Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets prediction: Lightning's back-to-back puts Dennis Hildeby in Columbus spotlight
Tampa Bay outshoots almost everyone, but on the second night of a back-to-back, its backup goalie faces a Columbus team that has owned this matchup.
| Line | Tampa Bay Lightning -115 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Tampa Bay should control the shot count, and Columbus needs its goalie to steal enough saves to make its weak offense count.
- Watch the crease: Dennis Hildeby is the probable Lightning starter on a back-to-back, opposite probable Columbus starter Jet Greaves.
- The market sees a near-even game, Tampa Bay -115 and Columbus -105, with the total unmoved at 6.5.
Second night, second goalie
The Lightning arrive in Columbus a night after an 8-3 rout in Buffalo, and that schedule shapes everything here. Tampa Bay closes a four-game road trip on the back end of a back-to-back, and Dennis Hildeby is the probable starter. Nothing is confirmed, and Andrei Vasilevskiy was projected to start in Buffalo.
Hildeby has a .880 save percentage and a 2.95 goals-against average in four appearances, a small sample. Vasilevskiy has not been much sharper at .884. That fits a team problem: the Lightning's team save percentage (all goals allowed per shot against) ranks 25th of 32.
Columbus lists Jet Greaves as its probable starter, though one preview called the choice open between Greaves and Cam Talbot. The gap is real. Greaves sits at .880 with a 3.36 GAA, while Talbot is at .907 and 2.51. The Blue Jackets also have two days of rest.
Volume against finishing
Tampa Bay scores 3.94 goals per game, 4th in the league. It gets there by tilting the ice. Its shot share (a team's share of all shots in its games) is 54.1%, 3rd in the NHL, and it allows just 24.9 shots per game.
Columbus is the opposite problem. The Blue Jackets score 2.44 goals per game, 29th, and their 9.2% shooting rate also ranks 29th. Kent Johnson has been the exception, with 8 goals on a 23.5% shooting rate. If the Lightning keep Columbus to the outside, the Blue Jackets' best path may be faceoffs. They win 53.7% of draws, 6th in the league, which can buy a few extra possessions.
The Lightning also start fast, scoring 1.22 first-period goals per game, 3rd in the NHL. That tests a tired road team's legs early in a good way.
Special teams favor nobody
Neither penalty kill inspires much trust. Tampa Bay kills 72.5% of penalties, 25th, and Columbus is barely better at 73.9%, 23rd.
The difference is who gets the chances. The Lightning draw 3.67 power plays per game, 4th, while Columbus draws 2.56, 30th. The Blue Jackets' power play converts only 17.1% of its chances, 27th. That edge in opportunities matters most when both kills are this vulnerable.
Who is missing
Brayden Point is on injured reserve after leaving Sunday's loss to Winnipeg with a lower-body injury, and he will not play. Jon Cooper said a timetable update would come after Saturday. Defenseman Erik Cernak is listed out on Thursday's league report. Several other Lightning depth players have been listed with injuries in recent days, but their current status is unclear.
Columbus is without Conor Garland, who is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury, and Isac Lundeström remains on long-term injured reserve after Achilles surgery. Sean Monahan left a recent game after blocking a shot and said he expected to return Tuesday. That return has not been confirmed.
What the market says
Books have this close to even. Tampa Bay is -115 on the moneyline and Columbus -105, with the home side getting +1.5 on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the 6.5 total has moved since our feed first saw the game.
History leans toward Columbus. The Blue Jackets swept all three meetings last season, including an 8-5 win at home. This is the first meeting of this season.
The split between the road and home records matters too. Tampa Bay is 8-0-0 at home but 4-4-2 away, while Columbus is 6-4-0 at Nationwide Arena. On totals, Lightning games have gone over 11 times in 18, and Blue Jackets games have stayed under 9 times in 16.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets line movement and odds
| Book | Lightning ML | Jackets ML | Lightning spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+195) | o6 (-125) |
| BetRivers | -114 | -105 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (+104) |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+195) | o6.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+185) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+190) | o6.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | -114 | -105 | -1.5 (+205) | o6.5 (+104) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | -115 | -103 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (+100) |
Where the money is on Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning: 81% of bets, 59% of the money; Columbus Blue Jackets: 19% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 80% of bets, 31% of the money; Under 6.5: 20% of bets, 70% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning (2 wallets, $8,970) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (3 wallets, $2,250). Largest: Forked-Puffin $8,920 on Tampa Bay Lightning, Growing-Comestible $2,132 on Columbus Blue Jackets, Thirsty-Worker $64 on Columbus Blue Jackets. Spread: Columbus Blue Jackets (1 wallet, $568). Largest: Growing-Comestible $568 on Columbus Blue Jackets.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets stats (this season)
| Stat | Tampa Bay Lightning | Columbus Blue Jackets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4-2 | 7-9-0 |
| Goals per game | 3.94 (4th of 32) | 2.44 (29th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.06 (15th of 32) | 3.19 (18th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.89 (6th of 32) | -0.75 (27th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 29.4 (5th of 32) | 26.6 (21st of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 24.9 (4th of 32) | 27.9 (18th of 32) |
| Shot share | 54.1% (3rd of 32) | 48.8% (20th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 13.4% (6th of 32) | 9.2% (29th of 32) |
| Team save % | 87.8% (25th of 32) | 88.6% (17th of 32) |
| Power play % | 21.2% (18th of 32) | 17.1% (27th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 72.5% (25th of 32) | 73.9% (23rd of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 49.5% (17th of 32) | 53.7% (6th of 32) |
Key players
- Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning): Leads Tampa Bay with 26 points in 18 games this season, and he is coming off a hat trick in Buffalo.
- Brandon Hagel (Tampa Bay Lightning): His 11 goals on 70 shots lead the team in both this season.
- Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning): He has scored 10 goals on a 20.8% shooting rate this season.
- Dennis Hildeby (Tampa Bay Lightning): He owns a .880 save percentage across four appearances this season.
- Kent Johnson (Columbus Blue Jackets): Leads Columbus with 16 points and 8 goals in 16 games this season.
- Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets): Logs 28.3 minutes a night and has 14 points this season.
- Jet Greaves (Columbus Blue Jackets): Carries a .880 save percentage and 3.36 GAA in nine games this season.
- Cam Talbot (Columbus Blue Jackets): His .907 save percentage is the best of the four goalies in this matchup this season.
Numbers that matter
| Tampa Bay shot share | 54.1% | Ranks 3rd in the NHL, so the Lightning usually control the run of play. |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus goals per game | 2.44 | Ranks 29th, a thin margin against even a tired opponent. |
| Tampa Bay team save % | 87.8% | Ranks 25th, and the backup is expected to start on a back-to-back. |
| Power plays drawn per game | 3.67 | Tampa Bay ranks 4th in drawing penalties while Columbus ranks 30th. |
| Tampa Bay moneyline | -115 | A slim road favorite despite the back-to-back and three straight losses in this matchup last season. |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets: quick answers
What is the over/under for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets played?
Nationwide Arena, Columbus.
Has the line moved for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
No: Tampa Bay Lightning has stayed at -1.5, and the total moved from 5.5 to 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning: 81% of bets, 59% of the money; Columbus Blue Jackets: 19% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 80% of bets, 31% of the money; Under 6.5: 20% of bets, 70% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning (2 wallets, $8,970) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (3 wallets, $2,250). Largest: Forked-Puffin $8,920 on Tampa Bay Lightning, Growing-Comestible $2,132 on Columbus Blue Jackets, Thirsty-Worker $64 on Columbus Blue Jackets. Spread: Columbus Blue Jackets (1 wallet, $568). Largest: Growing-Comestible $568 on Columbus Blue Jackets. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.