Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction: Ty Jerome and Memphis's shooters test Denver's porous defense
The Grizzlies make threes at the league's second-best rate, and Denver's defense ranks 23rd, which puts the 4-point road favorite's case on Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic outscoring the problem.
Denver Nuggets covered the closing spread (Denver Nuggets -3.5). The game went over the closing total of 230.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Memphis Grizzlies on the moneyline (5 wallets, 71% one way): it lost.
| Spread | Denver Nuggets -4 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 230.5 |
- Expect Memphis to fire from deep and Denver to answer through Murray and Jokic, with free throws and turnovers tilting toward the Nuggets.
- Memphis's shooters against a Denver defense allowing 112.6 points per 100 possessions, 23rd in the league.
- Denver is a 4-point road favorite and the total of 229.25 hasn't moved; Memphis is 7-3 against the spread.
Memphis has the shooting edge
Memphis has been perfect away from FedExForum and ordinary inside it. The Grizzlies are 7-3, and they still open Wednesday as home underdogs to a Denver team whose Monday loss at Houston was described as a two-man performance. The way Memphis wins this game is from three.
The Grizzlies shoot 38.7% from deep, 2nd of 30. Their best shooters are not their stars. Cedric Coward is hitting 46.8% of his threes and Jerami Grant 44.7% off the bench. Denver's defense allows 112.6 points per 100 possessions, 23rd in the league, and opponents take 44.0% of their shots from three against it.
The Nuggets don't protect the rim either. Their block rate ranks 29th, and they give up 49.6 paint points a game, 23rd. Memphis doesn't finish well inside, though: its 52.6% on twos ranks 22nd. That pushes the Grizzlies even further toward the arc.
Denver's two-man act
Murray has been the best shooter in this game. He's averaging 25.8 points and making 50.7% of his threes. Jokic adds 23.1 points and 9.1 assists a night. Monday showed both the ceiling and the problem. Murray scored 38 and Jokic posted 25 points and 16 rebounds, but Gordon, Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson combined for just 15 points in a 110-100 loss.
The supporting cast has been cold all season. Aaron Gordon is shooting 39.5% from the field, and DeMar DeRozan's effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) sits at 42.0 off the bench. Denver still ranks 9th in offensive efficiency, so the offense works. It just runs through two players.
Where Denver gains possessions
The quieter edges belong to the Nuggets. Memphis turns the ball over on 16.2% of its possessions, 22nd in the league. Denver's steal rate ranks 6th. Denver also takes care of the ball, with the 7th-best turnover rate.
The free throw line tilts the same way. Denver ranks 6th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), and its defense sends opponents to the line less than any team in the league. Memphis is 25th at getting there, which hurts, because it makes 84.8% of its free throws, best in the NBA.
Memphis's counter is the glass. Its offensive rebound rate ranks 10th, and Denver is 24th on the defensive boards.
A thin Memphis frontcourt
That rebounding edge is less certain with Memphis short on bodies. Quinten Post is out with a concussion, and Isaiah Stewart is questionable after missing two games with a bone bruise in his right knee. Scotty Pippen Jr. is out with a back injury, and Richie Saunders is out after knee surgery. Rookie Cameron Boozer carries a big load, averaging 16.4 points and 9.7 rebounds, though he is shooting 37.1% from the field.
Denver's only listed absence is Julian Strawther, out with a knee sprain. Both teams played Monday, and neither is on a back-to-back.
What the market believes
The line has held at Denver -4 with the total at 229.25 since our feed first saw it, and the Grizzlies are +145 on the moneyline. The market is siding with the Nuggets despite the gap in the season numbers. Memphis's net efficiency is 6.9 points per 100 possessions, 9th of 30. Denver's is 0.8, 17th.
The Grizzlies are 2-3 at home and 5-0 on the road, a franchise-record road start. Denver won three of four meetings last season, including 125-115 in Memphis.
- Watch: whether Coward and Grant get clean looks early
- Watch: Stewart's status and the battle on the offensive glass
- Watch: whether anyone besides Murray and Jokic scores for Denver
Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies line movement and odds
| Book | Nuggets ML | Grizzlies ML | Nuggets spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 | -3.5 (-115) | o230.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | -162 | +133 | -3.5 (-114) | o231.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | -161 | +136 | -3.5 (-115) | o230.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | -165 | +140 | -3.5 (-115) | o230.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 | -3.5 (-115) | o231 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -166 | +140 | -3.5 (-115) | o230.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -175 | +145 | -4.5 (+100) | o230.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 | -3.5 (-115) | o231 (-110) |
Where the money is on Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies
On the Kalshi moneyline: Denver Nuggets: 56% of bets, 59% of the money; Memphis Grizzlies: 44% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Denver Nuggets -3.5: 59% of bets, 64% of the money; Memphis Grizzlies +3.5: 41% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 230.5: 47% of bets, 55% of the money; Under 230.5: 53% of bets, 45% of the money.
Key players
- Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Averaging 25.8 points this season on 50.7% from three, and scored 38 Monday at Houston.
- Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): Putting up 23.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game this season.
- Aaron Gordon (Denver Nuggets): Shooting 39.5% from the field and 27.8% from three this season.
- Ty Jerome (Memphis Grizzlies): Averaging 26.7 points on 37.9% from three this season, with 27 in Monday's win at Toronto.
- Cameron Boozer (Memphis Grizzlies): The No. 3 pick averages 16.4 points and 9.7 rebounds but shoots 37.1% from the field.
- Cedric Coward (Memphis Grizzlies): Hitting 46.8% of his threes this season while pulling down 8.4 rebounds a game.
Numbers that matter
| Memphis 3-point % | 38.7% | 2nd in the league, against a Denver defense that lets opponents take 44.0% of their shots from three. |
|---|---|---|
| Denver defensive efficiency | 112.6 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 23rd of 30. |
| Memphis turnover rate | 16.2% | 22nd in the league, facing a Denver team with the 6th-best steal rate. |
| Murray from three | 50.7% | Denver's most dangerous shooter through nine games. |
| Spread | -4 | Denver is favored on the road and the line hasn't moved since our feed first saw it. |
Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies: quick answers
What was the final score of Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Denver Nuggets 123, Memphis Grizzlies 118 (final). Denver Nuggets covered the closing spread (Denver Nuggets -3.5). The game went over the closing total of 230.5.
Who is favored in Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Denver Nuggets is favored by 4 points (Denver Nuggets -4).
What is the over/under for Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies?
The total is 230.5 points.
When is Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Yes: Denver Nuggets opened -4.5 and is now -3.5, and the total moved from 228.5 to 230.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Denver Nuggets: 56% of bets, 59% of the money; Memphis Grizzlies: 44% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Denver Nuggets -3.5: 59% of bets, 64% of the money; Memphis Grizzlies +3.5: 41% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 230.5: 47% of bets, 55% of the money; Under 230.5: 53% of bets, 45% of the money.