Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators prediction: Linus Ullmark's expected return gives Ottawa its best weapon against Washington
The Senators went 4-3-1 without their top goalie, and he now faces a Capitals attack that scores often but also gives up plenty.
Ottawa Senators covered the closing puck line (Washington Capitals -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
| Line | Washington Capitals -113 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Ottawa's stingy starts and a healthy Ullmark point to a tighter game than Washington's scoring suggests, unless the Capitals' finishers stay hot.
- Ullmark's .945 save percentage will be tested by a Washington offense scoring 3.53 goals per game, eighth in the league.
- Washington is -113 on the road and the favorite, and the puck line has flipped: Ottawa was -1.5 at home and is now +1.5, with the total at 6.5. Ottawa's games have stayed under 11 times in 18.
Ullmark back in the crease
Ottawa has spent eight games waiting for Linus Ullmark. The Senators went 4-3-1 without him. On Tuesday night he is expected to return against a Washington team that scores in bunches and gives up almost as many.
Ullmark came off injured reserve Sunday and practiced Monday, and Travis Green said over the weekend he was hopeful his goalie would be ready. The team hasn't confirmed it, so treat him as the probable starter, not a certainty. When he has played, he has been the best part of Ottawa's season, with a .945 save percentage and a 1.33 goals-against average. Samuel Ersson, who carried the load in his absence, sits at .889.
Logan Thompson is expected to start for Washington after making 27 saves in Saturday's win over Florida. The Capitals' problem is behind him as much as in front of him: their team save percentage ranks 24th of 32. If Ullmark looks like himself, that is the clearest goaltending edge on the board.
Ottawa draws penalties, wastes them
Ottawa's power play has been a dead spot all season. It converts 13.0% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 31st in the league. Yet the Senators keep earning chances, drawing 3.83 power plays per game, second-most in the NHL.
Washington's penalty kill won't scare anyone at 76.5%, so this is a spot where Ottawa's numbers could turn. The risk runs the other way too. The Senators take a lot of penalties and their own kill ranks 22nd. Washington doesn't draw many calls, though, so the volume of power plays should favor Ottawa.
Tuch's finishing, Stutzle's engine
Tuch's finishing, Stutzle's engine Alex Tuch has 11 goals, and he has scored on 26.2% of his shots. Conversion like that rarely lasts, but it has powered a top line with Dylan Strome and Jordan Kyrou. The quieter story is Alex Ovechkin, who has gone 10 games without a goal. He needs one assist to tie Nicklas Backstrom's franchise record of 762.
Tim Stutzle drives Ottawa with 23 points. He centered Mika Zetterlund and Dylan Cozens at Monday's practice, while Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson anchor a second line that gives the Senators balance Washington's depth hasn't matched.
Who's in, who's out
Ridly Greig skated Monday and expects to play after missing two games. Tyler Kleven was listed as day-to-day with an illness last week but took part in Monday's practice pairings, so his status is unsettled. Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund remain on injured reserve.
For Washington, Rasmus Sandin practiced fully Monday and is traveling with the team, but he isn't expected to play Tuesday. Vincent Desharnais skated Monday and remains on injured reserve. Tom Wilson was ejected for boarding Saturday, but no hearing or suspension has been reported, and he is projected to skate on the second line. Justin Holl was recalled from Hershey.
Where the total is drifting
Where the total sits Washington is -113 on the moneyline and Ottawa -105. The line has moved from Ottawa -1.5 to Ottawa +1.5, with Washington now the favorite, while the total is 6.5, unchanged from when our feed first saw the game. The split in styles still matters here. Washington's games are 10-5 to the over this season, while Ottawa grinds games down.
The first period shows the gap most clearly. Ottawa allows 0.61 first-period goals per game, second-best in the league. Washington allows 1.27, 29th. Fifteen to eighteen games is still a small sample, but a slow start favors the team with the returning goalie.
Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators line movement and odds
| Book | Capitals ML | Senators ML | Capitals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (-105) |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+220) | o6.5 (-102) |
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+215) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+190) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | -110 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -121 | -102 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (-104) |
Where the money is on Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators
On the Kalshi moneyline: Washington Capitals: 56% of bets, 72% of the money; Ottawa Senators: 44% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Washington Capitals -1.5: 77% of bets, 62% of the money; Ottawa Senators +1.5: 23% of bets, 38% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 74% of bets, 73% of the money; Under 6.5: 26% of bets, 27% of the money.
Key players
- Alex Tuch (Washington Capitals): Has 11 goals this season on a 26.2% shooting rate.
- Dylan Strome (Washington Capitals): Leads Washington with 11 assists among his 14 points this season.
- Logan Thompson (Washington Capitals): Carries an .889 save percentage and 3.2 goals-against average in 11 games this season.
- Linus Ullmark (Ottawa Senators): Posted a .945 save percentage and 1.33 goals-against average in eight games before his injury.
- Tim Stutzle (Ottawa Senators): Leads Ottawa with 23 points in 18 games this season.
- Drake Batherson (Ottawa Senators): Has nine goals and 18 points this season.
Numbers that matter
| Ullmark save percentage | .945 | Ottawa's probable starter returns after missing eight games, with the best numbers on either roster. |
|---|---|---|
| Washington team save % | 24th | The Capitals' goaltending has been a weak spot behind a strong offense. |
| Ottawa power plays drawn | 3.83 | Second-most in the NHL, but Ottawa's 13.0% conversion ranks 31st. |
| Ottawa first-period goals allowed | 0.61 | Second in the league, while Washington allows 1.27, 29th. |
| Total | 6.0 | Down from 6.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators: quick answers
What was the final score of Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators?
Washington Capitals 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (final). Ottawa Senators covered the closing puck line (Washington Capitals -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators?
Yes: Washington Capitals opened +1.5 and is now -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Washington Capitals: 56% of bets, 72% of the money; Ottawa Senators: 44% of bets, 28% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Washington Capitals -1.5: 77% of bets, 62% of the money; Ottawa Senators +1.5: 23% of bets, 38% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 74% of bets, 73% of the money; Under 6.5: 26% of bets, 27% of the money.