Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators prediction: Ullmark's uncertain status hangs over Ottawa's bid to slow MacKinnon
Colorado brings the league's top-scoring offense to Ottawa, and whether the Senators get their best goalie or his backup may decide how much of it lands.
| Line | Colorado Avalanche -120 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Colorado pushes volume and Ottawa leans on structure; the Avalanche should own the shot count, so Ottawa's goalie has to steal it.
- The crease: Ullmark is day-to-day with a lower-body injury, and the gap between him and Samuel Ersson this season is enormous.
- Colorado is a modest -120 favorite with the total at 6.5; Colorado's games are 13-6 to the over, Ottawa's 7-12.
The crease question in Ottawa
Two teams with identical 11-6-2 records, and one huge unknown. Linus Ullmark is listed as Ottawa's probable starter, but he is day-to-day with a lower-body injury as of the latest injury report. Samuel Ersson is the expected starter if Ullmark can't go. Treat the Senators' goalie as unsettled until warmups.
The stakes of that decision are hard to overstate. Ullmark has a .945 save percentage and a 1.33 goals-against average in 8 games. Ersson sits at .884 with a 3.11 GAA in 10 games. Eight games is a small sample, but the difference between those two lines is the difference between Ottawa hanging around and Ottawa chasing.
Colorado's side is clearer. Mackenzie Blackwood is the probable starter, carrying a .901 save percentage over 15 games, with Scott Wedgewood expected to take a later game on the trip.
Firepower against a thin attack
Colorado scores 4.11 goals a game, 1st in the league, and it gets there on volume as well as finish: 30.3 shots a game ranks 3rd. Nathan MacKinnon drives it with 30 points, and Artturi Lehkonen has 13 goals while converting at an unsustainable-looking clip.
Ottawa can't match that pace. The Senators average 25.6 shots a game, 25th, and own 48.9% of the shots in their games, which is their shot share. Their best counter is a strong start: Ottawa allows 0.63 first-period goals a game, 3rd in the league. Tim Stutzle, with 23 points, carries the scoring load.
Colorado did come off the rails earlier this month, losing 7-2 in Columbus, after which coach Jared Bednar said he had to change how he handles the team's inconsistency. The Avalanche have since won two of three, including a 6-3 win in Toronto on Tuesday.
Ottawa's penalty problem
The Senators draw plenty of power plays, 3.79 a game for 2nd in the league, and then waste them. Their power play, meaning goals per opportunity, converts 12.5%, which ranks 31st.
The other side of the ledger is worse for them. Ottawa goes shorthanded 3.58 times a game, 29th, and its penalty kill sits 20th. Giving MacKinnon and Cale Makar extra time with the man advantage is the quickest way for this game to get away from the home team.
One caution on Makar: he left Sunday's practice early with a trainer. Bednar called it precautionary and said Makar was traveling with the team, but his status for tonight has not been confirmed. Colorado is already without defenseman Josh Manson, on injured reserve with a left ankle injury. Ottawa is missing Nick Cousins, Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund.
What the market is pricing
Colorado is a -120 favorite and Ottawa sits at even money, with the Senators +1.5 on the puck line. Neither the puck line nor the total of 6.5 has moved since our feed first saw the game.
The total is where the styles collide. Colorado's games have gone over 13 times and under 6 times. Ottawa's run the other way at 7-12, and each of its last three games stayed under. Home ice favors Ottawa too: Colorado is 4-5-0 on the road. Last season's meetings split, an 8-2 Colorado win in Denver and a 5-2 Ottawa win at home.
Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators line movement and odds
| Book | Avalanche ML | Senators ML | Avalanche spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+190) | o6 (-130) |
| BetRivers | -120 | +102 | -1.5 (+195) | o6.5 (-106) |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (-102) |
| ESPN BET | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+190) | o6.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.5 (+100) |
| FanDuel | -126 | +105 | -1.5 (+194) | o6.5 (-104) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +100 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | -121 | +102 | -1.5 (+205) | o6.5 (+100) |
Where the money is on Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colorado Avalanche: 73% of bets, 64% of the money; Ottawa Senators: 27% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado Avalanche -1.5: 60% of bets, 84% of the money; Ottawa Senators +1.5: 40% of bets, 16% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 43% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 6.5: 57% of bets, 84% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Colorado Avalanche (1 wallet, $3,180) vs Ottawa Senators (2 wallets, $930). Largest: Tattered-Screamer $3,180 on Colorado Avalanche, Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $866 on Ottawa Senators, 0x842c… $64 on Ottawa Senators.
Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators stats (this season)
| Stat | Colorado Avalanche | Ottawa Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-6-2 | 11-6-2 |
| Goals per game | 4.11 (1st of 32) | 3.05 (17th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.05 (14th of 32) | 3.00 (12th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 1.05 (4th of 32) | 0.05 (15th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 30.3 (3rd of 32) | 25.6 (25th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 27.4 (15th of 32) | 26.7 (12th of 32) |
| Shot share | 52.5% (10th of 32) | 48.9% (18th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 13.6% (4th of 32) | 11.9% (13th of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.9% (12th of 32) | 88.8% (13th of 32) |
| Power play % | 22.6% (13th of 32) | 12.5% (31st of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 78.6% (13th of 32) | 76.5% (20th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 49.1% (20th of 32) | 53.8% (5th of 32) |
Key players
- Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche): Leads Colorado with 30 points (10 goals, 20 assists) through 19 games this season.
- Artturi Lehkonen (Colorado Avalanche): Has 13 goals this season on 31.0% shooting, a finishing rate that is hard to hold.
- Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche): Has 23 points in 18 games this season, though he left Sunday's practice early.
- Mackenzie Blackwood (Colorado Avalanche): Owns a .901 save percentage and 2.63 GAA over 15 games this season.
- Tim Stutzle (Ottawa Senators): Leads Ottawa with 23 points in 19 games this season.
- Drake Batherson (Ottawa Senators): Has 9 goals on 22.0% shooting this season.
- Linus Ullmark (Ottawa Senators): Posted a .945 save percentage and 1.33 GAA in 8 games this season before his lower-body injury.
- Samuel Ersson (Ottawa Senators): Sits at .884 with a 3.11 GAA in 10 games this season.
Numbers that matter
| Colorado goals a game | 4.11 | First in the league, built on 30.3 shots a game. |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa power play | 12.5% | Ranks 31st despite Ottawa drawing the 2nd-most power plays in the league. |
| Ullmark save percentage | .945 | Far above Ersson's .884, which is why Ottawa's starter matters so much. |
| Colorado moneyline | -120 | A modest road favorite against an Ottawa team with the same record. |
| Colorado over/under record | 13-6 | Colorado's games run high; Ottawa's have gone under 12 times in 19. |
Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators: quick answers
What is the over/under for Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:08 PM ET.
Where is Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators played?
Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa.
Has the line moved for Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators?
No: Colorado Avalanche has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Colorado Avalanche: 73% of bets, 64% of the money; Ottawa Senators: 27% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado Avalanche -1.5: 60% of bets, 84% of the money; Ottawa Senators +1.5: 40% of bets, 16% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 43% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 6.5: 57% of bets, 84% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Colorado Avalanche (1 wallet, $3,180) vs Ottawa Senators (2 wallets, $930). Largest: Tattered-Screamer $3,180 on Colorado Avalanche, Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $866 on Ottawa Senators, 0x842c… $64 on Ottawa Senators. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.