Los Angeles Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: Thunder's swarming guards face a Clippers team that can't hold the ball

A pick, a streak and a mismatch

The Thunder are likely to own the Clippers' 2027 first-round pick, so every Los Angeles loss this season has a second audience in Oklahoma City. Sunday's game at Paycom Center (7:10 PM ET) puts that rebuilding roster against the stingiest defense in the early season. The Clippers have lost nine consecutive games in Oklahoma City, and they arrive carrying the one habit most likely to extend that run: they give the ball away.

Giveaways against grabby hands

Los Angeles turns the ball over on 21.1% of its possessions, last in the league. Friday's 125-117 loss at the Lakers showed the problem at full volume: 26 turnovers, with Darius Garland committing a career-high nine. That matters more than usual because the offense now runs through Garland.

The Thunder are built to cash those mistakes in. They force turnovers on 17.7% of opponent possessions, 9th in the league. Thursday, Denver gave the ball away 22 times, and Mitchell and Wallace combined for nine steals in a 96-84 win. Wallace is projected to take over the starting spot left by Lu Dort, who was traded this offseason, which puts another pest at the point of attack.

Hot shooting runs into a wall

When the Clippers do get a shot up, it has gone in. Their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) sits at 60.0%, 2nd in the league, and they are making 41.7% of their threes. That pace of shot-making is hard to sustain anywhere, and it is harder here. Oklahoma City holds opponents to a 43.4% effective field goal percentage, 2nd in the league, and blocks 17.6% of opponent two-point attempts, the top rate in the NBA. Chet Holmgren, who blocked 1.9 shots a game last season, is the reason driving lanes close fast.

The Thunder are winning ugly

Oklahoma City's offense has not looked like a champion's yet. Its offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) is 104.0, 24th in the league, and its effective field goal percentage is 48.2%, 29th. The Thunder are also barely reaching the line, with the league's lowest free throw rate.

What keeps them afloat is ball security: a 12.8% turnover rate, 4th best. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points last season, and his long streak of 20-point games ended Thursday against Denver. Jalen Williams is off the injury report after a preseason hamstring issue; he played 33 minutes against the Nuggets, and general manager Sam Presti said the hamstring looks "fantastic."

Clippers rebuilt and short-handed

Last season's Clippers numbers tell you little. Only 48.7% of last season's minutes return, after Kawhi Leonard (now in Toronto), James Harden (Cleveland) and Ivica Zubac (Indiana) left. Brandon Ingram, who averaged 21.5 points for the Raptors last season, is out after heel surgery with an estimated return of Nov. 8. Bradley Beal (knee), Max Strus (foot), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (foot) and Jordan Miller (shoulder) were all listed out as of Oct. 25, though at least one listing showed several of them as day-to-day, so check status near tip.

That leaves Rui Hachimura, who shot 44.3% from three for the Lakers last season, and rookie Keaton Wagler to carry more. Brook Lopez outplayed Isaiah Jackson at center on opening night. For Oklahoma City, Nikola Topić and Thomas Sorber were both listed out as of Oct. 25.

Where the market sits

The Thunder are 15.5-point favorites with a total of 222.5, and neither number has moved since the line first appeared Sunday morning. Both teams are 2-0 against the spread. Both Thunder games have gone under, a fair reflection of a team that defends far better than it currently scores.

Last season's three meetings were not close: Oklahoma City won 122-101 at home and 128-110 in Los Angeles in April.