Butler vs Boise State prediction: Boise State's brand-new starting five faces Butler's returning core

One roster stayed, one didn't

Boise State finishes a home-and-home with Butler by hosting a Big East team at ExtraMile Arena for the first time. The Broncos want the sweep after winning 77-68 at Butler last December. But the team that won that game is mostly gone. Boise State is replacing all five starters. It brings back eight players and adds transfers Dovydas Butka (Campbell), Jikany Deang, Jerquarius Stanback (Alabama State), Damari Wheeler-Thomas (NDSU) and Ty Rodgers (Illinois). Preseason coverage expected Rodgers to miss an extended stretch with a knee injury, though that was a projection rather than a confirmed status.

Butler went the other way. Two starters return, and the bench has a new coach. Ronald Nored, a former Butler player, is in his first season in charge. Starters Jalen Jackson and Drayton Jones both return. That continuity is Butler's best argument, and it hangs partly on Jackson's health. He was listed day-to-day after hurting his left leg in the exhibition win over Indiana State. Nored said the call would depend on how he progressed, and no newer status has surfaced. Nored also said Adler is back competing in practice.

Leon Rice, in his 17th season, has rebuilt rosters before. Boise State sits sixth in the Pac-12 preseason power rankings in its first year in the league. Because so few starters remain, the Broncos' numbers from last season describe a team that no longer exists.

A parade to the line

If any style trait carries over, it is free throws. Butler's free throw rate last season, meaning free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 42.1%, which ranked 25th. Boise State's was 41.7%, which ranked 33rd. The difference came at the stripe. The Broncos made 78.6% of their free throws, 10th nationally. Butler made 71.9%, which ranked 206th.

Butler's defense also kept opponents off the line better than almost anyone. Its opponent free throw rate ranked 7th last season. In a close game in Boise, that discipline matters, and so does who returns to take the late free throws.

Butler's crash, Boise's glass

Butler's best way to create extra possessions last season was the offensive glass. It grabbed 34.6% of its own misses, which ranked 66th. Boise State's defensive rebounding ranked 3rd in the country at 77.1%.

Neither defense took the ball away. Butler's forced turnover rate ranked 297th and Boise State's ranked 329th. Possessions here are more likely to end in a shot than a steal, so second chances become the main way to steal extra trips. Whether Boise State's new frontcourt can match last season's rebounding is the clearest unknown on the floor.

A tempo tug-of-war

Butler played faster last season at 69.4 possessions per 40 minutes, 92nd nationally. Boise State slowed games down at 65.8, which ranked 279th. The Broncos also leaned on the three more, with a 3-point attempt rate that ranked 124th to Butler's 275th.

The defenses were the weak spot for both teams last season. Butler allowed 110.0 points per 100 possessions, 221st, and Boise State allowed 109.1, 205th. Opponent-adjusted, meaning points per 100 possessions corrected for schedule strength, the gap favored the Broncos: 104.4 allowed against Butler's 106. Those are last season's final ratings, and Boise State's turnover makes its figure the less reliable of the two.

What to watch

• Jackson's leg. A healthy Butler starter makes continuity the edge. A limited one shifts the balance toward the home side.
• Boise State's rotation. Watch which transfers start and whether Rodgers is available.
• Free throw volume. Both teams draw fouls, and Boise State converted at a much higher clip last season.
• Tip time. The game is set for noon Mountain on USA, though some schedule listings show other times.