Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings prediction: Kings' missing centers leave the paint open for unbeaten Memphis

No center left in Sacramento

Sacramento's frontcourt is mostly a list of absences. Maxime Raynaud is out with a right knee injury and Dylan Cardwell with a left calf strain, both expected to miss at least the first five or six games. Ben Simmons had surgery on a torn right Achilles tendon and is out for the season. Keegan Murray tweaked his left ankle in Friday's loss to Portland, didn't return, and is questionable with ankle capsulitis.

The damage already shows. The Kings' block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) is 2.1%, 30th of 30, and opponents are making 64.2% of their twos, 28th. That is the team that takes the floor Sunday, not a version waiting to get healthy.

Memphis is built to punish it. The Grizzlies rebound 37.1% of their own misses, 2nd in the league, while Sacramento sits 13th on the defensive glass. At the other end Memphis blocks 16.5% of opponent twos, 2nd, though how much of that leaves with Edey is the open question.

Memphis without its big man

Edey is out for left ankle injury management, so the pregame storyline, Edey against Domantas Sabonis, is off. Sabonis averaged just 11.5 points in their two prior meetings, though the Kings won both. Sabonis has no injury listing for Sunday.

With Edey down, Isaiah Stewart and Quinten Post are the candidates for more minutes. Stewart missed the opener with an ankle sprain, was upgraded to questionable before Friday, and does not appear on Sunday's injury lists. Cedric Coward, a starter in the opener, is questionable with a left wrist sprain.

This is a reshaped roster: Memphis returns 52.6% of last season's minutes, so last year's team numbers say little. The most important newcomer is Jerami Grant, who averaged 18.6 points for Portland last season and is part of a bench group, with Cam Spencer and Scotty Pippen Jr., that could see more work. Tuomas Iisalo has a 2-0 team that is winning without a settled rotation.

Where the Kings can steal possessions

Memphis's flaw is the ball. The Grizzlies turn it over on 20.5% of possessions (turnovers per 100 possessions), 29th. Sacramento's defense ranks 25th at forcing turnovers, so the giveaways may not turn into easy points.

Fouling is the other leak. Memphis opponents attempt free throws at a rate of 39.0% of their shots, 29th, and the Kings get to the line at an above-average clip, 11th. With no rim threat at center, getting to the stripe is Sacramento's best way to score.

The Kings won't make it up from deep. They hit 27.1% of their threes, 26th, and take among the fewest in the league. Memphis has shooters, led by Spencer, who made 44.9% of his threes last season. Malik Monk was upgraded to probable before Friday, but there is no Sunday update, and Sacramento has no true backup point guard when he sits.

What the market says

Memphis is a 4.5-point road favorite, and neither the spread nor the 236.5 total has moved since our feed first saw the game. The Grizzlies are 2-0 against the spread and both of their games went under, closing at 240.5 against Utah and 236.5 at Golden State.

Sacramento covered as a 9.5-point underdog in Friday's eight-point loss to Portland. Last season Memphis won three of four meetings, including a 137-96 rout in Memphis. With Coward, Murray and Monk all uncertain, late news could still move this line.