Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils prediction: Hellebuyck's Devils face the Capitals' sharpshooters in Newark
New Jersey wins the shot count almost every night; Washington wins by converting the few chances it gets, and Connor Hellebuyck stands between those two styles.
| Line | New Jersey Devils -149 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6 |
- Expect New Jersey to control the puck and outshoot Washington, with the Capitals relying on finishing and their league-high shot blocking.
- Watch Hellebuyck, the probable starter at .913, against Alex Tuch, who has 11 goals on 42 shots.
- The Devils sit at -149 with the total at 6.0, unchanged since first seen; New Jersey is 8-11 on the puck line.
Hellebuyck against hot finishers
Thursday opens a home-and-home, two games in three days, and the Devils have looked like a different team since the Capitals beat them 4-2 on October 17. They are 9-2-0 in 11 games since that night, and the biggest change since then is in goal.
Connor Hellebuyck, acquired October 23, is expected to start, and the Devils reportedly want him in net for both games. In five appearances for New Jersey he has a .913 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average. Jake Allen, who started Tuesday's 4-2 loss in Winnipeg while Hellebuyck rested, sits at .880.
That matters against this Washington roster. The Capitals rank 7th in shooting percentage (goals per shot) at 12.9%. Alex Tuch has turned 42 shots into 11 goals, and Jordan Kyrou is scoring on 20.8% of his. Those rates rarely hold over a full season, and a goalie playing as well as Hellebuyck is the kind of opponent who brings them back down.
New Jersey owns the puck
The Devils are built on volume. Their 57.1% shot share (their share of all shots in their games) ranks 2nd in the league, and they allow just 24.7 shots per game, 3rd. Washington generates 27.1 shots per game, 19th.
The Capitals answer by getting in front of pucks. They block 16.9 shots per game, the most in the NHL, so expect New Jersey's shot advantage to look bigger in attempts than in shots on goal.
The weak spot for the Devils is finishing. They rank 23rd in shooting percentage at 10.7%. Jack Hughes helps with 26 points in 19 games, a six-game point streak and 76 shots. Washington counters with Logan Thompson, the probable starter, at .891 this season.
Watch the opening 20 minutes. The Capitals score 1.12 first-period goals per game (7th) but allow 1.19 (27th), while the Devils allow just 0.68 in first periods, 6th.
A penalty kill that rarely works
New Jersey's penalty kill is a real problem: 65.9%, 30th of 32. The Devils hide it by staying out of the box. They are shorthanded 2.16 times per game, fewest in the league.
Washington isn't built to exploit that. The Capitals draw 2.75 power plays per game (29th) and convert 18.2% of them (25th). If this game turns on special teams, it will most likely be a Devils kill that gets few chances to fail.
Bodies missing on both blue lines
The Devils placed Anthony Mantha on long-term injured reserve Wednesday with a neck injury, retroactive to November 7. Defenseman Johnathan Kovacevic was hurt Tuesday in Winnipeg and is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. Seamus Casey remains out after knee surgery.
Washington is without defensemen Rasmus Sandin (knee) and Vincent Desharnais (abdomen), plus forward Patrick Thomas (upper body). Sandin is traveling with the team on this road trip but remains on injured reserve. The Capitals arrive off a 3-2 overtime win in Ottawa, where Cole Hutson won it 74 seconds into overtime and Alex Ovechkin's assist tied Nicklas Backstrom's franchise record of 762.
What the market says
New Jersey is a -149 favorite with Washington at +126, and the total sits at 6.0. Neither the puck line nor the total has moved since our feed first saw the game Wednesday.
The puck line has been a tough ask for both teams. The Devils are 8-11 against it this season, and three of their last five wins came in overtime or a shootout. Washington is 5-11 on the puck line, but the Capitals have gone over in 10 of 16 games, so their scoring and their goals against both tend to run high. The Devils' at-home record of 8-2-0 helps explain the price.
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils line movement and odds
| Book | Capitals ML | Devils ML | Capitals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 | +1.5 (-190) | o6 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +135 | -162 | +1.5 (-200) | o6.5 (+108) |
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 | +1.5 (-205) | o6.5 (+110) |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -145 | +1.5 (-200) | o6.5 (+110) |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 | +1.5 (-215) | o6.5 (+110) |
| FanDuel | +126 | -152 | +1.5 (-210) | o5.5 (-142) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -145 | +1.5 (-210) | o6.5 (+105) |
| Caesars | +127 | -150 | +1.5 (-200) | o6 (-113) |
Where the money is on Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils
On the Kalshi moneyline: Washington Capitals: 29% of bets, 27% of the money; New Jersey Devils: 71% of bets, 73% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Jersey Devils -1.5: 83% of bets, 58% of the money; Washington Capitals +1.5: 17% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 88% of bets, 87% of the money; Under 6.5: 13% of bets, 13% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: New Jersey Devils (1 wallet, $2,223). Largest: Tattered-Screamer $2,223 on New Jersey Devils. Spread: New Jersey Devils (1 wallet, $86). Largest: Barren-Hospital-Pilgrim $86 on New Jersey Devils.
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils stats (this season)
| Stat | Washington Capitals | New Jersey Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-6-0 | 13-6-0 |
| Goals per game | 3.50 (8th of 32) | 3.53 (7th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.31 (20th of 32) | 2.89 (9th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.19 (13th of 32) | 0.63 (8th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 27.1 (19th of 32) | 32.9 (2nd of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 27.7 (16th of 32) | 24.7 (3rd of 32) |
| Shot share | 49.5% (15th of 32) | 57.1% (2nd of 32) |
| Shooting % | 12.9% (7th of 32) | 10.7% (23rd of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.0% (23rd of 32) | 88.3% (21st of 32) |
| Power play % | 18.2% (25th of 32) | 18.0% (26th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 77.8% (15th of 32) | 65.9% (30th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 47.6% (24th of 32) | 49.7% (16th of 32) |
Key players
- Connor Hellebuyck (New Jersey Devils): In five games since joining New Jersey this season, he has a .913 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average.
- Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils): Leads the Devils with 26 points in 19 games this season, carrying a six-game point streak.
- Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils): Has 15 assists among his 19 points this season.
- Logan Thompson (Washington Capitals): Owns an .891 save percentage and 3.09 goals-against average in 12 games this season.
- Alex Tuch (Washington Capitals): Has scored 11 goals on 42 shots this season, a 26.2% shooting rate.
- Dylan Strome (Washington Capitals): Leads Washington with 15 points, 12 of them assists, in 16 games this season.
Numbers that matter
| Devils shot share | 57.1% | New Jersey ranks 2nd in the league at controlling shots, giving it a strong territorial edge. |
|---|---|---|
| Capitals shooting % | 12.9% | Washington ranks 7th at converting shots, a finishing rate that faces a tough test against Hellebuyck. |
| Hellebuyck save % | .913 | The probable Devils starter has been far sharper than Jake Allen's .880 this season. |
| Devils penalty kill | 65.9% | New Jersey ranks 30th, but it is shorthanded fewer times than any other team. |
| Devils moneyline | -149 | The home favorite's price, with the total steady at 6.0 since our feed first saw the game. |
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils: quick answers
What is the over/under for Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils?
The total is 6 goals.
When is Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:09 PM ET.
Where is Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils played?
Prudential Center, Newark.
Has the line moved for Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils?
No: Washington Capitals has stayed at +1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Washington Capitals: 29% of bets, 27% of the money; New Jersey Devils: 71% of bets, 73% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New Jersey Devils -1.5: 83% of bets, 58% of the money; Washington Capitals +1.5: 17% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 88% of bets, 87% of the money; Under 6.5: 13% of bets, 13% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: New Jersey Devils (1 wallet, $2,223). Largest: Tattered-Screamer $2,223 on New Jersey Devils. Spread: New Jersey Devils (1 wallet, $86). Largest: Barren-Hospital-Pilgrim $86 on New Jersey Devils. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.