Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies prediction: Cornell's three-point barrage tests St. Bonaventure's new wall at the rim
A Bonnies roster rebuilt almost from scratch has a scorer and a shot-blocker, and Cornell's young, three-happy rotation must shoot over both.
Cornell Big Red 64, St. Bonaventure Bonnies 88 (final). St. Bonaventure Bonnies covered the closing spread (Cornell Big Red +7.5). The game went under the closing total of 158.5.
| Spread | St. Bonaventure -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158 |
- St. Bonaventure controls the paint and the glass; Cornell needs a hot night from deep to keep a slower game within reach.
- Zach Philipkoski's shotmaking against a Cornell defense that finished 336th in adjusted efficiency last season.
- Bonnies -9 after our feed first saw -8; their free throw shooting, 52.3% and 359th, could matter late against that number.
A rebuilt Bonnies roster finds a scorer
Mike MacDonald inherited almost nothing. Players on this St. Bonaventure roster logged just 14.0% of last season's minutes, and the new coach arrives with 522 wins over 29 seasons to lean on instead. Two games in, the answer to who scores has been obvious.
Zach Philipkoski, a senior guard out of Daemen, poured in 28 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the opening loss to Youngstown State. He is averaging 22.0 points and has made 8 of his 12 threes. Center Benjamin Bill gives the Bonnies a second weapon inside, shooting 84.6% from the floor while blocking 3.0 shots a game.
The Reilly Center has not been kind yet. The Bonnies' only home game was that opener, lost as a 10.5-point favorite. They then beat Canisius 88-49 on the road after leading 43-14 at the half, though Canisius ranks 345th nationally.
Cornell's threes against the rim wall
Cornell lives behind the arc: threes make up 53.7% of its shots, 22nd in the country. That habit carries over from last season, but the shooters mostly don't. Cooper Noard (now at Samford) and Jake Fiegen (now at Villanova) are gone, and the roster returns 42.8% of last season's minutes.
The new trigger men are Mateen Rafiq, 8 of 19 from three, and senior Jacob Beccles, who opened with 19 points against Pepperdine. Volume from deep looks like the smart route here. St. Bonaventure holds opponents to 37.9% on two-pointers (28th) and blocks 18.2% of opponents' two-point tries, 22nd nationally. The Bonnies take threes rarely, 351st in attempt rate, but hit 40.0% when they do.
Second chances and short shifts
The glass leans toward the hosts. St. Bonaventure grabs 39.7% of its own misses, 65th nationally, while Cornell's defensive rebounding rate sits 217th. Freshman Quinn Gibson, the Ivy League Rookie of the Week, leads the Big Red with 8.3 boards a game and will spend the night tangling with Bill.
Cornell plays in waves. No Big Red player has averaged 30 minutes in a season since 2019-20, and Jon Jaques often subs three or five at a time. The bench scored 60 in the rout of Keuka, a non-Division I opponent, so treat that output lightly. Still, fresh legs could help Cornell push its pace, which ranks 94th against the Bonnies' 261st.
The line and the stripe
The market has moved toward St. Bonaventure, from -8 when our feed first saw the game to -9 now. The total climbed from 154.5 to 156.5, even though both Bonnies games stayed under.
Free throws are the quiet problem for anyone backing the favorite. St. Bonaventure is making 52.3% of its foul shots, 359th of 364, and Cornell sits 293rd at 63.9%. Gibson is 18.2% from the line. A late lead built on free throws will be hard to protect for either side.
Availability is murky for the Bonnies. Joe Grahovac sat out an exhibition with hamstring soreness, and there was no newer update after Oct. 24. Mason Blackwood is out of a soft boot after a foot injury and was expected to return to practice within a couple of weeks, though no game-availability update has surfaced. History favors the hosts too: St. Bonaventure has won the last four meetings, though Cornell leads the series 8-7.
Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies line movement and odds
| Book | Red ML | Bonnies ML | Red spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +275 | -350 | +7.5 (-105) | o158.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +265 | -360 | +7.5 (-108) | o159.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +280 | -355 | +7.5 (-108) | o158.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +270 | -340 | +7.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +275 | -350 | +7.5 (-105) | o158.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +265 | -330 | +7.5 (-102) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +260 | -350 | +7.5 (-105) | o159.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +275 | -350 | +7.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cornell Big Red: 48% of bets, 69% of the money; St. Bonaventure Bonnies: 52% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies -7.5: 55% of bets, 56% of the money; Cornell Big Red +7.5: 45% of bets, 44% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 79% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 156.5: 21% of bets, 4% of the money.
Key players
- Jacob Beccles (Cornell): Averages 13.0 points and is shooting 41.7% from three with a team-high 27% usage rate.
- Mateen Rafiq (Cornell): Has made 8 of 19 threes for a 135.1 offensive rating, the most efficient mark among Cornell's regulars.
- Quinn Gibson (Cornell): The Ivy Rookie of the Week leads Cornell with 8.3 rebounds but is shooting 18.2% at the line.
- Zach Philipkoski (St. Bonaventure): Averages 22.0 points with a 95 effective field goal percentage through two games.
- Benjamin Bill (St. Bonaventure): Shooting 84.6% from the floor and blocking 3.0 shots a game.
- Ari Fulton (St. Bonaventure): Averages 8.0 rebounds, but shot 26.2% from three at NJIT last season.
Numbers that matter
| Cornell 3-point attempt rate | 53.7% | Ranks 22nd nationally, so the Big Red's night rides on its perimeter shooting. |
|---|---|---|
| Bonnies opponent 2-point % | 37.9% | Ranks 28th and pushes Cornell away from the rim. |
| Bonnies free throw % | 52.3% | Ranks 359th, a real risk for a nine-point favorite in a close finish. |
| Bonnies returning minutes | 14.0% | Last season's team numbers say little about this rebuilt roster. |
| Current spread | -9.0 | Moved a point toward St. Bonaventure since our feed first saw it at -8. |
Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies: quick answers
What was the final score of Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
Cornell Big Red 64, St. Bonaventure Bonnies 88 (final). St. Bonaventure Bonnies covered the closing spread (Cornell Big Red +7.5). The game went under the closing total of 158.5.
Who is favored in Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
St. Bonaventure is favored by 7.5 points (St. Bonaventure -7.5).
What is the over/under for Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
The total is 158 points.
When is Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
Yes: Cornell Big Red opened +8.5 and is now +7.5, and the total moved from 154.5 to 158.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Cornell Big Red vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cornell Big Red: 48% of bets, 69% of the money; St. Bonaventure Bonnies: 52% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies -7.5: 55% of bets, 56% of the money; Cornell Big Red +7.5: 45% of bets, 44% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 79% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 156.5: 21% of bets, 4% of the money.