Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks prediction: Banchero out, Magic's cold jumper takes on a stingy Knicks defense

Orlando without its engine

Someone leaves Madison Square Garden with a first win on Sunday night. The Knicks are the first reigning champion to open 0-2 since the 2011-12 Mavericks, and their offense is the reason. Orlando arrives with a bigger problem: Paolo Banchero is out four to six weeks with a right high-ankle sprain.

Banchero averaged 22.2 points last season, the most on the roster. He left the first half of Friday's 115-93 home loss to Minnesota and won't be back until late November at the earliest. The list doesn't stop there. Jonathan Isaac (knee) is ruled out, Noah Penda (partially torn hamstring) and Izaiyah Nelson (ankle surgery) are out, and Anthony Black was questionable with a sprained right ankle as of Saturday. Black averaged 15.0 points last season, so his status matters.

Tristan da Silva will likely step into the starting group. Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane and Wendell Carter Jr. are expected to absorb more of the load for first-year coach Sean Sweeney. Nikola Vucevic, who averaged 15.1 points for the Bulls last season, gives Orlando another post scorer to lean on.

A jumper that hasn't arrived

Orlando takes 46.7% of its shots from three, 3rd-most in the league. It makes just 26.6% of them, 27th. Inside the arc it has been the opposite story: a 63.3% mark on twos ranks 2nd.

That interior scoring ran through Banchero, and the Knicks are a hard place to rebuild it. New York allows 39.0 points in the paint per game, 4th-fewest in the league. Strip away the rim attempts and the Magic are left firing threes they haven't been making.

New York's trouble is at the other end. The Knicks score 100.5 points per 100 possessions, 29th of 30, a long way from the 116.7 that ranked 3rd last season. They're shooting 43.6% on twos, last in the league, and Mikal Bridges went 0-of-8 from the field in Friday's loss at Boston. Jalen Brunson averaged 26.0 points last season; a bounce-back has a soft target in an Orlando defense allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions.

Second chances and the line

Misses only hurt if the other team cleans them up, and New York does. The Knicks have grabbed 81.6% of available defensive rebounds, 2nd in the league. Orlando has rebounded just 19.5% of its own misses, 29th, so a cold shooting night rarely comes with a second look.

The Magic's other lifeline has been the foul line. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 34.3% ranks 5th. New York's defense allows a rate of 24.4%, 3rd-lowest, and without Banchero bullying his way inside, Orlando's trips to the stripe could dry up.

On the glass, the Magic's own defensive rebounding (66.3%, 28th) gives Karl-Anthony Towns, who averaged 11.9 rebounds last season, room to feast.

What the number says

The Knicks are 7.5-point favorites with a total of 224.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game. The moneyline sits at -300 for New York.

Neither team has covered yet. Orlando lost both of its home games as a favorite, while New York lost to Philadelphia as a 4.5-point favorite and at Boston as a short underdog. The Knicks have gone under in both games, playing at 101.0 possessions per game, 29th in pace. That fits their profile: last season they went under 39 times in 67 games with a line.

The counterweight is Orlando's defense early. The Magic have allowed 64.5 first-half points per game, 28th. The teams split four meetings last season, and Orlando won 124-107 at the Garden in November.

What to watch

• Black and Alvarado: both were questionable as of Saturday; if Alvarado sits, Miles McBride, Jordan Clarkson and Tyler Kolek pick up minutes.
• Orlando's three-point volume: whether da Silva and Bane can make enough to keep the Knicks honest.
• Bridges: a shooter who went scoreless Friday against a Magic defense that ranks 24th in opponent three-point percentage.