Bellarmine vs Miami (OH) prediction: Ipsaro, Skaljac and Miami's offense take aim at Bellarmine's defense

The nation's best offense returns

Miami went 32-2 last season with an offense that scored 132.2 points per 100 possessions, first of 365 in Division I. Most of that group is back. The RedHawks return 11 players, including Evan Ipsaro and Luke Skaljac, both named to the Preseason All-MAC First Team. MAC coaches picked Miami first with 130 points and nine first-place votes, ahead of Toledo and Akron. Travis Steele, in his fifth season, also carries the memory of a First Four win over SMU, the program's last game.

Bellarmine's three-point problem

This is the matchup that should tilt the game. Last season Bellarmine allowed opponents to take 50.4% of their shots from three, the fourth-highest rate in the country, and those opponents hit 39.7%, the worst mark in Division I. Its adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents, finished 126, ranked 365th.

Miami is built to punish exactly that. The RedHawks took 45.5% of their shots from deep last season (57th most) and made 38.7%, 10th nationally. Closing out on shooters wasn't a strength for Bellarmine, and the inside was no refuge either: opponents made 57.2% of their twos, 352nd.

A rebuilt Bellarmine on the road

Bellarmine's offense was genuinely good last season. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, was 59.9, sixth nationally, and it shot 79.2% at the line, fourth. The catch is that the Knights must replace their top two scorers, Jack Karasinski and Brian Waddell, which makes those numbers a weak guide. Kenyon Goodin, Tyler Doyle and Sam Donald are the named returners for Doug Davenport, now in his second season.

The early evidence wasn't kind. Bellarmine lost an exhibition at Wright State 76-54 after falling behind on a 14-0 opening run and trailing by as many as 29. The schedule adds strain: the Knights play at Vanderbilt on Nov. 2 and at Indiana on Nov. 5 before arriving at Millett Hall.

Where Bellarmine can find possessions

Miami's soft spot last season was its own defense, which allowed 111.1 points per 100 possessions, 252nd nationally. That leaves room for a Bellarmine offense that can shoot, if the new pieces fit.

Extra chances won't come on the glass. Bellarmine grabbed just 23.1% of its misses last season, 355th, and Miami's defensive rebounding rate of 71.7% ranked 96th. The Knights will need to make shots the first time, which puts the burden on a backcourt still finding its identity.