Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets prediction: Penalty-prone Panthers dare Columbus's weak power play to punish them
Florida spends more time shorthanded than any team in the league, but the Blue Jackets' 27th-ranked power play has to beat one of the NHL's best penalty kills to cash in.
Florida Panthers covered the closing puck line (Florida Panthers -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 5.5.
| Line | Florida Panthers -125 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Florida should control the puck and the shot count; Columbus needs Talbot sharp and Nationwide Arena, where it is 6-3-0, to keep it close.
- Columbus's power play, 27th in the league, gets its chances against a Florida team that is shorthanded more than anyone but kills penalties well.
- Florida is a narrow -116 road favorite, and the total has climbed from 5.5 to 6.0 since our feed first posted it.
The penalty box decides it
No team hands out more power plays than Florida. The Panthers are shorthanded 4.28 times per game, 32nd of 32, and the same edge that makes them dangerous keeps putting them in the box. Brady Tkachuk alone has 44 penalty minutes.
The twist is that it rarely costs them. Florida's penalty kill (the share of opposing power plays it survives without allowing a goal) sits at 85.7%, 6th in the league. And the Panthers draw 4.5 power plays per game, the most in the NHL, so they usually get those minutes back.
That puts the pressure on Columbus. The Blue Jackets convert just 17.5% of their power plays, 27th in the league, and they rarely draw penalties of their own. They are also disciplined, so Florida may not get as many chances as usual. If Columbus can't turn a parade of power plays into goals, the Panthers' style costs them nothing.
Talbot's form versus Florida's volume
Cam Talbot is the probable starter for Columbus, though the team hasn't confirmed it. He has been the better of its two goalies with a .909 save percentage. Jet Greaves, who started Friday at Buffalo, is at .880.
Jacob Markstrom is expected to start for Florida, also unconfirmed, after returning from an upper-body injury in October. His .886 mark is ordinary, and Florida's team save percentage ranks 22nd.
The gap between the teams shows up at the other end. Florida owns a 54.0% shot share (its share of all shots on goal in its games), 5th in the league, while Columbus is 23rd. A goalie who keeps the volume from turning into goals is Columbus's clearest path.
Florida's stars cover for missing captains
Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand are on injured reserve with knee injuries, and neither is expected back before the second half of November. Sandis Vilmanis is out, and Anton Lundell was day-to-day as of Nov. 7 after missing Saturday's game at Washington. His status for Tuesday is unclear.
Matthew Tkachuk has carried the playmaking with 22 assists. Brady Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe have 10 goals apiece, and Verhaeghe's finishing rate looks hard to sustain.
Columbus has far less scoring punch, ranking 29th in goals per game. Kent Johnson leads the team with 16 points, and Zach Werenski logs huge minutes on the back end.
History, schedule and home ice
The Panthers have owned this matchup, going 9-1-0 in their last 10 against Columbus. The most recent meeting came in Columbus on Oct. 13, a 7-3 Florida win in which Brady Tkachuk scored a natural hat trick.
Columbus is a different team at home, though, at 6-3-0 compared with a poor road record. Florida arrives having lost both ends of last weekend's back-to-back at Washington and Boston. Columbus has had the longer break.
What the market says
Books have this close. Florida is a -116 favorite and Columbus is -102 at home, with the Blue Jackets getting +1.5 on the puck line. The line has moved toward Florida since our feed first saw it, and the total rose from 5.5 to 6.0.
- Whether Columbus's power play does anything with Florida's penalties
- Talbot's early saves against the Panthers' shot volume
- Lundell's status and how Florida covers for its injuries at center
Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets line movement and odds
| Book | Panthers ML | Jackets ML | Panthers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | -105 | -1.5 (+185) | o5.5 (-140) |
| DraftKings | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (+210) | o5.5 (-135) |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (+210) | o5.5 (-135) |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (+200) | o5.5 (-135) |
| FanDuel | -130 | +108 | -1.5 (+194) | o5.5 (-134) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -125 | -105 | -1.5 (+200) | o5.5 (-130) |
| Caesars | -121 | +103 | -1.5 (+205) | o6 (-109) |
Where the money is on Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets
On the Kalshi moneyline: Florida Panthers: 78% of bets, 74% of the money; Columbus Blue Jackets: 22% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida Panthers -1.5: 77% of bets, 90% of the money; Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5: 23% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 5.5: 82% of bets, 82% of the money; Under 5.5: 18% of bets, 18% of the money.
Key players
- Matthew Tkachuk (Florida Panthers): He leads Florida with 26 points this season, 22 of them assists.
- Brady Tkachuk (Florida Panthers): He has 10 goals on 67 shots this season and scored a natural hat trick in Columbus on Oct. 13.
- Carter Verhaeghe (Florida Panthers): He has 10 goals this season on a 26.3% shooting rate.
- Jacob Markstrom (Florida Panthers): He carries an .886 save percentage and a 2.74 goals-against average across nine games this season.
- Cam Talbot (Columbus Blue Jackets): He has a .909 save percentage and a 2.44 goals-against average this season.
- Kent Johnson (Columbus Blue Jackets): He leads Columbus with 16 points, including 8 goals, this season.
- Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets): He plays 28.3 minutes a night and has 12 assists this season.
Numbers that matter
| Florida times shorthanded per game | 4.28 | That ranks 32nd of 32, so Columbus should get plenty of power plays. |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus power play | 17.5% | It ranks 27th, and it faces a Florida penalty kill ranked 6th. |
| Florida shot share | 54.0% | At 5th in the league, Florida's shot volume will test Talbot. |
| Florida moneyline | -116 | A narrow road favorite in a matchup Florida has dominated recently. |
Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets: quick answers
What was the final score of Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
Florida Panthers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (final). Florida Panthers covered the closing puck line (Florida Panthers -1.5). The game went under the closing total of 5.5.
What is the over/under for Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
Yes: Florida Panthers opened +1.5 and is now -1.5, and the total moved from 6.5 to 5.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Florida Panthers: 78% of bets, 74% of the money; Columbus Blue Jackets: 22% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida Panthers -1.5: 77% of bets, 90% of the money; Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5: 23% of bets, 10% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 5.5: 82% of bets, 82% of the money; Under 5.5: 18% of bets, 18% of the money.