Colorado vs San Diego State prediction: Colorado's rebuilt Buffaloes run into San Diego State's rim wall
With barely a third of last season's minutes back, Tad Boyle's new frontcourt gets an early test against one of the country's best shot-blocking defenses in the inaugural Bill Walton Classic.
- Expect a grind: San Diego State's defense dictates terms, and Colorado's offense leans on Barrington Hargress and transfer Justin Neely to find points.
- Neely against the Aztecs' size inside: SDSU blocked 15.2% of opponents' twos last season, 9th nationally.
- No line is posted yet. SDSU's adjusted defense, 16th nationally at last season's end, is the number most likely to shape it.
A new Colorado, an old problem
Colorado returns just 36.5% of last season's minutes and 33.2% of its points, so the 17-16 team from 2025-26 is a loose guide at best. That matters most on defense, where last season's Buffaloes were the problem. They allowed 113.4 points per 100 possessions, 301st of 365, and opponents made 36.3% of their threes, 335th.
San Diego State brings the opposite profile. The Aztecs finished last season with an adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of 96.1, 16th nationally, on the way to a 22-11 record. Their offense was ordinary by comparison, 110th in adjusted efficiency last season. Colorado's offense rated 58th by the same measure last season, but most of the players who produced it are gone, including Isaiah Johnson (16.9 points per game), now at Texas.
Where the Aztecs send you
San Diego State's defense works by walling off the paint. Opponents shot 45.9% on twos last season, 18th-best in the country, and the block rate ranked 9th. The trade-off is volume from outside: opponents took 47.4% of their shots from three, the 12th-highest share nationally.
That puts the spotlight on Barrington Hargress, Colorado's most important returner. He shot 48.1% from three on 108 attempts last season and posted an offensive rating of 133.1 while starting all 33 games. Ian Inman (36.7% from deep) is the other returning guard who made shots. Colorado took threes on only 35.2% of its attempts last season, 266th, so if SDSU concedes the arc again, the Buffaloes may need to shoot more than they are used to.
Neely and a question-mark frontcourt
Boyle called his frontcourt a "question mark" in late September, and the transfer class is his answer. Justin Neely arrives from UNC Greensboro after averaging 17.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Noah Feddersen comes from North Dakota State, and Iaroslav Niagu from Jacksonville State blocked 1.2 shots a game last season.
Charlotte transfer David Gomez was still recovering from offseason foot surgery and did not practice on the first day of fall camp, and Boyle said he was losing ground. No newer update had surfaced as of late September. Without him, Neely's ability to score against SDSU's shot-blockers is the matchup that decides whether Colorado's offense functions at all.
The turnover battle
San Diego State forced turnovers on 20.3% of opponents' possessions last season, 35th nationally. Colorado protected the ball well, with a turnover rate of 14.8%, 49th, but that came with different personnel. Hargress, who averaged 4.5 assists, is the steadying piece who carries over.
The Aztecs have their own health questions. Brian Dutcher indicated in mid-October that guard Latrell Davis and forward Luka Skoric are returning from injury and that he is careful not to rush them, and SDSU played its exhibition at Arizona without two key players. Neither player's status for Nov. 7 has been confirmed. Elzie Harrington carries a lower-leg tag on one roster listing and Miles Heide a wrist tag, with no newer updates found. SDSU also has four transfers to fold in: Chance Gladden, Isaiah Sy, Nick Anderson and Bear Cherry.
A reunion in Walton's city
The game is the first National University Bill Walton Classic, honoring the Hall of Famer who died in May 2024 and loved both programs. Dutcher called it a family affair, since Chris Walton played for the Aztecs. The floor is neutral in name, but it sits in San Diego State's city.
The series is tied 3-3, and this is the first matchup since the 1975-76 season. Both teams played at a similar tempo last season, around 69 to 70 possessions per 40 minutes. If it comes down to the line late, Colorado made 76.1% of its free throws last season, 47th nationally.
Key players
- Barrington Hargress (Colorado): He shot 48.1% from three last season with a 133.1 offensive rating, the best returning production on the roster.
- Justin Neely (Colorado): He averaged 17.9 points and 11.5 rebounds at UNC Greensboro last season, with a 25.6% usage rate.
- Noah Feddersen (Colorado): He scored 9.3 points per game at North Dakota State last season and blocked 1.0 shot a game.
- Iaroslav Niagu (Colorado): A defensive big, he blocked 1.2 shots per game at Jacksonville State last season.
Numbers that matter
| SDSU adjusted defense | 16th | San Diego State's last-season final rating of 96.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. |
|---|---|---|
| SDSU block rate | 15.2% | Ranked 9th nationally last season and is the main obstacle for Colorado's new frontcourt. |
| Colorado returning minutes | 36.5% | Only about a third of last season's minutes return, so the 2025-26 team stats are a weak guide. |
| Opponent 3-point attempt rate vs. SDSU | 47.4% | The 12th-highest share nationally last season, which makes Hargress's shooting central. |
| SDSU forced turnover rate | 20.3% | Ranked 35th last season, a test for a Colorado backcourt that lost key ball handlers. |
Colorado vs San Diego State: quick answers
When is Colorado vs San Diego State?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.