Colorado Buffaloes vs Providence Friars prediction: Providence's turnover machine faces Colorado's red-hot shooters

Providence wins with its hands

Bryan Hodgson's first Providence team doesn't score much yet. It makes up for that by taking the ball. The Friars force turnovers on 29.7% of opponent possessions, 5th in Division I. Their adjusted defense ranks 27th nationally, at 100.3 points allowed per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents. Their adjusted offense sits 269th.

Miles Byrd, a preseason All-Big East second-team pick, drives the pressure with 3.7 steals per game. Colorado has been loose with the ball. It turns it over on 18.2% of its trips, 204th in the country. Every live-ball steal is a possession this Providence offense badly needs, because its half-court offense has been inefficient.

Colorado's shooters and the open three

Here is the counterweight. Colorado shoots 42.7% from three, 22nd nationally. Hargress and Inman are each at 50% from deep. Inman scored a career-high 26 points with eight threes in Tuesday's win over San Diego.

Providence's defense lets opponents shoot from outside. Opponents have taken 52.5% of their shots from three, the 12th-highest share in the country, and have made only 27.4%. That cold shooting came largely against Maine and Bryant. The question is whether it holds up against a team that can actually shoot. If Colorado keeps hitting at its current rate against that many open looks, the Friars' turnover edge may not be enough to cover the spread.

The Friars' missing jumper

Providence wants to shoot threes too. It takes 48.4% of its shots from deep, 50th nationally, but has made just 26.9%, which ranks 323rd. Malik Mack has carried the backcourt, and Devin Vanterpool scored 21 against Bryant. Hodgson said Thursday that Vanterpool is "still at like 80%" after the ankle injury that kept him out of the opener.

Inside, Jacob Bannarbie hasn't missed a field goal this season. Providence's defense has a weakness, though: it fouls. Opponents' free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 47.5%, 324th. Colorado gets to the line often, and Hargress makes 92.3% of his free throws.

New rosters and slow starts

Last season's numbers tell you little about either team. Providence brought in nine transfers and returns only 12.6% of last season's minutes. Colorado returns 36.5%. That also takes the edge off Colorado's 97-88 win over the Friars in Boulder last November.

Providence's depth should improve. Hodgson said he expects Ryan Mela, who had shin splints, and Samson Aletan, who ran a high fever, to be available after both missed the Bryant game. Ryan Sabol had a shoulder issue in the preseason, and Providence hasn't given an update on him.

Colorado has started slowly. It averages 29.0 first-half points, 325th nationally, and trailed at halftime against both San Diego State and San Diego. Providence allows 27.0 points per first half, 40th, so an early Friars lead is likely.

What the market is saying

Bettors have pushed this toward the home team. Providence was -10 when our feed first saw the game and now sits at -12.5. The total climbed from 152.5 to 156.5.

Both moves cut against the early-season record. Providence has failed to cover all three of its games, and all three went under. The underlying gap between these teams is also narrower than the spread implies: the Friars rank 117th in adjusted net efficiency and Colorado ranks 164th. Providence's 67-58 loss to Nebraska is its only test against a top opponent so far. Colorado lost 77-66 to San Diego State.