Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm prediction: Colgate's careful guards face Pitino's turnover machine in Queens
The No. 13 Red Storm force giveaways at an elite rate, Colgate rarely commits them, and a 28.5-point spread depends on which side wins that fight.
Colgate Raiders 59, St. John's Red Storm 90 (final). St. John's Red Storm covered the closing spread (Colgate Raiders +28.5). The game went under the closing total of 158.5.
| Spread | St. John's -29.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158.5 |
- St. John's should control the turnover and rebounding battles at home. Colgate needs Alekseyenko and Sam Wright to shoot hot to keep this within reach.
- Watch Quinn Ellis's ball pressure against Blake Forrest and Parker Jones. Ellis is averaging 4.0 steals through two games.
- St. John's is -28.5 with a total of 156.5, unmoved since first seen. Colgate's defense allows a 50.9% free throw rate, 332nd nationally.
Pressure against poise
Rick Pitino's teams make opponents earn every dribble, and this rebuilt group is no different. St. John's has forced turnovers on 25.7% of opponent possessions, 37th in Division I. Turnover rate counts giveaways per 100 possessions. Colgate is unusually stingy with its own, at 13.5%, which ranks 53rd.
That is the real contest inside a lopsided spread. Quinn Ellis sets the tone. The point guard was cleared by the NCAA before the season and is averaging 9.0 assists and 4.0 steals. If Colgate's backcourt keeps him from turning deflections into layups, the Raiders can drag this into a half-court game. If it can't, the margin grows fast. Pressure doesn't run the other way: Colgate barely forces turnovers, so St. John's should get a shot on almost every trip.
Alekseyenko and a thin cast
Colgate's offense runs through one player. Andrew Alekseyenko, the reigning Patriot League Rookie of the Year, is averaging 22.5 points and 12.5 rebounds. His usage rate, the share of team possessions that end with him, sits at 35.1%. Sam Wright has been a sharp second option at 18.0 points per game.
The rest of the roster is the worry. The Raiders bring back 53.5% of last season's minutes, but they lost lead guard Jalen Cox to USC. Parker Jones, who missed all of last season with an injury, is back in the lineup but went 0-for-7 from three at Drexel. Colgate is 0-2 after road losses at Washington and Drexel. It did cover as a 14.5-point underdog in Seattle.
Pitino's roster of newcomers
St. John's went 30-7 last season, but it returns just 17.8% of those minutes, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide. The transfers are doing the work. Keyshawn Hall, from Auburn, leads the team at 19.5 points. Tounde Yessoufou, from Baylor, adds 17.5 points on 65.9% effective field goal shooting, a measure that counts threes 1.5 times.
Availability comes with asterisks. Hall has played both games under a temporary restraining order in his lawsuit against the NCAA, and his case is still in court. Babacar Sane missed the Iona game with an ankle injury, and St. John's hasn't confirmed whether he plays Wednesday. His Nov. 9 eligibility hearing ended without a ruling, so he remains eligible for now. Forward Donnie Freeman is out for the season with a torn Achilles.
Whistles and the glass
Colgate's defense has a fouling problem. Opponents are drawing a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 50.9%, 332nd in the country. Its own trips to the line don't help: the Raiders shoot 55.6% on free throws, 351st.
Second chances won't come easily either. St. John's grabs 80.6% of opponent misses, 14th nationally. That leaves Colgate to make its first shot, against a roster that averages 78.8 inches to its 77.5.
Where the number sits
Nine books have St. John's at -28.5, and neither that line nor the 156.5 total has moved since our feed first saw it. The Red Storm have shown both sides of a number this big. They beat Monmouth 78-63 without covering, then crushed Iona 104-65. Fast starts drive those margins: St. John's averages 49.5 first-half points, 20th in Division I.
Colgate's two games have both gone over. Its defense is allowing 83.5 points per game, 313th, and that matters more to the total than the Raiders' own scoring.
Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm line movement and odds
| Book | Raiders ML | Storm ML | Raiders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | — | o158.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +29.5 (-117) | o159.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +4000 | -50000 | +28.5 (-108) | o158.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +8000 | -50000 | +28.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-106) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +29.5 (-115) | o158.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colgate Raiders: 63% of bets, 1% of the money; St. John's Red Storm: 37% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. John's Red Storm -30.5: 63% of bets, 91% of the money; Colgate Raiders +30.5: 37% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 67% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 157.5: 33% of bets, 11% of the money.
Key players
- Quinn Ellis (St. John's): Averaging 9.0 assists and 4.0 steals, he is the engine of the Red Storm's pressure.
- Keyshawn Hall (St. John's): Scoring 19.5 points per game while his eligibility case remains unresolved in court.
- Tounde Yessoufou (St. John's): Posted 23 points against Iona and carries a 65.9% effective field goal percentage.
- Andrew Alekseyenko (Colgate): Averaging 22.5 points and 12.5 rebounds on a 35.1% usage rate.
- Sam Wright (Colgate): Scoring 18.0 points per game with a team-best 128.1 offensive rating.
- Parker Jones (Colgate): Back from a season lost to injury, he is shooting 21.4% from three so far.
Numbers that matter
| St. John's forced turnover rate | 25.7% | Ranks 37th nationally and is the Red Storm's clearest path to a runaway. |
|---|---|---|
| Colgate turnover rate | 13.5% | Ranks 53rd, so the Raiders' ball security is their best defense against a blowout. |
| Colgate opponent free throw rate | 50.9% | Ranks 332nd, which hands St. John's easy points at the line. |
| St. John's returning minutes | 17.8% | Little of last season's 30-7 team remains, so this season's transfers define the Red Storm. |
| Spread | -28.5 | Unmoved since first seen. St. John's split two covers at similar numbers. |
Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm: quick answers
What was the final score of Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm?
Colgate Raiders 59, St. John's Red Storm 90 (final). St. John's Red Storm covered the closing spread (Colgate Raiders +28.5). The game went under the closing total of 158.5.
Who is favored in Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm?
St. John's is favored by 29.5 points (St. John's -29.5).
What is the over/under for Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm?
The total is 158.5 points.
When is Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm?
Yes: Colgate Raiders opened +25.5 and is now +28.5, and the total moved from 156.5 to 158.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Colgate Raiders vs St. John's Red Storm?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colgate Raiders: 63% of bets, 1% of the money; St. John's Red Storm: 37% of bets, 99% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. John's Red Storm -30.5: 63% of bets, 91% of the money; Colgate Raiders +30.5: 37% of bets, 9% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 67% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 157.5: 33% of bets, 11% of the money.