Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse prediction: Phat Phat Brooks and hot-shooting Central Michigan crash Northern Kentucky's home opener
The market trusts the Norse on their own floor after two road beatdowns, but undefeated Central Michigan's shot-making is aimed straight at the softest part of their defense.
Central Michigan Chippewas covered the closing spread (Central Michigan Chippewas +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 162.5.
| Spread | Northern Kentucky -3.25 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 162.5 |
- Expect a fast, high-scoring game: Northern Kentucky pushes tempo at home and Central Michigan's efficient shooters test a defense that has struggled badly.
- Phat Phat Brooks against Eric Acker and the Norse backcourt: CMU's leading scorer has turned into one of the most efficient guards around.
- Northern Kentucky is a 3.5-point favorite, up from 2.5, despite an adjusted net efficiency ranked 287th of 364.
The Norse finally come home
Northern Kentucky has not played a game at Truist Arena yet. The Norse opened with four games away from home, and the last two were brutal: a 104-67 loss at Texas A&M and a 125-63 loss at Saint Louis, two teams ranked 17th and 8th in adjusted net efficiency. Their wins came against UTEP and South Dakota, opponents ranked 289th and 358th.
That schedule explains why the season numbers look so grim, and why the market isn't overreacting to them. Adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) puts Northern Kentucky 287th and Central Michigan 68th. Even so, the Norse are favored by 3.5, and the line has moved toward them from the 2.5 our feed first recorded. Bettors are paying for the home floor and the idea that a team that lost two road blowouts to top-20 opponents is better than its ratings show.
Central Michigan arrives 3-0 and 2-0 against the spread, with a twist: the school placed head coach Andy Bronkema on leave Nov. 5 without explaining why, and interim coach Raymoan McAfee has won both games since.
Brooks leads a shooting surge
The Chippewas have been a different offense from last season's 10-21 team. Their effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times) sits at 59.5%, 39th nationally, and they hit 39.1% from three.
Brooks is the engine. He averages 19.0 points on 67.9% shooting, and his effective field goal percentage is 78.6% after sitting at 43.2% last season. He scored 22 in the 91-78 win over Youngstown State, the best opponent CMU has faced. Jalen Kampen has added 5 of 9 from three.
Northern Kentucky's defense is where that matters. Opponents post a 59.7% effective field goal percentage against the Norse, 350th nationally, and hit 40.5% from three. Two lopsided road games inflate those figures, but the Norse also block few shots, ranking 279th in block rate. CMU should get clean looks.
Turnovers and the foul line
Northern Kentucky's best path is the free-throw line. The Norse get there often, with a free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 45.1%, 71st nationally, and they make 77.6% once there. Central Michigan fouls a lot, allowing a free throw rate that ranks 290th. Expect Willie Foster, who shoots 90.5% from the line, to hunt contact.
The Norse give those possessions back, though. They turn the ball over on 23.4% of possessions, 346th nationally, and force turnovers at a rate ranked 354th. Central Michigan's ball pressure is middling, so this is less of a mismatch than it looks, but every giveaway costs a team that can't count on stops.
Pace points to a big total
Northern Kentucky plays fast, averaging 78.3 possessions per 40 minutes, 19th nationally, compared with Central Michigan's 72.5. More possessions mean more chances for CMU's efficient offense and for the Norse to reach the line.
The total of 162.5 hasn't moved since our feed first saw it. Both teams have trended high: Central Michigan is 2-0 to the over in lined games and Northern Kentucky 3-0 with one push. The Chippewas have also shown they can recover from slow starts; they trailed UL Monroe 43-32 at halftime before winning 83-78.
Rebuilt rosters, stale history
Northern Kentucky won last season's meeting 90-66 in Mount Pleasant, but little of that team remains. The Norse return 23.8% of last season's minutes and lost their top four scorers, including LJ Wells to Louisville. Transfers Noah Pagotto and Will Shortt now anchor the frontcourt. Central Michigan returns 39.7% of its minutes, including Brooks, Kampen, Keenan Garner and Jaxson Whitaker.
No injuries have surfaced for either team.
What to watch
- Whether Brooks keeps finishing at the rim against a Norse front line light on shot-blocking.
- Northern Kentucky's free-throw volume against a foul-prone CMU defense.
- Foster's shooting after a 2-of-14 night at Saint Louis.
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse line movement and odds
| Book | Chippewas ML | Norse ML | Chippewas spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -180 | +3.5 (-110) | o163.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +125 | -190 | +3.5 (-127) | o162.5 (-120) |
| DraftKings | +136 | -162 | +3.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 | +3.5 (-110) | o162.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 | +3.5 (-115) | o162 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +130 | -156 | +2.5 (-102) | o161.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -175 | +3.5 (-110) | o162.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +125 | -160 | +2.5 (-115) | o163.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse
On the Kalshi moneyline: Central Michigan Chippewas: 68% of bets, 18% of the money; Northern Kentucky Norse: 32% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northern Kentucky Norse -2.5: 89% of bets, 73% of the money; Central Michigan Chippewas +2.5: 12% of bets, 27% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 162.5: 59% of bets, 20% of the money; Under 162.5: 41% of bets, 80% of the money.
Key players
- Phat Phat Brooks (Central Michigan): Averages 19.0 points with a 78.6% effective field goal percentage, up from 43.2% last season.
- Conrad Luczynski (Central Michigan): Averages 10.0 points and 1.7 blocks in 17.0 minutes with a team-high 27.1% usage.
- Jayson Petty (Central Michigan): The Kansas City transfer averages 8.7 points off the bench after scoring 11.1 per game as a starter last season.
- Jalen Kampen (Central Michigan): Averages 10.3 points and has hit 5 of 9 from three.
- Willie Foster (Northern Kentucky): Averages 18.5 points with a 30.7% usage rate but went 2 of 14 at Saint Louis.
- Noah Pagotto (Northern Kentucky): The East Texas A&M transfer averages 16.8 points on 65.6% shooting, including 30 against South Dakota.
- Eric Acker (Northern Kentucky): Averages 5.8 assists but is shooting 18.8% from three.
- Will Shortt (Northern Kentucky): Averages 2.0 blocks in 18.0 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| Spread | -3.5 | Northern Kentucky is favored at home, up from 2.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
|---|---|---|
| NKU opponent eFG% | 59.7% | Ranks 350th, a soft spot against CMU's 59.5% shooting mark. |
| NKU turnover rate | 23.4% | Ranks 346th and undercuts the Norse's foul-drawing edge. |
| NKU pace | 78.3 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 19th nationally, behind a 162.5 total. |
| NKU adjusted net rank | 287th | Central Michigan ranks 68th, yet the market favors the Norse. |
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse: quick answers
What was the final score of Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse?
Central Michigan Chippewas 68, Northern Kentucky Norse 57 (final). Central Michigan Chippewas covered the closing spread (Central Michigan Chippewas +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 162.5.
Who is favored in Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse?
Northern Kentucky is favored by 3.25 points (Northern Kentucky -3.25).
What is the over/under for Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse?
The total is 162.5 points.
When is Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse?
Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse?
Yes: Central Michigan Chippewas opened +3 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 163 to 162.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Central Michigan Chippewas vs Northern Kentucky Norse?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Central Michigan Chippewas: 68% of bets, 18% of the money; Northern Kentucky Norse: 32% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northern Kentucky Norse -2.5: 89% of bets, 73% of the money; Central Michigan Chippewas +2.5: 12% of bets, 27% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 162.5: 59% of bets, 20% of the money; Under 162.5: 41% of bets, 80% of the money.