Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes prediction: Ollie Engen must protect the ball against Dartmouth's turnover-hunting defense
Two rebuilt rosters split by a short spread, and UAlbany's giveaways against Dartmouth's active hands look like the swing factor in Wednesday's matinee.
Dartmouth Big Green covered the closing spread (Dartmouth Big Green -1.5). The game went over the closing total of 139.5.
| Spread | Pick'em |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 139.5 |
- Expect a deliberate game that turns on possessions: UAlbany gives the ball away at a 314th-ranked rate against a Dartmouth defense that forces plenty.
- Ollie Engen against Dartmouth's pressure. He plays 37.3 minutes a night and committed six turnovers in Sunday's loss to Merrimack.
- Dartmouth is a 1.5-point road favorite, the total is steady at 139.5, and both UAlbany games with a line went under.
Turnovers decide the matinee
Both teams arrive at 2-1, both lost their last time out, and both are working with mostly new rosters. Dartmouth is in its first season under Brett MacConnell. UAlbany carries 11 newcomers for a coach, Dwayne Killings, working on a one-year extension. Wednesday's Veterans Day matinee at Broadview Center likely comes down to a simple question: can the Great Danes hold onto the ball?
So far they haven't. UAlbany turns it over on 21.6% of its possessions (turnover rate, giveaways per 100 possessions), which ranks 314th of 364 Division I teams. Dartmouth's defense forces turnovers on 23.8% of opponent possessions, 58th nationally, and its steal rate ranks 65th. That's a new identity for a Big Green program that rarely forced mistakes last season.
The pressure lands on Ollie Engen. The junior point guard, a transfer from Queen's University in Ontario and a second-team All-Canadian last season, runs nearly everything. He scored 17 against Merrimack on Sunday but gave it away six times. If Dartmouth turns his workload into live-ball steals, the Great Danes' offense has little margin to absorb it.
Threes against a soft perimeter
Dartmouth shoots threes on nearly half its attempts. Its 49.2% three-point attempt rate ranks 49th, a style call rather than a strength, because the Big Green are making only 30.9% from deep. This could be the night that changes. UAlbany has allowed opponents to hit 37.5% from three, which ranks 319th.
The Great Danes can't match that volume. They shoot 25.8% from three, 328th nationally, so their scoring has to come inside and off the glass. Their best defensive weapon is rim protection: a 15.8% block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) ranks 59th. That gives them a way to make Dartmouth's drivers pay, as long as the Big Green don't simply shoot over the top.
Two rosters starting over
Last season's numbers say little here. Dartmouth returns 32.7% of last season's minutes, and UAlbany returns just 19.8%. Only three players who saw action for the Great Danes are back, along with guard Wilkin Paulino after a redshirt year.
The newcomers are carrying UAlbany. Freshman Tyler Jones is averaging 17.3 points and scored a game-high 23 in the win at Manhattan. U-Mier Graham has been efficient around the basket. For Dartmouth, Cameron McNamee has grown from a reserve role into the lead scorer, and 6-8 sophomore Anton Strelnikov scores 11.7 a game off the bench with the team's heaviest usage.
UAlbany's depth is still thin. Forward Ben Michaels is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered over the summer. As of Sunday, senior Abdoulaye Fall remained on a minutes restriction, and Pedro Santos, recovering from a fractured foot, was due to be re-evaluated this week in hopes of making his UAlbany debut. The team hasn't said whether he plays. No injury news has surfaced for Dartmouth.
A short number, a flat line
Dartmouth is favored by 1.5 on the road, and neither the spread nor the 139.5 total has moved since our feed first recorded the game. The Big Green's last result tempers that favoritism: they lost in overtime to Central Connecticut as an 8.5-point favorite.
On the total, both of UAlbany's lined games stayed under, and neither team plays fast. Dartmouth's pace ranks 293rd. In a game this close, free throws could matter, and neither side has been reliable: Dartmouth shoots 63.6% at the line, UAlbany 65.5%.
Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes line movement and odds
| Book | Green ML | Danes ML | Green spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (-105) | o139.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | -112 | -112 | -0.5 (-112) | o139.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 | -1.5 (+105) | o139.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+100) | o139.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 | -1 (-105) | o139.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | -108 | -111 | +1.5 (-120) | o139.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-125) | o139.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 | -1 (-110) | o139.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Dartmouth Big Green: 53% of bets, 60% of the money; Albany Great Danes: 47% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Albany Great Danes -1.5: 55% of bets, 34% of the money; Dartmouth Big Green +1.5: 45% of bets, 66% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 46% of bets, 26% of the money; Under 141.5: 54% of bets, 74% of the money.
Key players
- Cameron McNamee (Dartmouth): He is averaging 16.0 points and has made 8 of 20 threes, including 4 of 10 against Central Connecticut.
- Anton Strelnikov (Dartmouth): The 6-8 sophomore scores 11.7 points in 17.7 minutes and carries a team-high 31.4% usage rate.
- Cam Hiatt (Dartmouth): He has hit 5 of 8 threes and owns a 138.4 offensive rating, the best among Dartmouth's regulars.
- Ollie Engen (UAlbany): He averages 18.0 points and 5.7 assists in 37.3 minutes, but committed six turnovers against Merrimack.
- Tyler Jones (UAlbany): Jones is averaging 17.3 points and scored a game-high 23 in the win at Manhattan.
- U-Mier Graham (UAlbany): He is shooting 63.2% from the field and had 16 points and 8 rebounds against Merrimack.
Numbers that matter
| UAlbany turnover rate | 21.6% | It ranks 314th nationally, and it's the weakness Dartmouth's defense is built to exploit. |
|---|---|---|
| Dartmouth forced turnover rate | 23.8% | It ranks 58th, which makes ball pressure the Big Green's best defensive tool this season. |
| UAlbany opponent 3-point % | 37.5% | It ranks 319th, an opening for a Dartmouth team that shoots threes on nearly half its attempts. |
| Spread | -1.5 | Dartmouth is a slim road favorite, and the line hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. |
| UAlbany returning minutes | 19.8% | With this little of last season's roster back, last season's ratings are a weak guide to the Great Danes. |
Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes: quick answers
What was the final score of Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes?
Dartmouth Big Green 85, Albany Great Danes 76 (final). Dartmouth Big Green covered the closing spread (Dartmouth Big Green -1.5). The game went over the closing total of 139.5.
Who is favored in Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes?
Neither team: the game is a pick'em at the sportsbooks.
What is the over/under for Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes?
The total is 139.5 points.
When is Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes?
Yes: Dartmouth Big Green opened -2.5 and is now -1.5, and the total moved from 145.5 to 139.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Dartmouth Big Green vs Albany Great Danes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Dartmouth Big Green: 53% of bets, 60% of the money; Albany Great Danes: 47% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Albany Great Danes -1.5: 55% of bets, 34% of the money; Dartmouth Big Green +1.5: 45% of bets, 66% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 46% of bets, 26% of the money; Under 141.5: 54% of bets, 74% of the money.