Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs East Texas A&M Lions prediction: East Texas A&M's all-new Lions bring their upset run home against FDU

A new roster comes home

Nobody in East Texas A&M's nine-man rotation played for the Lions last season. That group has already won at Oklahoma and at Rice. Wednesday morning it plays in front of its own crowd for the first time, in what is slated to be the final season at The Field House, on a 10:30 a.m. local Education Day tip.

The Oklahoma result was the jolt. The Lions closed as 30.5-point underdogs in Norman and won 68-64. Two days after that, they beat Rice by a point. That came from a team returning just 6.8% of last season's minutes and picked near the bottom of the Southland preseason poll.

Fairleigh Dickinson arrives 1-2 after a brutal opening road trip. The Knights lost 120-45 at Illinois and 99-65 at Butler before routing City College at home. Those two opponents explain much of the damage. Even so, FDU's defense has allowed a 63.6% effective field goal percentage, a measure where threes count 1.5 times. That ranks 358th of 364.

Second chances in Commerce

The Lions do not shoot well inside the arc. They are making 40.6% of their twos, 344th nationally. They survive by going back to get the misses. East Texas A&M's offensive rebound rate, the share of its own missed shots it recovers, is 48.1%, seventh in the country.

That is the matchup that decides this game. FDU has secured just 60.2% of opponents' misses, 341st. A team that cannot finish at the rim but keeps getting extra shots is a poor draw for a defense that cannot end possessions.

The Lions leave a door open of their own. Their defensive rebounding ranks 348th. FDU, though, has the 360th-ranked offensive rebound rate and rarely crashes, so it is unlikely to punish that weakness.

Where FDU can steal possessions

East Texas A&M gives the ball away on 22.7% of its possessions, 335th in Division I. FDU's defense forces turnovers at only an average rate, but its own offense has been careful with the ball. The Knights' turnover rate ranks 47th. If FDU wins the turnover count clearly, it erases some of the rebounding gap.

Free throws are the other leak for the Lions. They are shooting 56.8% at the line, 349th, and they foul often, ranking 293rd in opponent free throw rate. FDU has not lived at the line, which limits how much it gains from those fouls. In a game priced near double digits, though, missed Lions free throws late are a backdoor risk.

Who carries the load

East Texas A&M runs through two scorers. Bo Aldridge and Mohamed Diakite are each averaging 19.0 points. Aldridge carries a 36.9% usage rate. App State transfer Alonzo Dodd has stretched the floor, going 8 of 19 from three.

FDU's guards have been more efficient than the team's numbers suggest. JR Jacobs owns a 65.9% effective field goal percentage. David Jevtic, one of the few meaningful returners on a roster bringing back 25.2% of last season's minutes, is 6 of 12 from deep. The problem is everyone else. The Knights are shooting 24.4% from three as a team, 342nd. Bench guard Vophcy Prophete is 2 of 14. Pepperdine transfer Pavle Stosic runs much of the offense from the forward spot.

The Lions won the only recent meeting, 70-65, last November at FDU. Almost none of the players from that game remain on either roster.

Where the number sits

East Texas A&M is a 10.5-point favorite, and the total is 138. Neither number has moved since the feed first picked up the game Wednesday morning. The Lions are 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 to the under. FDU is 0-2 against the spread, and both of its lined games went over.

The FDU overs came against Illinois and Butler, where both totals sat well above this one. The tempo here leans slow. East Texas A&M's pace ranks 303rd, while FDU sits near the national middle. The Lions controlling the glass and the clock points toward a grind. Their turnovers and free throw misses are what could keep FDU inside the number.