Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction: Zion Williamson's paint assault tests a Nets team built on threes
The league's most paint-heavy offense hosts one of its most three-happy teams, and Brooklyn's turnovers could tip the scales in New Orleans.
Brooklyn Nets covered the closing spread (Brooklyn Nets +2.5). The game went over the closing total of 228.5.
- Proven wallets leaned the Over on the total (5 wallets, 71% one way): it won.
| Spread | New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 228 |
- Expect New Orleans to pound the paint and run off Brooklyn turnovers while the Nets try to win with volume threes from Porter and Traore.
- Zion Williamson against a Nets interior that allows opponents to shoot 57.3% on twos, 26th in the league.
- Pelicans are 4.5-point favorites, down from 5 when our feed first saw the game; Brooklyn is 6-4 against the spread.
Two shot charts that never overlap
This is a clash of shot diets. New Orleans scores 58.5 points in the paint per game, most in the NBA, and takes the fewest threes of any team: just 32.3% of its shots come from deep, 30th of 30. Brooklyn goes the other way. The Nets launch threes on 48.1% of their shots, 4th-most, because the inside game hasn't worked: they rank 29th in paint scoring.
The matchup favors the Pelicans' plan. Brooklyn's defense allows opponents to hit 57.3% of their twos, 26th in the league, so Williamson should find room. He is shooting 62.8% from the field, a bully-ball line built almost entirely inside the arc.
The Nets' counter lives on the perimeter, where the New Orleans defense gives up plenty of looks. Pelicans opponents take 44.3% of their shots from three, 8th-most. The bigger hole is inside, though: New Orleans ranks dead last in opponent 2-point percentage at 60.3%. Brooklyn just hasn't shown it can exploit that, shooting 51.0% on twos, 27th.
Brooklyn's giveaway problem
The Nets' offense ranks 28th in efficiency at 103.3 points per 100 possessions, and the turnovers explain a lot of it. Brooklyn coughs it up on 17.6% of its possessions, also 28th. That is a dangerous habit against a Pelicans team that ranks 3rd in steal rate and scores 18.2 fast-break points per game, 2nd in the league.
New Orleans plays fast, too, ranking 2nd in pace. Live-ball turnovers feed that tempo, and Brooklyn's own transition game is nearly absent at 29th in fast-break scoring. Brooklyn's best defensive weapon cuts the other way: the Nets force turnovers at a top-10 rate and rank 7th in defensive rebounding, which could limit the Pelicans to one shot when the paint is crowded.
Free throws add another edge for the hosts. New Orleans ranks 3rd in free throw rate and 2nd in free throw percentage at 83.3%, while Brooklyn's defense sends opponents to the line at the 27th-ranked rate.
Who's in, who's out
Williamson is expected back after sitting Monday's game at Golden State for maintenance on a back-to-back, though he still carried a game-time designation for rest on Wednesday. Trey Murphy III (knee) is probable. Yves Missi (knee) and Trendon Watford (ankle) are out, which pushes more frontcourt work toward Derik Queen. With Williamson back, Herb Jones is likely to return to the bench.
Brooklyn gets help at the point. Egor Demin is probable after missing six games with a right leg bone bruise, and he practiced fully Tuesday. Nolan Traore, who took over the starting job in Demin's absence, is questionable with right calf soreness. That matters: Traore is hitting 46.2% of his threes, the most efficient shooting on the roster. Rookie Mikel Brown Jr. is a game-time decision for rest.
What the line is saying
The Pelicans opened at -5 in our feed and have drifted to -4.5, with the move toward Brooklyn. The total sits at 229 after a first look of 229.5.
Both teams arrive bruised. New Orleans lost 138-87 at Golden State on Monday, a day after a 139-123 loss to the Clippers, and now opens a five-game home stand. Brooklyn has had three days to recover from a 130-93 loss at Dallas. The Nets have been a steadier bet than their 2-8 record suggests, covering in four of their last five as an underdog. Pelicans games have gone over the total 7 times in 11, a natural fit for a team allowing 122.4 points per game, 29th. Brooklyn's slow starts cut against that: the Nets average 52.1 first-half points, 29th.
The teams split last season's meetings, each winning at home.
Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans line movement and odds
| Book | Nets ML | Pelicans ML | Nets spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 | +2.5 (-110) | o228.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +123 | -148 | +2.5 (-108) | o228.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +120 | -142 | +2.5 (-111) | o228.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 | +2.5 (-110) | o228.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 | +2.5 (-110) | o228.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +118 | -138 | +2.5 (-110) | o228.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -145 | +2.5 (-105) | o227.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +113 | -150 | +2.5 (-118) | o228.5 (-114) |
Where the money is on Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Brooklyn Nets: 31% of bets, 18% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans: 69% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Orleans Pelicans -3.5: 57% of bets, 46% of the money; Brooklyn Nets +3.5: 43% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 51% of bets, 23% of the money; Under 228.5: 50% of bets, 77% of the money.
Key players
- Michael Porter Jr. (Brooklyn Nets): Averaging 21.5 points this season and hitting 37.2% on 94 three-point attempts, the engine of Brooklyn's perimeter plan.
- Julius Randle (Brooklyn Nets): Posting 20.0 points and 5.0 assists per game this season across 33.4 minutes a night.
- Nolan Traore (Brooklyn Nets): Shooting 46.2% from three this season, but a right calf issue leaves him questionable.
- Day'Ron Sharpe (Brooklyn Nets): Averaging 7.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks this season, he is the main body in front of Williamson.
- Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Scoring 21.0 points per game on 62.8% shooting this season, with 2.3 steals a night.
- Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 15.6 points this season and shooting 37.7% from three for a team that rarely shoots them.
- Saddiq Bey (New Orleans Pelicans): Putting up 15.5 points per game this season, mostly off the bench, and making 90.2% of his free throws.
- Jeremiah Fears (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 15.4 points and 4.9 assists this season, though he is shooting 27.3% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Pelicans paint points per game | 58.5 | Most in the NBA, aimed at a Nets defense that ranks 26th in opponent 2-point percentage. |
|---|---|---|
| Pelicans opponent 2-point % | 60.3% | Worst in the league, an opening Brooklyn's 27th-ranked 2-point offense has struggled to use. |
| Nets turnover rate | 17.6% | 28th of 30, against a Pelicans defense ranked 3rd in steal rate. |
| Nets 3-point attempt rate | 48.1% | 4th-highest, while New Orleans ranks 30th at 32.3%. |
| Spread | -4.5 | Pelicans favored, down from -5 when our feed first recorded the game. |
Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans: quick answers
What was the final score of Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Brooklyn Nets 145, New Orleans Pelicans 111 (final). Brooklyn Nets covered the closing spread (Brooklyn Nets +2.5). The game went over the closing total of 228.5.
Who is favored in Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
New Orleans Pelicans is favored by 3.5 points (New Orleans Pelicans -3.5).
What is the over/under for Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
The total is 228 points.
When is Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Yes: Brooklyn Nets opened +4.5 and is now +2.5, and the total moved from 230.5 to 228.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Brooklyn Nets: 31% of bets, 18% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans: 69% of bets, 82% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Orleans Pelicans -3.5: 57% of bets, 46% of the money; Brooklyn Nets +3.5: 43% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 51% of bets, 23% of the money; Under 228.5: 50% of bets, 77% of the money.