Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors prediction: Short-handed Raptors need stolen possessions to keep pace with Paul George's Celtics
Without Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard, Toronto's best route against the league's top net-rated team runs through steals and second chances, against a Boston team playing its second game in two nights.
Boston Celtics covered the closing spread (Boston Celtics -4.5). The game went under the closing total of 215.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Boston Celtics on the moneyline (8 wallets, 67% one way): it won.
| Spread | Boston Celtics -5.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 216 |
- Boston's shooting should control a slow game unless Toronto, without Barnes and Leonard, turns steals and offensive rebounds into enough extra shots.
- Toronto's league-best 19.3% forced turnover rate against a Celtics offense that ranks 11th in turnover rate, on tired legs.
- The line has moved from Boston -7.5 to Boston -5.5 with a 215.5 total; the Celtics have gone under in 8 of 11.
Where Toronto can steal possessions
The Raptors can't match Boston shot for shot, so they have to get more of them. That is the one area where Toronto's profile is elite. The Raptors force turnovers on 19.3% of opponent possessions, 1st of 30, and their steal rate also ranks 1st in the league.
Boston protects the ball reasonably well, ranking 11th in turnover rate, but this is the spot where a back-to-back shows up. The Celtics played in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, and sloppy passes from heavy legs are exactly what Toronto feeds on.
The glass offers a second door. Toronto grabs 32.5% of its own misses, 2nd in the league, while Boston ranks 25th in defensive rebound percentage. The catch: Barnes, who averages 2.2 steals, is the engine of that chaos, and he is out again.
Boston's threes, Toronto's paint
Boston's offense is built from the arc. The Celtics take 47.6% of their shots from three, 5th-most in the league, and make 38.4% of them, 3rd-best. Toronto's perimeter defense ranks 21st in opponent three-point percentage, and its opponent effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times) ranks 24th.
Paul George has carried that attack since arriving in the offseason trade that sent Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia. He is shooting 44.0% from three and dropped 36 points on the 76ers on Tuesday. Sam Hauser adds 43.1% off the bench.
Toronto lives the other way. The Raptors score 52.0 paint points per game, 4th in the league, but Boston allows the fewest paint points in the NBA at 36.0. Toronto can't easily swing to the arc instead: it shoots 31.8% from three, 27th of 30.
Who is left for Toronto
Barnes will miss a third straight game with a left groin strain, and the team has given no return timeline. Leonard, who has played only two games, will miss at least another week with left knee swelling. Nate Bittle has yet to debut after a foot fracture.
The question marks pile up behind them. Immanuel Quickley, who averages 17.4 points, is questionable with a right hamstring issue after missing the last two games. Collin Murray-Boyles is questionable with an illness and is expected to start in Barnes' place if cleared. Trayce Jackson-Davis is also questionable with an illness, though he played through one Monday.
That leaves RJ Barrett as the primary scorer at 21.3 points, with Ja'Kobe Walter absorbing extra ballhandling. Toronto has used six starting lineups in 10 games, and it lost 118-102 at home to Memphis on Monday in a game it trailed throughout. A trip to Philadelphia follows Thursday.
Slow tempo, tired legs, a low total
Boston plays at the 28th-fastest pace in the league; Toronto ranks 7th. Expect the Celtics to drag this into the half court, where their defense, 6th in efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), does its best work.
That style explains the market. The total sits at 215.5, and Boston's games have gone under in 8 of 11. One wrinkle: Toronto's defense fouls a lot, ranking 29th in opponent free throw rate, which could add points if Boston attacks the basket more than usual.
Boston is favored by 5.5, and the line has moved from 7.5 to 5.5 since our feed first recorded it, a shift toward Toronto. The Celtics swept all four meetings last season and have won nine of the last 10 overall. Their fatigue, after eight games in 13 days, is the main reason the gap isn't wider.
Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors line movement and odds
| Book | Celtics ML | Raptors ML | Celtics spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -200 | +165 | -4.5 (-115) | o215.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -210 | +170 | -4.5 (-117) | o215.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | -197 | +165 | -4.5 (-115) | o215.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -195 | +165 | -4.5 (-115) | o215.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -200 | +165 | -4.5 (-115) | o215.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | -198 | +166 | -4.5 (-115) | o216.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -210 | +170 | -5.5 (-105) | o215.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -190 | +158 | -4.5 (-105) | o215.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors
On the Kalshi moneyline: Boston Celtics: 86% of bets, 87% of the money; Toronto Raptors: 14% of bets, 13% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Boston Celtics -5.5: 68% of bets, 72% of the money; Toronto Raptors +5.5: 32% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 216.5: 59% of bets, 56% of the money; Under 216.5: 41% of bets, 44% of the money.
Key players
- Paul George (Boston Celtics): In his first season in Boston he averages 22.0 points on 44.0% three-point shooting.
- Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics): Averages 26.5 points and 7.4 assists this season, though he is shooting 32.4% from three.
- Payton Pritchard (Boston Celtics): Scores 13.3 points per game off the bench this season without a start.
- RJ Barrett (Toronto Raptors): Averages 21.3 points this season but is hitting 27.8% from three and 61.3% at the line.
- Immanuel Quickley (Toronto Raptors): Averages 17.4 points and 5.8 assists this season and is questionable with a hamstring issue.
- Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors): Averages 11.0 points in 29.6 minutes this season and takes on extra ballhandling with Barnes out.
Numbers that matter
| Toronto forced turnover rate | 19.3% | Best in the league, and Toronto's clearest path to extra shots against a tired Boston team. |
|---|---|---|
| Boston 3-point percentage | 38.4% | 3rd of 30, against a Raptors defense that ranks 21st in opponent three-point percentage. |
| Boston opponent paint points | 36.0 | Fewest in the NBA, which blunts a Toronto offense that ranks 4th in paint scoring. |
| Boston over/under record | 3-8 | The Celtics' slow pace has produced unders in 8 of 11 games, with tonight's total at 216. |
| Spread | -7.5 | Boston's number has not moved since our feed first recorded the line. |
Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors: quick answers
What was the final score of Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors?
Boston Celtics 98, Toronto Raptors 93 (final). Boston Celtics covered the closing spread (Boston Celtics -4.5). The game went under the closing total of 215.5.
Who is favored in Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors?
Boston Celtics is favored by 5.5 points (Boston Celtics -5.5).
What is the over/under for Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors?
The total is 216 points.
When is Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors?
Yes: Boston Celtics opened -6.5 and is now -4.5, and the total moved from 216.5 to 215.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Boston Celtics: 86% of bets, 87% of the money; Toronto Raptors: 14% of bets, 13% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Boston Celtics -5.5: 68% of bets, 72% of the money; Toronto Raptors +5.5: 32% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 216.5: 59% of bets, 56% of the money; Under 216.5: 41% of bets, 44% of the money.