Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers prediction: Florida's power play takes aim at Detroit's 27th-ranked penalty kill
The Panthers draw more power plays than anyone, and a slumping Red Wings team kills too few of them to survive a parade to the box.
| Line | Florida Panthers -170 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Expect a physical, penalty-filled night in which Florida's steady stream of power plays tilts things, unless Detroit's shot volume finally turns into goals.
- Florida's power play (24.4%, 10th) against Detroit's penalty kill (69.5%, 27th), with Detroit's starting goalie still unconfirmed.
- Florida is -170 on the moneyline and the total has climbed from 5.5 to 6.0, even though Detroit ranks 27th in scoring.
Florida lives on the power play
The Panthers have spent this season playing with an extra skater more than anyone else. They draw 4.32 power plays per game, the most in the league. They convert 24.4% of those chances (power-play goals per opportunity), 10th of 32.
That is a dangerous mix for Detroit. The Red Wings' penalty kill, the share of opponent power plays they survive without allowing a goal, sits at 69.5%, 27th in the NHL. Each Florida power play is a real threat.
The Panthers give some of it back. They are shorthanded 4.11 times a game, the most in the league, and they lead the NHL in penalty minutes. Their kill holds up, though, at 85.9% (6th). If this turns into a special-teams game, Florida holds the better hand at both ends.
An open question in Detroit's net
Jacob Markstrom is the probable starter for Florida, but the team hasn't confirmed it. He made 37 saves in Tuesday's win at Columbus. He carries a .900 save percentage and a 2.56 goals-against average.
Detroit's choice matters more. The probable listing names John Gibson, and Detroit has not confirmed a starter. Gibson left the Nov. 3 game in Tampa with a lower-body injury, then returned to start and lose Tuesday at St. Louis. His season has been rough: .866 with a 3.43 goals-against average.
Daniil Tarasov has been the steadier option at .919. He also knows this building. He spent last season with Florida and beat the Panthers here on Nov. 2. Neither team is on a back-to-back, so rest doesn't settle the decision.
Detroit shoots plenty, finishes little
The Red Wings don't lack for shots. They average 29.1 per game, 8th in the league. But they convert just 8.9% of them, 31st, which leaves them 27th in goals.
The skid shows it. Detroit has lost four straight since its 5-3 win here: 4-2 at Tampa, 2-1 to Vegas, 4-0 at Colorado and 3-2 at St. Louis. Lucas Raymond leads the team with 18 points. Alex DeBrincat has put 67 shots on goal.
Florida has more finishers. Matthew Tkachuk has 23 assists in 19 games. Sam Reinhart is one goal from 200 with Florida after Tuesday's goal moved him past Jonathan Huberdeau for second on the franchise list.
Both lineups have holes
Florida is still without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, both on injured reserve with knee injuries. Jonah Gadjovich (neck) and Sandis Vilmanis (undisclosed) are also out. This is a Panthers team rebuilding itself after winning back-to-back Stanley Cups and then missing the playoffs last season.
Detroit got Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton back from injured reserve Tuesday. Simon Edvinsson remains on the non-roster list amid a contract dispute. Dylan Larkin is still listed on injured reserve with a suspension, but that entry dates to Oct. 31 and his status is unclear.
What the market sees
Florida is a -170 moneyline favorite, with Detroit at +144, and the Panthers lay 1.5 goals on the puck line. They have covered that line in only 8 of 19 games this season.
The total moved from 5.5 when our feed first saw the game to 6.0. Both teams are 9-10 on overs this season, so the move looks more like a bet on Florida's power-play volume than on either team's history. Florida is 4-2-0 at home.
Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers line movement and odds
| Book | Wings ML | Panthers ML | Wings spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 | +1.5 (-165) | o6 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +150 | -180 | +1.5 (-177) | o5.5 (-137) |
| DraftKings | +142 | -170 | +1.5 (-180) | o5.5 (-135) |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 | +1.5 (-175) | o5.5 (-135) |
| Fanatics | +145 | -175 | +1.5 (-180) | o5.5 (-135) |
| FanDuel | +146 | -178 | +1.5 (-176) | o5.5 (-134) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -170 | +1.5 (-185) | o5.5 (-130) |
| Caesars | +149 | -176 | +1.5 (-179) | o6 (-108) |
Where the money is on Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Detroit Red Wings: 14% of bets, 3% of the money; Florida Panthers: 86% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida Panthers -1.5: 87% of bets, 98% of the money; Detroit Red Wings +1.5: 13% of bets, 2% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 5.5: 50% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 5.5: 50% of bets, 10% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Detroit Red Wings (1 wallet, $2,145). Largest: Forked-Puffin $2,145 on Detroit Red Wings.
Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers stats (this season)
| Stat | Detroit Red Wings | Florida Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-9-3 | 10-7-2 |
| Goals per game | 2.58 (27th of 32) | 3.16 (15th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.00 (12th of 32) | 2.95 (11th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | -0.42 (23rd of 32) | 0.21 (12th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 29.1 (8th of 32) | 29.5 (4th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 25.9 (8th of 32) | 25.9 (8th of 32) |
| Shot share | 52.9% (9th of 32) | 53.2% (6th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 8.9% (31st of 32) | 10.7% (22nd of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.4% (18th of 32) | 88.6% (15th of 32) |
| Power play % | 21.3% (17th of 32) | 24.4% (10th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 69.5% (27th of 32) | 85.9% (6th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 49.0% (21st of 32) | 47.4% (25th of 32) |
Key players
- Matthew Tkachuk (Florida Panthers): Leads Florida with 27 points this season, 23 of them assists.
- Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers): Has 10 goals this season and needs one more to reach 200 with Florida.
- Brady Tkachuk (Florida Panthers): Has 10 goals on 69 shots this season, along with 56 penalty minutes.
- Jacob Markstrom (Florida Panthers): Owns a .900 save percentage this season and made 37 saves Tuesday.
- Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings): Leads Detroit with 18 points in 19 games this season.
- Alex DeBrincat (Detroit Red Wings): Leads the team with 67 shots on goal this season and has 7 goals.
- John Gibson (Detroit Red Wings): Has struggled to an .866 save percentage and a 3.43 goals-against average this season.
- Daniil Tarasov (Detroit Red Wings): Former Panther with a .919 save percentage this season who beat Florida on Nov. 2.
Numbers that matter
| Florida power plays drawn | 4.32 | The most per game in the NHL, a steady supply of chances against a weak kill. |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit penalty kill | 69.5% | Ranks 27th of 32, the clearest weak spot in this matchup. |
| Detroit shooting % | 8.9% | Ranks 31st despite shot volume that ranks 8th, which explains the four-game skid. |
| Florida moneyline | -170 | The market backs the home team even after Detroit won here 5-3 on Nov. 2. |
Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers: quick answers
What is the over/under for Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET.
Where is Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers played?
Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise.
Has the line moved for Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers?
No: Detroit Red Wings has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 5.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Detroit Red Wings: 14% of bets, 3% of the money; Florida Panthers: 86% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida Panthers -1.5: 87% of bets, 98% of the money; Detroit Red Wings +1.5: 13% of bets, 2% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 5.5: 50% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 5.5: 50% of bets, 10% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Detroit Red Wings (1 wallet, $2,145). Largest: Forked-Puffin $2,145 on Detroit Red Wings. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.