Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks prediction: Knicks own the glass, and Cavaliers need Jarrett Allen to fight back
Four nights after New York won 109-97 in Cleveland, the league's best rebounding team gets another crack at a Cavs frontcourt that may be short a center.
Cleveland Cavaliers covered the closing spread (Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5). The game went over the closing total of 221.5.
| Spread | New York Knicks -5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 221.5 |
- Expect a grinding, possession-by-possession game: New York's defense and rebounding against Cleveland's quicker tempo and heavier three-point volume.
- Karl-Anthony Towns on the boards against whoever plays center for Cleveland, with Jarrett Allen's knee status unknown at last check.
- Knicks -4.5 and a 221.5 total, unchanged from our first look; New York has gone under in 8 of 10 games.
The glass decides it
Last spring the Knicks swept Cleveland out of the Eastern Conference Finals. Four nights ago they won again in Cleveland, leading 63-53 at the half and cruising home 109-97. The clearest reason they keep winning this matchup is the rebounding.
New York grabs 33.2% of its own misses, 1st in the league, and secures 77.9% of opponents' misses, also 1st. Cleveland's offensive rebound rate sits 25th. When neither defense forces turnovers (the Knicks rank 28th in forced turnover rate, the Cavs 29th), extra shots off the glass are the main way to win the possession battle, and that edge belongs to New York.
Towns is the engine, averaging 13.8 rebounds. Cleveland's answer depends on Jarrett Allen, who bruised his right knee in a knee-to-knee collision Nov. 4 against Oklahoma City. He was questionable for Monday's game at Charlotte, and his status for tonight had not been reported. If he sits, Evan Mobley slides to center and Thomas Bryant and Mario Hezonja take on bigger roles. That is a thinner front line to throw at the league's best rebounding team.
Where the Knicks' offense stalls
New York's defense carries this team: it allows 103.7 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the league, and a league-best 102.3 points per game. The offense is another story. The Knicks make 48.9% of their twos, dead last of 30, and rank 28th in paint scoring.
That plays into Cleveland's strength. The Cavs hold opponents to 50.8% inside the arc, 5th in the league. New York leans on Jalen Brunson, who averages 25.9 points and was named East Player of the Week after posting 27.7 points in three wins. His shooting is less tidy than the scoring suggests, with an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 48.3%.
The efficient help comes from Towns and Landry Shamet, who is hitting 41.5% from three and starts again if Josh Hart sits. Mikal Bridges has been a drag, shooting 26.5% from deep.
Cleveland's threes against an open invitation
The Cavs can shoot their way into this. Their effective field goal percentage of 54.9% ranks 9th, and threes make up 46.7% of their shot attempts, 7th most. New York gives up the third-highest share of threes in the league, though opponents are converting only 33.7%.
Donovan Mitchell is the pressure point at 22.8 points on 38.5% from deep, and Mobley has made half of his 46 attempts. James Harden, brought back after the playoff sweep, is shooting 36.4% from the field. Cleveland also protects the ball, with a turnover rate 4th lowest in the league, so the game should hinge on shot-making and rebounds rather than steals.
Tempo, fatigue and the line
The styles pull in opposite directions. Cleveland plays at 103.6 possessions per game, 8th fastest; New York's 98.6 ranks 29th. The Knicks are also on the second night of a back-to-back after Tuesday's 117-85 rout of Milwaukee, while the Cavs had two days off after a loss at Charlotte that extended their losing streak to two games.
Availability is unsettled on both sides. Illness kept Hart out Tuesday, and he is listed out tonight on at least one report, though the Knicks hadn't filed an official report at last check. For Cleveland, Sam Merrill (elbow) and Nae'Qwan Tomlin (back) are out, and Jaylon Tyson (ankle) was questionable after missing six straight games.
The market hasn't budged: Knicks -4.5 and 221.5, the same numbers our feed first saw. Cleveland is 3-8 against the spread and 1-4 on the road. The Cavs did beat New York 109-94 at home in February.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks line movement and odds
| Book | Cavaliers ML | Knicks ML | Cavaliers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 | +4.5 (+100) | o221.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +165 | -200 | +4.5 (-108) | o220.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +180 | -217 | +4.5 (-106) | o220.5 (-113) |
| ESPN BET | +190 | -225 | +5.5 (-115) | o220.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 | +5 (-110) | o221 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +166 | -198 | +4.5 (-105) | o221.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +175 | -220 | +4.5 (+100) | o221.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +162 | -195 | +5 (-110) | o221.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cleveland Cavaliers: 30% of bets, 38% of the money; New York Knicks: 70% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Knicks -4.5: 62% of bets, 43% of the money; Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5: 38% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 221.5: 70% of bets, 40% of the money; Under 221.5: 30% of bets, 60% of the money.
Key players
- Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers): Averaging 22.8 points on 38.5% three-point shooting this season.
- Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers): Posting a 64.7% effective field goal percentage with 7.5 rebounds per game this season.
- James Harden (Cleveland Cavaliers): Averaging 5.7 assists this season but shooting 36.4% from the field.
- Jarrett Allen (Cleveland Cavaliers): Shooting 64.8% with 7.7 rebounds in 24.4 minutes this season while nursing a knee contusion.
- Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks): Averaging 25.9 points and 5.2 assists this season.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (New York Knicks): Averaging 20.9 points and 13.8 rebounds on a 61.2% effective field goal percentage this season.
- OG Anunoby (New York Knicks): Averaging 16.7 points this season, though shooting 39.2% from the field.
- Landry Shamet (New York Knicks): Hitting 41.5% of his threes this season in 25.6 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| Knicks offensive rebound rate | 33.2% | Best in the league, against a Cleveland team that ranks 25th on the offensive glass. |
|---|---|---|
| Knicks 2-point percentage | 48.9% | Last of 30, facing a Cavs defense that ranks 5th in opponent 2-point percentage. |
| Knicks opponent 3-point attempt rate | 48.2% | Third highest allowed, an opening for a Cavs team that ranks 7th in three-point attempt rate. |
| Knicks pace | 98.6 | 29th in possessions per game, against a Cleveland team playing at the 8th-fastest tempo. |
| Spread | -4.5 | New York's number has not moved since our feed first recorded the game. |
Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks: quick answers
What was the final score of Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks?
Cleveland Cavaliers 115, New York Knicks 107 (final). Cleveland Cavaliers covered the closing spread (Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5). The game went over the closing total of 221.5.
Who is favored in Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks?
New York Knicks is favored by 5 points (New York Knicks -5).
What is the over/under for Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks?
The total is 221.5 points.
When is Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks?
No: Cleveland Cavaliers has stayed at +4.5, and the total is still 221.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Cleveland Cavaliers: 30% of bets, 38% of the money; New York Knicks: 70% of bets, 62% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Knicks -4.5: 62% of bets, 43% of the money; Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5: 38% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 221.5: 70% of bets, 40% of the money; Under 221.5: 30% of bets, 60% of the money.