Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction: Without Embiid or Duren, Detroit's new shooters test a tired Sixers team

Detroit learned to shoot

Two unbeaten Eastern Conference teams, and neither will have its center. Joel Embiid sits the second night of a back-to-back, Jalen Duren is out with a strained hamstring, and what's left is a Detroit team that suddenly shoots like nobody else against a Philadelphia roster still learning itself.

Last season the Pistons were a paint team. They scored 57.9 points in the paint per game, 1st in the league, and ranked 29th in 3-point attempt rate. Two games in, that identity has flipped. Threes make up 44.6% of their shots (8th), and they are making 42.3% of them, best in the NBA. That drives an effective field goal percentage, where threes count 1.5 times, of 58.6, 3rd in the league.

The newcomers explain much of it. Isaiah Joe made 42.3% of his threes for Oklahoma City last season, and John Collins shot 40.6% for the Clippers. Duncan Robinson, back for another year, hit 41.0% last season.

Philadelphia's early defense has been built to deny exactly this. Opponents rank 28th of 30 in how often they shoot threes against the Sixers, and they're hitting just 30.2% (9th). The catch: that was with Embiid anchoring the back line.

Two benches stretched thin

Duren strained his right hamstring in the second quarter of Friday's win in Miami and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. Ausar Thompson sprained his right ankle in the same game, skipped Sunday's shootaround and is day-to-day, trending the wrong way. If he sits, Javonte Green, Joe and Ron Holland II should see more time. Losing Thompson costs Detroit its best ball hawk: he averaged 2.0 steals last season, and the Pistons rank 28th in forced turnover rate.

The Sixers' list is longer. Embiid is out for plantar fasciitis management after posting 28 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists against Milwaukee on Saturday. Jabari Walker (knee) and Tacko Fall (quad) are out, Ariel Hukporti is done for the season, and Dominick Barlow was ruled out for at least two weeks as of Oct. 19 with a back stress injury. That leaves Bona as the likely starter at center.

LeBron James sat Saturday with a back issue, and his Sunday status is unsettled: one late report had him off the injury report, an earlier one listed him questionable. Dean Wade is available.

Who keeps the ball

Philadelphia isn't winning with shot-making. Its offense scores 105.5 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the league, and it ranks dead last in offensive rebound rate at 17.8%.

What the Sixers do is protect the ball. Their turnover rate of 12.2 per 100 possessions ranks 1st. Detroit sits 23rd at 17.8, so the Pistons give away possessions that Philadelphia, 8th in steal rate, can turn into the 20.3 fast-break points it averages (6th). If Detroit's shooting cools even slightly, that gap in giveaways is how the Sixers stay close.

The paint is the other soft spot. Philadelphia allows 54.0 points in the paint per game, 22nd, and that was with Embiid available. Detroit's interior scoring has already dipped to 43.0 per game (25th), and now it loses Duren.

Fast pace, slow starts

The Sixers play fast, 4th in pace at 109.6 possessions per game, while Detroit sits 19th. Philadelphia also starts poorly: it allows 62.3 first-half points per game, 25th in the league, and trailed Cleveland 45-69 at the break before winning 114-106.

The Pistons have shown the same resilience, coming back from 45-58 down at halftime to beat Boston. Fatigue is the variable. Philadelphia played Saturday, and its comebacks have leaned on legs it may not have tonight. Detroit has had two days off.

The market flipped

The first line our feed recorded had Philadelphia favored by 2.5. With Embiid ruled out, it has swung to Detroit by 1, while the total has barely moved to 228 from 227.5.

History leans Detroit too. The Pistons, 60-22 last season, swept all four meetings, including a 116-93 win in Philadelphia on April 4. Those games came against a Sixers roster that returns only 55.8% of last season's minutes, so they say more about Detroit than about this Philadelphia team.

Detroit is 2-0 against the spread with both games going over. The Sixers are 2-1 against the spread, missing only as 12.5-point favorites against Milwaukee.