.
| Spread | Furman -12.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 151 |
- Furman should build a lead early from the perimeter; Holy Cross has allowed 51.0 first-half points per game, 361st in Division I.
- Tom House, 12 of 20 from three this season, against a Holy Cross defense ranked 331st in opponent 3-point percentage.
- Furman -12.5 and a 150.5 total haven't moved; Holy Cross has allowed 99.0 points per game, and both its games went over.
House sets the terms
Holy Cross opens its home schedule tonight against the team picked to win the Southern Conference. Furman arrives 3-0 with a guard who has barely missed, and the Crusaders have spent two road games watching opponents score at will. The question in Worcester is less who wins than how far the Paladins' shooting carries them.
Tom House is averaging 23.0 points and has made 12 of his 20 threes. He scored 30 against Northern Iowa on Nov. 7, Furman's best win so far. Last season he made 31.5% of his threes, so some cooling is likely. The volume is the part that travels: Furman takes 54.5% of its shots from deep, 15th most in the country.
That volume lands on a soft spot. Holy Cross opponents have made 38.6% of their threes, 331st of 364. Charles Johnston, a preseason All-SoCon pick in early October, gives Furman a second floor-spacer at forward and has hit 8 of 16 from three.
A frontcourt running short
Holy Cross lost its starting center before the season began. Declan Ryan twisted his left knee in the Oct. 27 exhibition against Central Connecticut State, and Dave Paulsen said in early November he was expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Ryan sat out the opener at Rhode Island and was expected to miss Villanova as well.
The depth behind him is thin. Senior guard Nugent is still recovering from an Achilles injury, with a return framed around Patriot League play. Transfers Bradyn Foster and Elijah Flowers both battled injuries through the preseason.
The absence shows inside. Holy Cross has made 39.1% of its twos, 349th nationally, and has grabbed 22.4% of its own misses (offensive rebound rate), 341st. Chuck Hare is carrying the glass at 8.5 rebounds per game, and Tristen Wilson has been the most efficient scorer at 13.0 points per game on 58.3% shooting.
No free possessions
Underdogs keep games close by stealing extra possessions. Holy Cross has shown little ability to do that. The Crusaders force turnovers on 7.0% of opponent possessions, last of 364 teams.
Furman protects the ball as well as almost anyone, turning it over on 10.7% of its possessions, 11th in the nation. Luka Toews, a transfer from Boston College, runs the offense without forcing it. That pairing means Furman should get a shot off on nearly every trip, and with this shooting profile, that is the whole game plan.
What the number says
Furman is a 12.5-point favorite, and the line hasn't budged from the first number our feed recorded this morning. The total sits at 150.5, also unchanged.
Furman has covered both of its lined games. Holy Cross is 1-1 against the spread, and the split says something: the Crusaders lost by 29 at Villanova but covered a 34.5-point number, then failed to cover as heavy underdogs at Rhode Island. Both of their games went over.
Last season's ratings set a wide gap, with Holy Cross 329th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Treat that cautiously for Furman, which returns only 29.5% of last season's minutes. Holy Cross brought in four freshmen and four transfers, so neither roster resembles last year's.
- Whether House's three-point volume holds up after his Northern Iowa outburst.
- Who Holy Cross plays at center with Ryan out.
- First-half margin: Furman has scored 47.7 first-half points per game.
Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders line movement and odds
| Book | Paladins ML | Crusaders ML | Paladins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -1000 | +625 | -13.5 (-102) | o150.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -1115 | +650 | -13.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | -950 | +625 | -13.5 (-102) | o150.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | -1000 | +600 | -13.5 (+100) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -1000 | +650 | -13 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -1050 | +660 | -13.5 (-102) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1100 | +650 | -13.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -1000 | +650 | -13 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
Where the money is on Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders
On the Kalshi moneyline: Furman Paladins: 79% of bets, 99% of the money; Holy Cross Crusaders: 21% of bets, 2% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Furman Paladins -12.5: 87% of bets, 86% of the money; Holy Cross Crusaders +12.5: 13% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 25% of bets, 18% of the money; Under 151.5: 75% of bets, 82% of the money.
Key players
- Tom House (Furman): He is averaging 23.0 points on 60% three-point shooting, including 30 against Northern Iowa.
- Charles Johnston (Furman): He is averaging 13.0 points and 8.3 rebounds and has made 8 of 16 threes after shooting 28.7% last season.
- Marcus Kell (Furman): He averaged 13.7 points at Western Carolina last season and is at 10.0 per game so far.
- Luka Toews (Furman): He leads Furman with 4.7 assists per game while using just 15.6% of possessions.
- Tristen Wilson (Holy Cross): He is averaging 13.0 points on 58.3% shooting, including 17 at Villanova.
- Chuck Hare (Holy Cross): He has scored 10 points in each game and averages 8.5 rebounds with Ryan sidelined.
- Kole Hanson (Holy Cross): He has made 4 of 11 threes but is shooting 28.6% overall.
- Jude Haigh (Holy Cross): He has hit 4 of 9 threes and made two in each game.
Numbers that matter
| Holy Cross opponent 3-point % | 38.6% | Ranked 331st of 364, against a Furman team that takes more than half its shots from three. |
|---|---|---|
| Furman 3-point attempt rate | 54.5% | Fifteenth most in Division I, so the Paladins will test that perimeter defense all night. |
| Holy Cross forced turnover rate | 7.0% | Last of 364 teams, facing a Furman offense that ranks 11th in ball security. |
| Spread | -12.5 | Furman's number has not moved since our feed first saw the game. |
| Holy Cross points allowed per game | 99.0 | Both Crusader games have gone over, with the total here at 150.5. |
Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders: quick answers
What was the final score of Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders?
Furman Paladins 80, Holy Cross Crusaders 67 (final). Holy Cross Crusaders covered the closing spread (Furman Paladins -13.5). The game went under the closing total of 150.5.
Who is favored in Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders?
Furman is favored by 12.5 points (Furman -12.5).
What is the over/under for Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders?
The total is 151 points.
When is Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders?
Yes: Furman Paladins opened -12.5 and is now -13.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Furman Paladins vs Holy Cross Crusaders?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Furman Paladins: 79% of bets, 99% of the money; Holy Cross Crusaders: 21% of bets, 2% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Furman Paladins -12.5: 87% of bets, 86% of the money; Holy Cross Crusaders +12.5: 13% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 25% of bets, 18% of the money; Under 151.5: 75% of bets, 82% of the money.