Indiana Pacers vs Brooklyn Nets prediction: Haliburton's paint-pounding Pacers catch a tired, winless Nets team

Two offenses, opposite directions

Tyrese Haliburton scored 23 points in his first game back from the torn Achilles he suffered in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals, and the Pacers won it. Two days later they were run off their own floor by Dallas. The question for Sunday is which version shows up in Brooklyn against a Nets team still looking for its first win.

The Pacers have built an early identity around the rim. They lead the league with 62.0 points in the paint per game and are hitting 60.3% of their twos, 4th of 30. New center Ivica Zubac, who averaged 10.6 rebounds for the Clippers last season, gives Haliburton a big target. The flip side: Indiana is making just 25.8% of its threes, 29th in the league, and rarely takes them.

That plays straight into Brooklyn's weak spot. Opponents are making 58.1% of their twos against the Nets, 25th in the league, and Brooklyn ranks 24th in block rate. The Nets do the reverse on offense. They take threes on 45.2% of their shots and make 40.0% of them, both 6th, while hitting only 44.3% inside the arc, 29th. Michael Porter Jr. and his volume shooting are the reason this can stay close: Brooklyn can win the math from deep even if Indiana wins the paint.

Live-ball turnovers decide the margin

Brooklyn's best defensive weapon is its hands. The Nets force turnovers on 20.6% of opponent possessions (turnovers per 100 possessions), 2nd in the league. Indiana's own ball security has been middle of the pack, and with T.J. McConnell out for Sunday with a right hamstring injury, Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard carry more of the ballhandling load.

The Nets give a lot of it back. They cough it up on 19.6% of their own possessions, 26th of 30, and now play without Brown, their sixth overall pick. Indiana doesn't force many turnovers, though, so Brooklyn's sloppiness may cost less here than it would against a pressing team. If the Nets win the turnover battle clearly, the cover is in play. If they don't, their thin interior defense has nowhere to hide.

Second night, slow starts

Brooklyn lost at Cleveland on Saturday, rallying late before falling 125-121, and now plays the first of a league-high 16 back-to-backs this season. Brown sits on the second night. "At some point he'll be able to play more minutes, he'll be able to play back-to-backs, but it's not right now," Jordi Fernandez said. Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder) missed Saturday, and his status for Sunday is unsettled.

Indiana's problem has been the opening 24 minutes. The Pacers average 49.5 first-half points, 29th, and allow 71.5, dead last, a number inflated by trailing Dallas 43-77 at the break. Brooklyn hasn't started well either. A fast Indiana start against tired legs would make this a different game.

The Pacers are also thin on the wing. Ben Sheppard is out with a torn meniscus in his left knee, Johnny Furphy is out with a torn ACL, and Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) is probable after coming off the bench Friday. Haliburton is not on the injury report, though Indiana plays at Milwaukee on Monday and it's unclear whether he's ready for back-to-backs.

Where the line sits

Indiana is a 7-point favorite with a total of 231.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game. Both teams are 1-1 against the spread.

The Pacers took the last two meetings last season, including a 123-94 rout at Barclays on April 9. Both rosters have changed since, with Julius Randle and Zubac the headline arrivals.

The total reflects a faster Brooklyn. The Nets are playing at 107.0 possessions per game, 8th, after ranking 27th in pace last season. Whether tired legs keep that tempo on the second night is the open question for the over.