Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: Avalanche's top-three attack tests Bobrovsky and a battered Maple Leafs roster
Colorado arrives with one of the league's most dangerous offenses, while Toronto leans on elite special teams to stop a three-game slide.
Colorado Avalanche covered the closing puck line (Colorado Avalanche -1.5). The game went over the closing total of 6.5.
- Proven wallets leaned Toronto Maple Leafs on the moneyline (9 wallets, 75% one way): it lost.
| Line | Colorado Avalanche -175 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Colorado should own more of the puck; Toronto's best path is winning the special-teams battle and getting a big night in goal.
- Watch Bobrovsky, the probable starter at an 88.6% save rate, against an Avalanche offense ranked 3rd in goals per game.
- Colorado is a -154 road favorite with the total at 6.5; the Avalanche have gone over in 12 of 18 games.
Firepower against a soft crease
The Avalanche score 4.0 goals per game, 3rd of 32, and they get there by volume. They also rank 3rd in shots on goal, putting up 30.4 a night. That is a bad fit for a Toronto team that allows 29.6 shots per game, 27th in the league.
Sergei Bobrovsky is the probable starter for Toronto. His numbers this season have not held up: an 88.6% save rate and a 3.34 goals-against average. Anthony Stolarz started Sunday's game in the second half of a back-to-back, with Bobrovsky in net the night before.
Nathan MacKinnon drives the attack with 30 points in 18 games. Artturi Lehkonen has 12 goals, though he is converting on 31.6% of his shots, a pace that rarely lasts. Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to start for Colorado and has been steadier than his counterpart, at a 90.1% save rate.
Toronto's special-teams lifeline
The Leafs have one clear edge. Their power play (power-play goals per opportunity) converts at 28.6%, and their penalty kill stops 85.9% of chances. Both rank 5th in the league.
Colorado's penalty kill sits at 78.2%, 14th, so every Toronto man advantage matters. The problem is getting them: the Leafs draw just 2.95 power plays per game, 25th. Auston Matthews, with 27 points, and William Nylander, with 11 goals, need those chances to keep pace.
Toronto has gone quiet lately, scoring two, two and zero goals during its three-game losing streak. It won the first meeting this season 6-3 in Denver.
Who is in the lineup
The biggest question belongs to Colorado. Cale Makar left Sunday's practice with a trainer for what the team called precautionary reasons, with an undisclosed lower-body issue. He was due to be reevaluated Monday and traveled with the team, but no update has followed. He has 21 points in 17 games. Colorado recalled defenseman Alex Gagne on Monday, and Josh Manson remains on injured reserve.
Toronto's list is longer. Morgan Rielly, Jack Roslovic and Colton Sissons were all day-to-day with lower-body injuries as of Monday. Kirill Marchenko is on injured reserve, and Max Domi remains out after back surgery. Ben Danford was reported Monday to have a broken wrist.
Home, road and the market
Colorado has been far better at home than away, going 3-5-0 on the road. Toronto has not protected its building either, at 4-6-1 at Scotiabank Arena.
The market backs the Avalanche at -154, with the Leafs at +129 and Toronto getting +1.5 on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the total of 6.5 has moved since our feed first saw the game. Colorado has covered the puck line in 11 of 18 games, while Toronto's mix of high shot volume against and strong special teams makes the total harder to read.
Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs line movement and odds
| Book | Avalanche ML | Leafs ML | Avalanche spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -185 | +145 | -1.5 (+120) | o6.5 (-155) |
| DraftKings | -175 | +145 | -1.5 (+140) | o6.5 (-142) |
| ESPN BET | -170 | +145 | -1.5 (+150) | o6.5 (-125) |
| Fanatics | -175 | +145 | -1.5 (+135) | o6.5 (-140) |
| FanDuel | -182 | +150 | -1.5 (+128) | o6.5 (-142) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -175 | +135 | -1.5 (+140) | o6.5 (-120) |
| Caesars | -173 | +145 | -1.5 (+132) | o7 (+113) |
Where the money is on Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colorado Avalanche: 78% of bets, 87% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs: 22% of bets, 13% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado Avalanche -1.5: 88% of bets, 92% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5: 13% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 90% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 6.5: 10% of bets, 1% of the money.
Key players
- Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche): Leads Colorado with 30 points and 65 shots in 18 games this season.
- Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche): Has 21 points in 17 games this season, but his status is unclear after leaving Sunday's practice.
- Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): Leads the team with 12 goals this season on a 31.6% shooting rate.
- Mackenzie Blackwood (Colorado Avalanche): The probable starter carries a 90.1% save rate and a 2.6 goals-against average this season.
- Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs): Has 27 points, including 11 goals, in 19 games this season.
- William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs): Matches Matthews with 11 goals this season on 56 shots.
- Sergei Bobrovsky (Toronto Maple Leafs): The probable starter has an 88.6% save rate and a 3.34 goals-against average this season.
- Anthony Stolarz (Toronto Maple Leafs): Has outperformed Bobrovsky with a 90.8% save rate in 7 games this season.
Numbers that matter
| Colorado goals per game | 4.0 | Ranks 3rd of 32 and faces a Toronto team allowing the 27th-most shots. |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto power play | 28.6% | Ranks 5th and goes against a Colorado penalty kill ranked 14th. |
| Toronto power plays drawn | 2.95 | Ranks 25th, limiting how often the Leafs can use their best weapon. |
| Colorado road record | 3-5-0 | A sharp drop from the Avalanche's form at home. |
| Colorado moneyline | -154 | The Avalanche are road favorites despite losing to Toronto earlier this season. |
Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs: quick answers
What was the final score of Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Colorado Avalanche 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (final). Colorado Avalanche covered the closing puck line (Colorado Avalanche -1.5). The game went over the closing total of 6.5.
What is the over/under for Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
No: Colorado Avalanche has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colorado Avalanche: 78% of bets, 87% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs: 22% of bets, 13% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado Avalanche -1.5: 88% of bets, 92% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5: 13% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 90% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 6.5: 10% of bets, 1% of the money.