Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers prediction: Anthony Davis returns to face a Pacers team still winless at home
Washington can barely make a three, so its night runs through Davis in the paint against an Indiana team that wins inside but has yet to win in Indianapolis.
Indiana Pacers covered the closing spread (Washington Wizards +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 227.5.
| Spread | Indiana Pacers -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 227.5 |
- A grinding, inside-out game: both offenses rank in the bottom third in efficiency and both live on two-point shots more than threes.
- Anthony Davis, fresh off 44 points against Detroit, against an Indiana frontcourt that ranks 23rd in block rate.
- Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite, down from 4.5 when our feed first saw it, with the Pacers 0-4 at home.
Davis carries a broken jump shot
Two franchises that combined for fewer than 40 wins last season are both looking up again in November. Indiana is 3-8 and has yet to win at home. Washington is 4-7 and has lost four straight. Somebody's slide stops Wednesday night, and the Wizards' best case is a big night from Anthony Davis.
Davis returned Monday from a two-game absence with a right ankle sprain and scored 44 in a loss at Detroit. He isn't on Wednesday's injury lists. Through nine games he averages 25.7 points on 53.0% shooting, and he is the reason Washington's offense works at all inside the arc. The Wizards rank 8th in 2-point percentage at 55.5% and 6th in paint scoring.
The outside shot is another matter. Washington makes 29.6% of its threes, 29th in the league, and Trae Young is shooting 28.8% from deep. The Wizards also rank 28th in 3-point attempt rate, so they already know it. Indiana's interior offers an opening: the Pacers rank 23rd in block rate, the share of opponent two-point tries they swat.
Indiana's offense lives inside too
With Tyrese Haliburton out with a left hamstring strain and no return timetable, Andrew Nembhard runs the offense. He averages 7.7 assists and hits 41.2% of his threes. Pascal Siakam does the heavy scoring at 22.2 points a game, with a 57.4% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times). He put up 26 of his 29 points in the first half Monday against Dallas.
The Pacers make 57.1% of their twos, 3rd in the league, and they should find room. Washington allows 50.4 paint points a game, 25th of 30. The perimeter is tougher: the Wizards hold opponents to 31.2% from three, best in the league, and Indiana shoots just 33.5%, 24th. Washington also rarely fouls, with the 2nd-lowest opponent free throw rate, so the Pacers will have to earn this one from the field. T.J. McConnell, a key backup guard, is questionable with a strained right hamstring.
Nobody owns the glass
Neither team cleans up its own misses. Indiana ranks 30th in offensive rebound rate, the share of its own misses it recovers, at 19.7%. Washington is 27th. On the other end, the Wizards rank 26th in defensive rebounding, which gives Indiana's weak crash game a rare opening. Watch whether Alex Sarr, at 7.2 rebounds a game, can keep the Pacers off second chances.
Transition tilts toward Indiana. The Pacers score 16.2 fast-break points a game (10th), while Washington ranks 25th. Washington is also thin: Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic, Justin Champagnie and Jamir Watkins are all out.
What the line is saying
Indiana opened at -4.5 in our feed and has drifted to -3.5, with the money moving toward Washington. The total sits at 226.5, barely changed from 227. Unders have been the habit here: Washington is 3-8 to the over and Indiana is 4-7. Both defenses do bend early, though. The Pacers allow 60.2 first-half points (27th) and the Wizards 59.5 (25th).
Washington won three of four against Indiana last season, including a 108-89 win in Indianapolis. Against the spread, the Pacers are 6-5 and the Wizards 5-6.
What to watch
- Davis's ankle after a 44-point night and two days' rest.
- Whether Indiana's 2-point shooting beats Washington's soft paint defense.
- McConnell's status and how much Quenton Jackson absorbs in the backcourt.
- Second-chance points between two of the league's weakest rebounding teams.
Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers line movement and odds
| Book | Wizards ML | Pacers ML | Wizards spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +130 | -165 | +3.5 (-110) | o227.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +135 | -175 | +3.5 (-110) | o227.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +130 | -154 | +3.5 (-116) | o227.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -160 | +3.5 (-115) | o227.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +130 | -170 | +3.5 (-115) | o227.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +124 | -158 | +2.5 (-106) | o227.5 (+102) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -165 | +3.5 (-115) | o226.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +135 | -170 | +3.5 (-115) | o229.5 (-115) |
Where the money is on Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Washington Wizards: 69% of bets, 72% of the money; Indiana Pacers: 31% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Indiana Pacers -3.5: 37% of bets, 30% of the money; Washington Wizards +3.5: 63% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 30% of bets, 84% of the money; Under 228.5: 70% of bets, 16% of the money.
Key players
- Anthony Davis (Washington Wizards): Averages 25.7 points and 9.7 rebounds this season and scored 44 on Monday in his return from an ankle sprain.
- Trae Young (Washington Wizards): Dishes 8.7 assists a game this season but is shooting 39.3% from the field.
- Kyshawn George (Washington Wizards): The Wizards' most efficient high-minute scorer this season, with a 56.7% effective field goal percentage.
- AJ Dybantsa (Washington Wizards): Averages 16.7 points across seven games since returning from a preseason ankle sprain.
- Pascal Siakam (Indiana Pacers): Averages 22.2 points this season on 52.1% shooting.
- Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers): Runs the offense with 7.7 assists a game and is hitting 41.2% from three this season.
- Quenton Jackson (Indiana Pacers): Gives 10.0 points a game off the bench and shoots 90.9% at the line this season.
- Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers): Scores 12.8 points a game this season but is shooting 32.1% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Wizards 3-point % | 29.6% | Ranks 29th, which pushes Washington's offense toward Davis and the paint. |
|---|---|---|
| Wizards opponent paint points | 50.4 | Ranks 25th, an opening for an Indiana team that ranks 3rd in 2-point percentage. |
| Pacers offensive rebound rate | 19.7% | Last in the league, against a Washington defense that ranks 26th on the defensive glass. |
| Pacers home record | 0-4 | Indiana is still looking for its first win in Indianapolis this season. |
| Current spread | -3.5 | Indiana is favored, down from -4.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers: quick answers
What was the final score of Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers?
Washington Wizards 101, Indiana Pacers 114 (final). Indiana Pacers covered the closing spread (Washington Wizards +3.5). The game went under the closing total of 227.5.
Who is favored in Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers?
Indiana Pacers is favored by 3 points (Indiana Pacers -3).
What is the over/under for Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers?
The total is 227.5 points.
When is Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers?
Yes: Washington Wizards opened +4.5 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 228.5 to 227.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Washington Wizards: 69% of bets, 72% of the money; Indiana Pacers: 31% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Indiana Pacers -3.5: 37% of bets, 30% of the money; Washington Wizards +3.5: 63% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 30% of bets, 84% of the money; Under 228.5: 70% of bets, 16% of the money.