Colgate vs Drexel prediction: Drexel's stingy perimeter defense tests Colgate in the Dragons' home opener

A defense built to deny threes

Drexel opens its season on Nov. 7 at the Daskalakis Athletic Center. The game is listed at 2 p.m., though one schedule shows a 7 p.m. tip. If the Dragons win, their defense is the likeliest reason. Last season they held opponents to a 46.8% effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times. That ranked 24th of 365. Opponents made just 30.0% from deep, 12th nationally, and Drexel kept them from even getting many looks.

Colgate is the kind of offense that tests that. The Raiders posted a 54.2% effective field goal percentage last season, 77th, and made 35.9% of their threes. They scored 90 on Drexel in Hamilton last November, a 90-83 win that flipped a 73-56 Drexel home win the year before. Andrew Alekseyenko, the reigning Patriot League Rookie of the Year and a preseason All-Patriot pick, is the name to watch. ESPN and the league list different class years for him, but he is clearly back.

Where Drexel gives possessions away

The Dragons' biggest weakness last season was holding onto the ball. They turned it over on 19.2% of possessions, 326th in the country. Colgate may not be the opponent to punish that. The Raiders forced turnovers on just 15.4% of possessions last season, 292nd. They also protected the ball themselves, ranking 50th in turnover rate.

That sets up the real question: does Drexel's sloppiness carry over without Kevon Vanderhorst, a 33-game starter now at Iona? If the Dragons cough it up at last season's pace, Colgate gets the extra shots its offense needs.

Spiker rebuilds around shooters

Drexel brings back 66.8% of last season's minutes, but lost its leading scorer. Shane Blakeney averaged 14.2 points and is now at South Carolina. The returning core is efficient in spots. Eli Beard made 41.3% of his threes, and Garfield Turner shot 62.3% from the field inside. Josh Reed, whom Spiker counts among his key returners, carried a heavy load but needs to be more efficient. Dillon Tingler is also central to the plan.

The newcomers are Amaree Abram, Adrian Petkovic and Panagiotis Pagonis. Abram and Pagonis each scored eight to lead Drexel in an 81-52 exhibition loss at St. John's on Oct. 14. A freshman named Pittman has impressed Spiker with his scoring, though no starting role is confirmed. Drexel was picked ninth in the CAA, a ranking Spiker wants to prove wrong. Colgate tied for third in the Patriot poll.

Few possessions, and a free-throw problem

Both teams played slowly last season. Colgate ranked 223rd in pace and Drexel 291st, so expect a low-possession game where every empty trip matters. That puts weight on the free-throw line, where Drexel made just 66.1%, 353rd nationally. Colgate made 74.9%. If this one is close late, that gap favors the visitors, even with a Veterans Appreciation Day crowd behind the home team.