Central Connecticut vs Dartmouth prediction: Dartmouth's three-point habit greets Brett MacConnell against Central Connecticut
A first-year coach in Hanover inherits one of the country's most perimeter-heavy offenses, and a veteran Central Connecticut program under Patrick Sellers tests whether it travels into a new era.
- Expect a shooting game: neither team forced turnovers last season, so makes and misses from deep should decide the margin.
- Dartmouth's three-point volume against a Central Connecticut defense that held opponents to 32.9% from deep last season.
- No line has posted yet; last season's final adjusted ratings had Dartmouth 265th and Central Connecticut 299th despite opposite records.
A new coach, an old habit
Brett MacConnell takes over a Dartmouth team that shot like few others last season. The Big Green took 49.1% of their field goal attempts from three, 21st-most of 365 Division I teams, and they made enough to justify it at 36.2%, which ranked 52nd.
The question for the Nov. 8 home date at Leede Arena is whether MacConnell keeps that identity. His most interesting new piece suggests he might: Dan Civello, a 6-foot-10 transfer from Division III Colby, arrives billed as a shooter who can pass. A big who spaces the floor fits an offense built on volume from deep.
Central Connecticut's perimeter defense held opponents to 32.9% from three last season, 132nd nationally. That's solid, not suffocating, and it will be tested early by a team that lets it fly.
Continuity in New Britain
Central Connecticut brings stability. Patrick Sellers, a two-time NEC Coach of the Year, guided the Blue Devils to an 18-12 record and the No. 2 seed in the NEC tournament last season, and league coaches picked them third this year. Swingman James Jones returns, along with NEC All-Rookie selections Roddy Jones and Ashton Reynolds, and transfers Victor Payne and Jhace Johnson joined in the spring.
Dartmouth, picked eighth in the Ivy, went 11-16. Yet the schedule-adjusted numbers tell a different story. Adjusted efficiency measures points per 100 possessions after accounting for opponents, and by last season's final adjusted net rating Dartmouth ranked 265th while Central Connecticut sat 299th. The Blue Devils' raw net efficiency ranked 148th last season, well above their adjusted rank of 299th. A better record and a lower rating is the tension this game tests, with both rosters reshaped since.
No free possessions
Neither team made a living taking the ball away last season. Central Connecticut's forced turnover rate ranked 340th, Dartmouth's 344th. Dartmouth also rarely chased its misses, grabbing just 25.4% of available offensive rebounds, 344th nationally.
That combination strips out the extra possessions that usually swing games between evenly matched teams. With few steals and few second chances on the Dartmouth end, efficiency on clean looks should decide this one.
Tempo and the foul line
Central Connecticut played slowly last season. Central Connecticut played at 65.6 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 286th in pace, while Dartmouth ran at 68.9, 119th. Whoever sets the tempo shapes how many threes Dartmouth gets to launch.
The Blue Devils also defended without fouling: their opponent free throw rate ranked 11th in the country, which takes away a source of points for a Dartmouth team that got to the line often. When Central Connecticut did go to the stripe, it converted 76.9%, 30th nationally, a useful edge if this stays close late.
Key players
- Dan Civello (Dartmouth): A 6-foot-10 shooter with passing ability who could stretch defenses in a three-heavy system.
- Brett MacConnell (Dartmouth): Debuts at Leede Arena with a team picked eighth in the Ivy preseason poll.
- James Jones (Central Connecticut): The steadiest returning piece from last season's 18-12 team.
- Roddy Jones (Central Connecticut): An NEC All-Rookie Team pick last season who returns for a team picked third in the NEC.
- Ashton Reynolds (Central Connecticut): Another NEC All-Rookie selection back for a program that earned the No. 2 NEC seed last season.
Numbers that matter
| Dartmouth 3-point attempt rate, last season | 49.1% | 21st-most nationally, the defining trait MacConnell inherits. |
|---|---|---|
| CCSU opponent 3-point %, last season | 32.9% | Ranked 132nd, a solid but beatable perimeter defense. |
| CCSU opponent free throw rate rank, last season | 11th | The Blue Devils rarely fouled, limiting cheap points. |
| Forced turnover rate rank, last season | 344th | Dartmouth's mark, and Central Connecticut ranked 340th, so few extra possessions. |
| Adjusted net rank, last season's final | 265th | Dartmouth's rating, ahead of Central Connecticut's 299th despite a losing record. |
Central Connecticut vs Dartmouth: quick answers
When is Central Connecticut vs Dartmouth?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.