San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls prediction: Wembanyama's wall awaits a Bulls offense that only scores inside

Wembanyama closes the lane

The Spurs arrive at 9-2 on a nine-game winning streak, the longest in the league this season. The Bulls are 1-8, winless at home and on a seven-game slide. The gap is obvious. The question for bettors is how Chicago scores at all.

The Bulls have one dependable route. They make 55.6% of their twos, 7th of 30, and they rank 4th in free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt). San Antonio shuts both doors. Opponents make just 46.8% of their twos against the Spurs, the best mark in the league, and the Spurs rank 3rd in keeping opponents off the line.

Victor Wembanyama is the reason. He is averaging 30.1 points and 4.4 blocks a night. Monday at Phoenix he scored 40 points in 25 minutes. He added nine blocks. Rookie Caleb Wilson and Jalen Smith do much of Chicago's interior work, and they will be finishing over a 7-foot-4 shot blocker all night.

Chicago's jumper has gone missing

If the paint is closed, the Bulls need threes, and that is where their season has fallen apart. Chicago shoots 27.2% from deep, last in the league, while taking threes at the 8th-highest rate. That combination drags its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) down to 29th.

San Antonio's defense also limits volume: opponents take a smaller share of their shots from three against the Spurs than against any other team. The crack is accuracy. Opponents hit 36.7% of their threes against San Antonio, 22nd in the league. A rare hot shooting night is Chicago's clearest path to hanging around.

Extra possessions for San Antonio

The possession battle tilts the same way. The Spurs have the lowest turnover rate in the league (giveaways per 100 possessions), and Chicago ranks 24th at forcing turnovers, so the Bulls are unlikely to steal easy runouts.

The glass is worse for Chicago. The Bulls rank 29th in defensive rebounding, and San Antonio ranks 9th on the offensive boards. Second chances plus the league's top fast-break attack could turn a comfortable lead into a rout.

Who suits up

Both injury lists carry questionable tags. Devin Vassell (left groin) is questionable after missing Monday's win at Phoenix, and Julian Champagnie, shooting 43.1% from three off the bench, would absorb more minutes if he sits. Tobias Harris (left calf) was ruled out on the Nov. 10 report, though some listings still carried him as a game-time decision. Jayden Quaintance remains out after knee surgery.

For Chicago, Norman Powell is questionable after missing Sunday's loss to Philadelphia, his first absence of the season. The official report lists right shoulder inflammation, while first-year coach Tiago Splitter cited back spasms. Isaac Okoro would start in his place. Zach Collins (illness) and Tobe Awaka (back) are also questionable.

A big number and a fast pace

The Spurs opened in our feed at -14.5 and have moved to -15.5, with the total climbing from 238 to 240. Chicago plays at the league's fastest pace, while San Antonio sits 15th. Spurs games have stayed under in 8 of 11, but Chicago allows the most points per game in the league.

First halves have been San Antonio's showcase. The Spurs rank 2nd in first-half scoring, and the Bulls allow the most first-half points in the league. San Antonio led at the break in each of its last five, including 75-56 at Sacramento.

Big spreads cut both ways, though. The Spurs failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites against Dallas, winning by one, and Chicago covered as a 9.5-point underdog Sunday after rallying within a possession late. With an NBA Cup game against Golden State coming Friday, a lopsided score could hand the fourth quarter to benches.