Minnesota Wild vs Montréal Canadiens prediction: Fowler and Wallstedt duel as Montreal's penalty habit meets Wild power play

The crease Price left behind

The Bell Centre honors Carey Price on Tuesday, adding him to its Ring of Honor after his Hall of Fame induction. The goalie expected in front of that celebration is Jacob Fowler, and he has earned the spotlight. Fowler carries a .925 save percentage and a 2.15 goals-against average through 10 games. He made 26 saves in Saturday's 4-2 win in Toronto, a night remembered partly for a fan throwing an apple at him. Neither team has confirmed its starter.

The drop-off behind Fowler is steep. Jakub Dobes sits at .847, and Sam Montembeault remains on injured reserve.

Minnesota's probable starter, Jesper Wallstedt, has matched Fowler: .922 and a 1.99 GAA over 16 games. Calvin Pickard started the second half of Saturday's back-to-back, so Wallstedt should come in rested. With both starters this sharp, the goaltending is about even, and the rest of the game has to settle it.

Montreal can't stay out of the box

This is the clearest gap on the board. Montreal is shorthanded 4.06 times per game, 30th of 32, and ranks 27th in penalty minutes. That is a bad habit against a Wild power play that scores on 26.5% of its chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 8th in the league.

The Canadiens can't make up the difference with the man advantage either. Their power play converts 15.4%, 28th. Both penalty kills sit at 78.3%, near the middle of the league, so the edge comes down to who takes the penalties.

There is one caution for Minnesota. Tampa Bay scored three power-play goals in Saturday's overtime loss after the Wild took too many penalties.

Fast starts, different engines

Montreal leads the league with 1.35 first-period goals per game. The Wild allow just 0.63 in opening periods, 4th, and 2.26 goals per game overall, the fewest in the NHL.

Minnesota also controls the puck better. The Wild own 53.7% of the shots in their games (shot share), 6th, while Montreal sits 16th at 49.4%. The Canadiens have offset that with finishing. They come in on a 10-game point streak and have won seven of their last eight.

Kirill Kaprizov is the problem Montreal has to solve. He has 16 goals and 31 points in 19 games and is coming off a four-point night against San Jose. Last season the teams split two meetings, and each won 4-3 on home ice.

Who's in, who's out

Montreal's lineup is thin. Ivan Demidov (ankle) is on injured reserve. Mike Matheson (lower body) is out, and the latest update, from Nov. 7, said he needed about another week. Nick Suzuki was ruled out Nov. 3 with a hand injury, and there has been no clear update on him since, so his status is unsettled. Jake Evans hurt his hand at Monday's practice and is day-to-day. Josh Anderson (personal) is listed as day-to-day, but reports conflict on whether he played Saturday.

Minnesota's blue line is also short. Jared Spurgeon and Brock Faber are on injured reserve but traveling with the team, and Faber has skated with teammates. Michael McCarron (upper body) could be an option Tuesday. Nick and Marcus Foligno returned Saturday. Tonight opens a three-game road trip.

What the market sees

The Wild are -125 on the moneyline and Montreal is +105, with Montreal +1.5 on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the 6.5 total has moved since our feed first saw the game.

The teams' records pull the total in opposite directions. Minnesota games have gone under 12 times in 19, while Montreal games have gone over 11 times in 17. The Wild are 13-6 on the puck line this season.