Arkansas vs Virginia prediction: Calipari's rebuilt Arkansas tests Virginia's continuity in Washington

A roster Calipari started over

Two top-12 teams open their seasons in a marquee spot. One of them is running it back, and the other is starting from scratch. Arkansas finished last season with the No. 8 raw offense in the country, then lost nearly all of it. Darius Acuff Jr. went seventh in the NBA Draft, and Meleek Thomas and Trevon Brazile left too. Players on this season's roster logged just 15.7% of last season's Arkansas minutes.

That makes last season's Arkansas numbers a weak guide. The bigger clues are the new pieces. Jeremiah Wilkinson arrives from Georgia, where he scored 17.4 points a game on a 30.5% usage rate, the share of possessions a player finishes while on the floor. Billy Richmond III is the main holdover, and nine freshmen fill out the roster. The early returns were encouraging. On Oct. 24 the Hogs erased a double-digit deficit to beat No. 15 Gonzaga 76-72 in an exhibition.

Whose tempo wins out

Last season Arkansas played at 72 possessions per 40 minutes, 17th-fastest in Division I. Virginia played at 66.2, which ranked 261st. Ryan Odom's second Virginia team keeps the guards who ran that slower game, Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory among them.

The difference shapes the game. Arkansas also gave up 81.0 points a game last season, which ranked 341st, and fewer possessions shrink the room a young team has to make mistakes and recover from them. Last season's defense ranked 249th in raw efficiency but improved to 60th once adjusted for schedule. A new roster could land anywhere between those two marks. Virginia's half-court defense is the steadier unit: opponents made just 44.8% of their twos, eighth-best in the country.

Second chances and the rim

Virginia's offense lived on extra possessions and threes last season. The Cavaliers rebounded 37.8% of their misses, 11th nationally, and took threes on 46.7% of their shots, the 37th-highest rate. Arkansas cleaned up only 69.1% of opponents' misses, which ranked 233rd. If a freshman-heavy frontcourt doesn't box out, Virginia will get more chances at those threes.

One piece of Virginia's interior identity is gone. Ugonna Onyenso, who blocked 2.9 shots a game off the bench, has used up his eligibility. He was a big reason Virginia ranked second in block rate. Thijs De Ridder, who scored 15.6 points a game, now carries more of the frontcourt load. Transfers Jurian Dixon, Jan Vide, Kalu Anya and Christian Harmon, along with freshman Favor Ibe, provide the new depth. Dallin Hall, Malik Thomas and Jacari White are also gone, so Lewis and Mallory take over more of the backcourt.

Health on the Arkansas side

Arkansas has more availability questions. Cooper Bowser, the Furman transfer projected to start at center, was in a splint and missing practice with a suspected wrist fracture around Sept. 30. That report had not been confirmed with staff, and there has been no update since. At Furman he shot 76.6% from the field, so his status matters for the rebounding matchup.

Jordan Smith Jr. went down against Gonzaga, returned about six minutes later and is expected to miss no time. Isaiah Sealy needs knee surgery and has no timeline. One report around Sept. 30 called the injury season-ending. Seven-footer Paulo Semedo missed the Bahamas trip with a back injury. Five-star freshman Miikka Muurinen was reported NCAA-eligible around the same date.

On Virginia's side, Mallory was reported ready to play after sitting out the Sept. 27 exhibition against Vanderbilt. Harmon's status had not been confirmed as of mid-October.

What to watch

• Wilkinson's shot diet: He made 35.7% of his threes at Georgia. Virginia held opponents to 31.6% from deep last season, 54th nationally.
• Ball security: Arkansas had the lowest turnover rate in the country last season at 12.3%, but Acuff ran that offense, so a new backcourt has to earn the same reputation.
• The setting: This is the first meeting since 1998, and Virginia leads the series 4-3. Tipoff is Sunday, Nov. 8, at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN, at Capital One Arena rather than either campus.