Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets prediction: Curry and the Warriors' hot shooting test Houston's stingy perimeter defense
Golden State brings the league's best 3-point shooting and an eight-game streak into Houston, where the Rockets have been the hardest team to shoot over and are favored without their two backup centers.
Houston Rockets covered the closing spread (Golden State Warriors +6.5). The game went over the closing total of 219.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Houston Rockets on the moneyline (9 wallets, 82% one way): it won.
| Spread | Houston Rockets -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 220 |
- Expect a slower, half-court game in which Golden State needs its threes to fall against a defense that rarely allows them to.
- Stephen Curry against Houston's perimeter defense: he shoots 45.7% from three, and the Rockets hold opponents to 31.4%, 2nd in the league.
- Houston is a 6-point favorite, up from -4.5 earlier in the week, despite Golden State covering eight of 11 this season.
The best shooters against the best wall
Golden State's eight-game run has been built from the 3-point line. The Warriors lead the league at 40.3% from deep, and they lean on it, ranking 6th in 3-point attempt rate. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, ranks 2nd.
Houston is built to take that away. Rockets opponents hit just 31.4% of their threes, 2nd-best in the NBA. That is the matchup that decides this game.
Curry is the pressure point. He is averaging 30.6 points and has made 42 threes in nine games at a 45.7% clip. The rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, taken 11th in June's draft, has become a real second option, shooting 44.3% from three. If Houston's defenders chase those two off the line, the Warriors need De'Anthony Melton and Brandin Podziemski to keep the spacing honest.
Houston plays without its backup bigs
The Rockets will be missing size. Steven Adams (calf) and Clint Capela (ankle) are both out. Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday at Washington, and Capela either there or Nov. 16 in Miami. One listing has Capela as day-to-day, but the league report still has him out.
That matters because the glass is where Houston usually wins. The Rockets rank 5th in offensive rebound rate at 31.6%, the share of their own misses they recover. The Warriors rank 19th in defensive rebound rate. Without their bruisers, more of that work falls on Alperen Sengun, who averages 9.1 rebounds and 7.8 assists as the hub of the offense.
There is a soft spot in Houston's defense, too. Opponents make 56.6% of their twos against the Rockets, 24th in the league. Golden State hasn't lived in the paint, though, ranking 22nd in paint points. Kevin Durant, facing his former team, gives Houston 21.0 points and 1.4 blocks a night.
A short-handed streak hits the road
The Warriors are the first team in NBA history to start 0-3 and then win eight straight, and they closed Monday by routing New Orleans 138-87. All five of their most recent wins came at home, though. Houston opens a five-game road trip for Golden State, which is 2-2 away from Chase Center.
The backcourt is thin. Gary Payton II (knee) is listed out, though one listing still shows him as day-to-day. Will Richard, who started two of the past three games, was questionable on Monday's report with a torn thumb ligament. Steve Kerr said Richard might play with a splint or need surgery. Brandon Williams, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis are all out. Neither team is on a back-to-back. Both played at home Monday.
Slow tempo, tight starts
Houston plays at the 27th-fastest pace in the league, about 99.9 possessions a game, and smothers teams early. The Rockets allow just 48.6 first-half points, the fewest in the NBA. Golden State plays at a middle-of-the-pack tempo, 17th.
Last season's three meetings were all close. Houston won 104-100 and 117-116 in San Francisco, and Golden State won 115-113 in Houston.
Where the number sits
Houston is favored by 6, up from -4.5 when our feed first saw the game. The move came even though Golden State is 8-3 against the spread. Houston is also 8-3, though it failed to cover as a favorite against Minnesota and Phoenix before beating Denver. The total has barely moved, from 223.0 to 222.5. Both teams are 6-5 to the over, and Houston's last five games went under four times.
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets line movement and odds
| Book | Warriors ML | Rockets ML | Warriors spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 | +6.5 (-105) | o219.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | +185 | -230 | +5.5 (-108) | o219.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +205 | -249 | +6.5 (-110) | o219.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +200 | -240 | +6.5 (-110) | o219.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +200 | -245 | +6.5 (-110) | o219.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +205 | -250 | +6.5 (-110) | o219.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +210 | -260 | +6.5 (-105) | o219.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +205 | -250 | +5.5 (-105) | o220 (-110) |
Where the money is on Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets
On the Kalshi moneyline: Golden State Warriors: 77% of bets, 79% of the money; Houston Rockets: 23% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Houston Rockets -6.5: 38% of bets, 47% of the money; Golden State Warriors +6.5: 62% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 220.5: 60% of bets, 60% of the money; Under 220.5: 40% of bets, 40% of the money.
Key players
- Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors): Averaging 30.6 points this season on 45.7% from three.
- Yaxel Lendeborg (Golden State Warriors): The rookie is scoring 21.4 points with a 61.3% effective field goal percentage this season.
- De'Anthony Melton (Golden State Warriors): Off the bench he is hitting 42.9% of his threes and averaging 1.5 steals this season.
- Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets): Averaging 21.3 points, 9.1 rebounds and 7.8 assists this season.
- Kevin Durant (Houston Rockets): Scoring 21.0 points a game this season with 1.4 blocks.
- Jabari Smith Jr. (Houston Rockets): Shooting 44.8% from three this season while playing 35.3 minutes a night.
Numbers that matter
| Warriors 3-point % | 40.3% | Best in the NBA, and the engine of the eight-game streak. |
|---|---|---|
| Rockets opponent 3-point % | 31.4% | Second in the league, the direct counter to Golden State's strength. |
| Rockets offensive rebound % | 31.6% | 5th in the NBA, against a Warriors defensive glass that ranks 19th, though Houston's backup centers are out. |
| Rockets first-half points allowed | 48.6 | Fewest in the league, a sign Houston controls early tempo. |
| Spread | -6 | Houston's line moved from -4.5 when our feed first saw it. |
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets: quick answers
What was the final score of Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets?
Golden State Warriors 108, Houston Rockets 115 (final). Houston Rockets covered the closing spread (Golden State Warriors +6.5). The game went over the closing total of 219.5.
Who is favored in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets?
Houston Rockets is favored by 6.5 points (Houston Rockets -6.5).
What is the over/under for Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets?
The total is 220 points.
When is Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets?
Yes: Golden State Warriors opened +5.5 and is now +6.5, and the total moved from 222.5 to 219.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Golden State Warriors: 77% of bets, 79% of the money; Houston Rockets: 23% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Houston Rockets -6.5: 38% of bets, 47% of the money; Golden State Warriors +6.5: 62% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 220.5: 60% of bets, 60% of the money; Under 220.5: 40% of bets, 40% of the money.