Cal State Fullerton vs South Dakota prediction: Cal State Fullerton's breakneck pace tests South Dakota's porous defense in Vermillion
Last season the Titans played faster than all but one Division I team, and the Coyotes gave up points at a bottom-tier rate, so the early November opener sets up as a track meet.
- Expect a fast, high-scoring game: both teams allowed more than 80 points per game last season and Fullerton pushed tempo relentlessly.
- Look for South Dakota's drives to the foul line against a Fullerton defense that let opponents finish inside at one of the worst rates in the country.
- No spread or total is posted yet; Fullerton's pace last season, second of 365, is the number that should shape the total.
Few teams ran faster
Cal State Fullerton's identity under Dedrique Taylor last season was speed. The Titans averaged 75.5 possessions per 40 minutes, the second-fastest pace in Division I, and scored 83.0 points per game. South Dakota was no slouch either, ranking 56th in pace.
The catch is what happened at the other end. Fullerton allowed 81.7 points per game, 345th of 365, and South Dakota gave up 80.2, which ranked 332nd. Two teams that like to run and struggled to get stops are a recipe for a crowded scoreboard.
All of this is last season's data. Neither team has played yet, and how much of each roster returns isn't known, so treat these numbers as a starting point rather than a forecast.
The Coyotes live at the line
South Dakota's best offensive weapon last season was getting fouled. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 44.8%, sixth in the country. Fullerton's defense sat in the middle of the pack at preventing that, ranking 183rd in opponent free throw rate.
The Coyotes also shot mostly inside the arc, ranking 258th in 3-point attempt rate. That plays into Fullerton's softest spot: opponents made 55.9% of their twos against the Titans, 340th nationally. If South Dakota keeps attacking the paint, the whistle and the layups should both come.
Where Fullerton steals possessions
The Titans offset their defensive leaks by taking the ball away. They forced turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions last season, 43rd in Division I. South Dakota's ball security was average, ranking 157th in turnover rate, so live-ball steals could fuel Fullerton's transition game.
The Titans gave some of that back on the glass. Their offensive rebound rate ranked 342nd, meaning Fullerton rarely got second chances. A one-shot-and-run offense depends on hitting that first shot.
A coach of the year and new faces
Taylor enters his 13th season fresh off a two-year extension and the 2026 Big West Coach of the Year award. His team was picked last in the 2025-26 Big West coaches' poll, then went 12-8 in league play and earned the No. 3 seed. Media voters have picked the Titans 7th in the Big West this fall.
South Dakota, 16-16 last season under Eric Peterson, lists transfers from Iowa State, Creighton and South Alabama on its roster: Cade Kelderman, Ethan Kizer and Josh Townley-Thomas. How much they reshape a defense that ranked 312th in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) is the biggest unknown for the home side. No injury news has surfaced for either team.
Numbers that matter
| Fullerton pace, last season | 75.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes, second-fastest in Division I. |
|---|---|---|
| South Dakota free throw rate, last season | 44.8% | Sixth nationally, the Coyotes' most reliable source of offense. |
| Fullerton opponent 2-point %, last season | 55.9% | Ranked 340th, a weak spot for a South Dakota team that rarely shot threes. |
| Fullerton forced turnover rate, last season | 19.9% | Ranked 43rd, the Titans' best defensive tool. |
| South Dakota adjusted net efficiency, last season | -11.4 | Ranked 287th, well behind Fullerton's 185th. |
Cal State Fullerton vs South Dakota: quick answers
When is Cal State Fullerton vs South Dakota?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.